Another week, another stacked slate. Whether it’s classic rivalries, ranked in-conference matchups, ranked out-of-conference matchups or intriguing Group of Five rematches, this week has it all.
Joining me is Reveille Sports Editor Peter Rauterkus, who will provide you guys with five extra picks this week. He’s already proven to have a knack for this, dominating our Bowl Pick ‘Em league last season, but does he have what it takes to finish one of these weeks with a winning record?
Let’s find out.
Henry’s Last Week: 2-3
Henry’s Season: 4-6
Speaking of finishing weeks with winning records, I sure haven’t.
My weeks have been identical, starting each with a loss before regaining hope with two straight wins. Then everything falls apart in the end. Currently, I’m 0-4 in games starting at 6:30 or later.
I now need to pull a 4-1 to convert my losing record into a winning one, but hey, at least now we’ve seen what everyone can and can’t do. So this week should be easier, right?
I certainly hope so, now let’s see what went wrong last week.
North Carolina vs. Appalachian State -1.5 Loss
This one had a similar feel to LSU-Florida State. If you watched both of these games, you’ll know what I’m talking about. If not, I’ll provide a brief rundown.
Sixty-two points were scored in the fourth quarter alone, with the Mountaineers putting up a staggering 40 points in pursuit of a comeback. They scored 21 points in the last four minutes and their last two touchdowns came in the last 39 seconds.
Both of those touchdowns were paired with a two-point conversion, one to take the lead and one to tie it with the game on the line. Both failed.
I won’t hang my head too much on this one. It was a painful loss, but I wouldn’t say it was bad.
Georgia -16 vs. Oregon Win
I wasn’t expecting this one to be particularly close, but wow this game was horrendous. Either Oregon is in for a particularly rough season or Georgia is fixing to dominate everyone in their path. Well, maybe both.
Stetson Bennett completed 80% of his passes for a career-high 368 yards and two touchdowns as Georgia outpaced the Ducks 571-313 in yardage. Defensively, they did what they do best, holding Oregon to three points.
I can’t imagine many people tuned into this game.
Cincinnati vs. Arkansas -6.5 Win
The SEC saved me this week, but just barely.
Cincinnati still has a great team, even after losing Desmond Ridder, Jerome Ford, Sauce Gardner and more from their playoff team from last season. The fact that they were in the game against a ranked SEC opponent in their opening matchup is incredibly impressive.
They put themselves in position to tie the game with a stop at the game’s conclusion, trailing 31-24 with 5:49 left in the fourth. But KJ Jefferson converted two third downs on the ground and the Razorbacks were able to run all that time off the clock.
I appreciate Cincinnati’s kicker missing two kicks too. One of those going in would have dropped my record for the week to 1-4.
Georgia State +12.5 vs. South Carolina Loss
This was one that I went back-and-forth on, being unsure of what version of Rattler would show up for his South Carolina debut. If 2020 Rattler had come out and the Gamecocks put up 40-50 points, Georgia State would not have kept up.
While I did lose this one, that wasn’t the case.
With just over 11 minutes in the third quarter, the Panthers took a 14-12 lead and were in position to at least keep the game close down the stretch. But, Rattler and South Carolina responded effectively, with the quarterback completing three of four passes for 52 yards and a touchdown on the next drive.
The Gamecocks would score another touchdown just two minutes later off a blocked punt, and just like that, they held a 14-point lead. They would keep the Panthers from scoring throughout the rest of the game, as their talented secondary clamped down and let nothing past them.
Not a bad loss though, Georgia State proved to be respectable at least.
Boise State +2.5 vs. Oregon State Loss
While I’m content with the first two losses, this one stung. I’ve never had success picking games involving Boise State, no matter which way I go with the pick. In this case, I was expecting them to play well and they did not.
I mentioned the Broncos returning 15 starters, but with that came the return of their unpredictability.
Hank Bachmeier, who I praised in the last pick ‘em article, turned the ball over three times and got benched in the second quarter. And a defense that I expected to hold things together fell apart in the first half, giving up back-to-back touchdown drives that featured a combined six plays.
I disregarded Oregon State as well, particularly on defense. The Beavers held Boise State to just 111 yards and forced four turnovers in the first half. They had some impressive wins last season and with added chemistry garnered through the offseason, they could cause problems in the PAC-12 this season.
I will acknowledge Boise State’s backup quarterback, Taylen Green, getting the Broncos within 10 points of tying it in the fourth quarter. They should be fine this season, even with Bachmeier still being listed as the starter.
