This year’s hurricane season has a 65% likelihood of having above-normal hurricane activity, a 2022 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report revealed. 

The report, released May 24, predicts a 25% chance of a near-normal season with a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, said they expect between 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, three of which could become major hurricanes. In 2021 there were 21 named storms, of which four were hurricanes. The 2020 season was the most active on record, with 30 named storms, including 14 hurricanes.

This report is the seventh consecutive that has predicted an above-normal season. Rosencrans said the outlooks are accurate 67% of the time. None of the forecasts for the past seven years have overestimated the season, but some have underestimated.

“We looked at the things that change over decades,” said Rosencrans, explaining that phenomena like La Niña, wind shear and Atlantic trade winds influence hurricanes on an extended timeline.

According to NOAA, La Niña is a weather pattern where the water in the eastern Pacific is colder than usual. This makes it easier for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic and harder in the Pacific. 

Wind shear is the change in speed or direction of the wind, Rosencrans said. He added that lower wind shear makes it easier for hurricanes to form.

The Atlantic trade winds are also weaker, another factor that makes it easier for hurricanes to form. 

Rosencrans said these factors account for 75 to 80% of all the variants for hurricane activity.

The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillations are long-duration changes in sea-surface temperatures that affect climate patterns. According to NOAA, warm phases, also called active eras, contribute to the factors that result in above-normal hurricane seasons.

Rosencrans said the Atlantic has been in an active era since 1995, leading to an above-average sea-surface temperature. The active phase lasts between 25 and 40 years, so the Atlantic should be transitioning out of the active phase soon.

“We’re around the time we should start seeing a change,” Rosencrans said. “But those changes take between 18 to 24 months to happen because you’re changing the entire temperature and wind circulation of the Atlantic Ocean.”

Paul Miller, an LSU meteorologist, said that LSU produces its own forecast for hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Their forecast, he added, also predicts an above-normal season. 

Miller said they look at the temperature about four miles into the atmosphere above the Gulf to make the prediction. This year, they found warmer temperatures in the atmosphere above the Gulf, which have historically been correlated with more active hurricane seasons.

Miller said that, despite an anticipated above-average season, the season is off to a really slow start. He said that, according to statistics, there should have already been a hurricane.

“We came really strong out of the gate with three tropical storms in June and then that has been kind of it and there has not been a tropical system since then,” Miller said. “So, there’s a lot of indications that is going to change over the next couple weeks.”

He said many models suggest hurricane season will, however, be ramping soon. According to NOAA, the peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10, with 96% of major hurricanes occurring between mid-August and mid-October. 

“It might seem like it’s off to a slow start,” Miller said. ”But the most hazardous and active part of the season is still ahead of us.”

According to LSU’s Office of Emergency Preparedness, LSU will keep students informed in advance of a hurricane’s approach and advise them to check the university’s website and social media, along with local news. 

LSU is required to have a certain number of class days for the semester, the office explained, so make-up days may be required if school is canceled for an extended period, similar to the cancellations during last year’s Hurricane Ida.