In the last Saturday Spotlight, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas and BYU were still ranked, TCU, UCLA and LSU received a combined 11 votes to crack the AP Top 25 (with the Tigers securing the most votes of the three) and Minnesota, North Carolina State and Washington all looked like potential dark horses in their respective conferences.
Basically, it’s been far too long. The number of teams contending for a playoff has decreased significantly and numerous teams are in dire situations when it comes to bowl contention. This article will provide three hot takes that will be tested in Week Nine.
Let’s get into it.
Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan State all make a bowl game
Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan State were all projected to make a bowl game heading into the 2022 season, with the Badgers even being a favorite to take the Big Ten West. However, slow starts immediately crushed those expectations, initially at least.
Each team’s first bout with the Power Five ended in an embarrassing loss, with Wisconsin and Nebraska going into them projected as heavy favorites. While the Badgers and Spartans were at least able to pull off FBS wins early on, the Cornhuskers started off a few steps behind.
They started the season 1-3, with their lone victory being a 21-point win against FCS North Dakota. They appropriately fired then-head coach Scott Frost after a Week Three loss to Georgia Southern, with Mickey Joseph being promoted to interim head coach.
Though the team was blown out in its following game against Oklahoma, it seems like Joseph has them on the right track.
Coming off a much-needed bye week following a rough performance against the Sooners, Nebraska won two straight games against Indiana and Rutgers before having its most impressive performance of the season in a loss to Purdue, a team well within the mix of contenders in the western division.
It enters Week Nine sporting a 3-4 record with No. 17 Illinois, Minnesota, No. 4 Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa remaining on its schedule. While I don’t expect them to conquer Michigan, the other four games are winnable for the Cornhuskers in my opinion.
The Fighting Illini may be a respectable 6-1 with strong wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota, but for the most part, their schedule has been easy. While their defense is clearly legitimate and doesn’t act as a crutch for its offense, unlike other teams in the Big Ten West, I believe Nebraska’s offense provides it with its biggest test yet.
The Cornhuskers put up 37 points and nearly 500 yards against a Boilermaker defense that’s giving up 352.8 yards per game. Add an extra week of preparation to that, with the team coming off a bye week, and Nebraska could sport enough improvements to earn Joseph his first ranked win as a head coach.
That would leave it with four wins and winnable matchups against Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, making a bowl game much more likely.
Wisconsin, who also has an interim head coach manning the wheel in Jim Leonhard, managed to defeat the aforementioned Boilermakers 35-24 in its most recent game, securing its fourth win of the season. It will return from its bye week with four unranked matchups against 6-2 Maryland, Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota.
The Badgers are 2-1 since the firing of Paul Chryst and have outscored their last three Big Ten opponents 105-65. Their 42-7 win over Northwestern might skew that a bit and they did lose to Michigan State in overtime but following that loss up with a two-score victory over Purdue displays improvement.
Going into Week Nine with a 4-4 record instead of a 3-5 one gives Wisconsin a much better chance of securing a bowl. Unfortunately, its bowl outlook won’t be affected this week due to its bye, but the Badgers do fit the theme of the take. Their loss to Michigan State also provided the Spartans with a much-needed boost, entering the toughest stretch of their season.
While the Spartans host two opponents that just edge Northwestern out for worst team in the conference (Indiana and Rutgers), the remaining three aren’t considered sure wins by any means. They face No. 4 Michigan this week, No. 17 Illinois next week and No. 13 Penn State to conclude the regular season.
It must win one of those to make a bowl game and to make matters worse, all three of those occur on the road. Many would project them to finish 5-7, but I say they finish 6-6.
Though Mel Tucker holds a 2-0 record against the Wolverines as the head coach of Michigan State, I expect Michigan to pull this one out in Week Nine. However, if the Spartans manage to keep it close, that would indicate they’re capable of beating Illinois or Penn State.
They’ve already shown progression, scoring 34 points in a win over Wisconsin after struggling offensively in the early goings of conference play. And just like Nebraska, they are coming off a bye week, so it’s likely that they’ve been able to work out some of the kinks displayed earlier in the season.
Tulane will win the American – but not over Cincinnati
I know Power Five teams typically take up discussion from the college football sphere, but the American conference provides competitive and interesting football right now. Even though we are only halfway through the season, I am going to call my shot with the division.
Tulane, Cincinnati and Central Florida currently lead the conference. Tulane’s success came out of nowhere from a historical perspective, while Cincinnati and UCF have dominated the conference in recent years.
For my take, I think the conference championship will have a bit of a shakeup with Tulane as the team to beat. However, this weekend’s match between UCF and Cincinnati will determine which of the two teams makes the championship, in my opinion, and I think UCF will win.
This opinion is somewhat asinine. To start, UCF is 5-2 in part due to a horrific performance against East Carolina; how could they suddenly beat a good team in Cincinnati? Additionally, when it comes to this game being a conference championship decider, both teams have yet to play Tulane, either. However, I believe that UCF has a shot to take down the favored Cincinnati and run the table to make the championship game over them.
It will require some changes from UCF’s perspective. UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has been solid, and he needs to have an excellent game to beat a good Cincinnati team. Additionally, UCF needs a more consistent run game, which they have shown in flashes.
As for Cincinnati, the Bearcats are still very good. However, all they need to do is lose this game and that aforementioned Tulane game and they could be on the outside of the conversation. I expect them to do well, but these rivalries remain unpredictable.
Despite this game not being as mainstream, it is a tad romantic. This matchup may be the last AAC showdown between the two teams before both move to the Big 12, and in the shorter term, this may be both teams’ last chances to claim dominance over the conference.
Keep an eye on those two teams this weekend; I have a feeling that Cincinnati coming to UCF’s homecoming game will make for a fun matchup.
As for Tulane, the former SEC school has the chance to force these two schools to exit from the conference with a whimper. I think they will do that against the winner of this game.
Tennessee overlooks Kentucky heading into its matchup with Georgia
The Vols are in the midst of a very difficult stretch of schedule, facing Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia within a span of four weeks. While I believe it is capable of finishing that span unscathed, a part of me feels like Kentucky could be the opponent that temporarily spoils its run.
It can be argued that the Wildcats should be undefeated heading into this game, with each loss they suffered this season having an asterisk next to it. In their loss to Ole Miss, two late fumbles within striking distance prevented them from completing what would have been an impressive comeback. Their next loss to South Carolina came without their star quarterback at the helm.
The Volunteer offense can move the ball against anyone, but the Kentucky defense might have the best chance of slowing it down. It has the second best defense in the conference in terms of both points and yards per game, and they’ve done that with a tougher schedule than Georgia.
Kentucky followed up two straight losses with a solid win over then-No. 16 Mississippi State before entering its bye week. Its defense held one of the more prolific passing attacks of the SEC to just over 200 passing yards and 17 points, re-establishing itself as the eastern dark horse it was expected to be coming into the season.
The rivals sit at opposite ends of the totem pole when it comes to pass defense, with Tennessee’s defense having consistently faltered in that regard this season. It currently sits in last in the SEC in opponent passing yards per game by a fair margin. If Levis can evade its pass rush, he should be able to put up one of the better performances of his season, one where he’s already been fairly efficient.
Couple this all with the game being a rivalry and preceding a matchup with Georgia, and you’ve got the recipe for a late season upset.