Now, on to the picks.
Missouri vs. Kansas State, 11 a.m. CT, ESPN2
The Pick: Missouri +7.5
While it’s hard to gauge teams that have only faced lower-level opponents, one thing does come to mind when analyzing Missouri and Kansas State’s opening games: Adrian Martinez’s Wildcat debut against South Dakota of the Missouri Valley Conference was uninspiring.
Deuce Vaughn performed well as usual, rushing for seven yards per carry to begin the 2022 season with a 100-yard day. But outside of that, the Kansas State offense was mediocre. They scored just 34 points against an FCS opponent, with seven of those coming from special teams.
They may have shut out the Coyotes, but their opponents managed to get into Kansas State territory on four occasions, with their top-two rushers each contributing over five yards per rush.
Not saying the same Wildcat squad will come out on Saturday, but if it does, the Tigers know exactly who they need to key in on, and they looked good against Louisiana Tech minus a few turnovers.
In a rivalry that Missouri largely dominated while in the Big 12, I expect the Tigers to add to their win total.
Score: Missouri 21 Kansas State 17
Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh, 2:30 p.m. CT, ABC
The Pick: Tennessee -6
I’m not riding the SEC train or anything I swear.
I feel like this game is going to be largely offensive, similar to how Tennessee’s matchup with Purdue last season went. In this instance, I believe that Tennessee is better equipped for that kind of situation.
They possess two running backs in Jabari Small and Jaylin Wright that combined for over 1,400 total yards and 14 total touchdowns, along with an incredibly efficient quarterback in Hendon Hooker. Tennessee’s balance and skill on the offensive side of the ball trumps Pittsburgh’s in my opinion.
Score: Tennessee 52 Pittsburgh 38
Iowa State vs. Iowa, 3 p.m. CT, BTN
The Pick: Iowa State +3.5
This one feels obvious, which makes me a bit uneasy. Each team started their seasons with an FCS opponent, and one performance was much more notable for all the wrong reasons.
Iowa might have given up just three points and 120 yards, but the offense struggled to outpace both of those against a team they should have at minimum scored double digits against. While Iowa State’s defense doesn’t return a lot from last season, it should definitely be expected to be more difficult to score on than South Dakota State.
Hunter Dekkers impressed in his debut, completing over 80% of his passes and sporting a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4-to-1 against Southeast Missouri State. Sure, Iowa’s defense is scary and Dekkers could struggle, but I still expect he’ll be able to put his offense in a position to score enough to give them the edge.
In a matchup that Matt Campbell is currently 0-5 in, I expect he will finally pick up his first victory.
Score: Iowa State 18 Iowa 11 (four safeties and a field goal)
Northern Illinois vs. Tulsa, 6 p.m. CT, ESPN+
The Pick: Northern Illinois +6.5
Northern Illinois’s opening game was confusing.
Despite maintaining much of its depth on both sides of the ball, it struggled against an FCS opponent in Eastern Illinois. That roster won the MAC conference last season, went 1-1 against Power Five opponents and came four yards away from defeating Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl.
With how much experience this roster has, I doubt the same team comes out in this one. Tulsa plays in a tougher conference but has had to replace a lot of starters, and they gave up 40 points to a Wyoming offense that was completely halted by Illinois in Week 0.
The Golden Hurricane will still put up a ton of points, possibly winning the shootout, but this game should be decided by less than seven points. While they did lose to Wyoming, their passing attack produced in bunches against a solid secondary.
Score: Tulsa 45 Northern Illinois 41
Mississippi State vs. Arizona, 10:00 p.m. CT, FS1
The Pick: Arizona +10.5
This is a tricky one, considering both teams impressed in Week One, with Arizona being one of the unnoticed surprises from last Saturday. Each team beat respectable opponents by three or more scores, with the Bulldogs defeating Memphis 49-23 and the Wildcats defeating San Diego State 38-20.
With Arizona playing at home, I expect this one will be closer than people expect. The game is going to hang around that spread down the stretch, but with the way the Wildcat offense performed against the projected best defense in the Mountain West, I could see them closing the gap in the fourth.
It seems like Arizona football could be back, but don’t be surprised if I’m making that projection a little too early.
Score: Mississippi State 35 Arizona 27
Peter’s Picks
Arkansas vs. South Carolina, 11 a.m. CT, ESPN
The pick: South Carolina +8
Starting hot with an interesting SEC matchup, we have somewhat of a crossroads game as South Carolina travels to Fayetteville to face Arkansas. Both teams are coming off wins, albeit against different levels of competition.
Arkansas secured an impressive win against ranked Cincinnati, but didn’t necessarily look invincible as Cincinnati missed a number of opportunities to take control of the game. The secondary looked exposed at times, especially with Jalen Catalon leaving the game. Catalon’s status is still unknown for this game, and will be a major factor in the outcome.
South Carolina also won, but didn’t look amazing in a 35-14 win against Georgia State. I think this will be the game where Spencer Rattler and the offense start to gel though, giving Arkansas’ defense problems. South Carolina will keep it close and cover, but it won’t quite be enough to get a win on the road.
Score: Arkansas 38-31 South Carolina
Texas Tech vs. Houston, 3 p.m. CT, FS1
The pick: Texas Tech -4
Moving onto a spicy in-state matchup in Lubbock, Houston will look to notch a Power Five win over Texas Tech.
In short, I don’t see that happening.
Houston is coming off a narrow win over UTSA on the road. While UTSA is a solid team who won Conference USA last season, Houston did not look convincing as a possible Cinderella team this season as many predicted. The road environment seemed to have an effect, and that won’t get any easier for Houston this weekend.
Texas Tech is coming off a dominant 63-10 win over Murray State, putting up over 600 yards of total offense. That did come against an overmatched opponent, but the offensive firepower is still there for the Red Raiders. I think that will be too much for Houston to handle this early in the season, leading to Texas Tech pulling away late and winning a high scoring game.
Score: Texas Tech 48-38 Houston
Liberty vs. UAB, 5 p.m. CT, ESPN+
The pick: Liberty +6
In my Group of Five game of the week, we have one of the most overshadowed good games of the entire weekend. Liberty and UAB are both perennial contenders in their respective conferences and have put together some solid seasons over the last few years.
Liberty lost a lot after last season, highlighted by star quarterback Malik Willis. That loss was evident last week in a narrow win over Southern Miss, but I think we will see improvement heading into week two.
UAB was dominant last week in a 59-0 win over Alabama A&M. The Blazers looked polished in all three phases, which must continue heading into a tough road game like this one. UAB also returns most of its offensive production from last season, led by leading rusher DeWayne McBride.
UAB is the better team on paper, which I think will put them over the top in the end. However, experienced Head Coach Hugh Freeze will be key in matching up against first time Head Coach Bryant Vincent at UAB. Freeze will have his team ready to play which I think will keep this game close.
Score: UAB 27-24 Liberty
Florida vs. Kentucky, 6 p.m. CT, ESPN
The pick: Florida -6.5
Heading east for another intriguing SEC matchup in the swamp, this game has the look of another potential barnburner.
Or does it?
Each team is coming into this game following vastly different performances. Florida pulled off an impressive home upset over Utah with quarterback Anthony Richardson flashing Heisman potential.
Kentucky, on the other hand, struggled early against Miami University, eventually pulling out a 37-13 win. Kentucky is also without its leading rusher, and arguably most efficient offensive player in Chris Rodriguez Jr. Kentucky has also had issues on the offensive line, a recipe for disaster going on the road to play Florida.
Kentucky will likely find it hard to score in this game, while Richardson and Florida continue the momentum from last week. The game will probably be close early, but I see Florida pulling away late and covering.
Score: Florida 28-17 Kentucky
BYU vs. Baylor, 9:15 p.m. CT, ESPN
The pick: Baylor +3
A potential instant classic to cap the night of college football this Saturday as Baylor travels to Provo to face BYU. Arguably the most entertaining matchup of the week, the matchup of future Big 12 foes features two ranked teams.
Both teams are coming off big opening wins, with Baylor beating Albany 69-10 and BYU beating South Florida 50-21. BYU will not be at full strength in this game though, with top receivers Gunner Romney and Pukua Nacua both missing the game due to injuries. This will be a big hurdle for BYU to get over as the pair accounted for 60% of BYU’s returning receiving yards.
I expect a disciplined Baylor defense to take advantage of this. Dave Aranda always has disciplined, defense-first teams, and that will be key in this game. The Baylor offense also looks improved with quarterback Blake Shapen leading the charge. I think Baylor will go on the road and take care of business, securing the mild upset.
Score: Baylor 31-24 BYU