Despite remaining undefeated through the end of last week, No. 3 LSU was jumped in the latest AP Poll by Indiana, much to the disapproval of Tiger fans everywhere. While it isn’t atypical for an undefeated team in college sports to be disregarded when they undergo a drop in production, 23 straight wins including four against Quad I teams should justify a team to keep its spot, right?
Well, not always.
LSU’s stellar start, continued success in SEC play and No. 2 ranking in point margin and scoring offense warrant a spot in the top five no matter what. That’s not even a question. But that doesn’t mean the voting committee can’t rule in favor of a team sporting a better track record, even if that record contains a blemish.
In this case, that team is Indiana. The Hoosiers are 22-1, have maintained a spot in the AP Top 10 since late November, just recently secured the Big 10 throne over Ohio State and should secure a one-seed in March Madness if their success continues.
There are arguments for why the Tigers should have remained at No. 2 but they lack context and are easy to argue against.
The Hoosiers possess a single unranked loss suffered at the end of 2022, which justifiably dropped them down a few spots in the rendition of the AP Poll that followed it. While they do hold the No. 3 spot in point margin right behind LSU, the Tigers, along with South Carolina, are in a league of their own when it comes to the stat line, each holding more than a 10-point lead over Indiana within the category.
If the teams had schedules with similar levels of difficulty, the decision to place Indiana above LSU would be completely unjustified and warrant contention because of its single loss. That’s how incredible each of their seasons have been.
But that just simply isn’t the case, not even close.
LSU’s toughest opponent in terms of both the current AP Poll and NET rankings is Tennessee, which is interesting because that just so happens to be a team Indiana beat on the road back in November. It’s even more interesting because the Volunteers are the fifth best team the Hoosiers have defeated.
Ahead of Tennessee, the Hoosiers have wins over No. 8 Maryland, No. 12 Michigan, No. 13 Ohio State and No. 14 North Carolina, with three of those wins coming within the last month. It’s safe to say that Indiana’s lone loss, a Quad ! loss on the road against Michigan State nearly six weeks ago, gets trumped by the four top-15 wins that follow it.
Other than that, defeating Illinois (No. 34 in NET) and Purdue (No. 40 in NET) on the road gives the Hoosiers a total of seven Quad I wins opposed to LSU’s four, which all came against teams not currently ranked in the AP Top 25. Strength of schedule has become a tired argument to Tiger fans, being that LSU can’t control its conference not being as deep as the Big 10, but when you’re getting compared to top teams like that, one week not meeting your usual standards can usually be the difference.
Heading into last week, Indiana fell two votes short of surpassing LSU and had steadily been inching closer to it in that regard, meaning there was already a great chance of it jumping the Tigers if it simply performed better than them. Each team went in with similar scenarios, one opponent in the NET Top 50 (LSU vs. Georgia, Indiana vs. Purdue) and one outside the NET Top 100 (LSU vs. Texas A&M, Indiana vs. Minnesota), with the Hoosiers having a slightly more difficult week with both matchups occurring on the road.
That meant that if the Tigers faltered even a little bit, Indiana was bound to jump them.
While LSU struggled in both outings, narrowly avoiding an overtime loss to Georgia and struggling to put the Aggies away on the road, the Hoosiers played exceptionally well in each of its contests, defeating both opponents by 23 points. With the teams going into each week neck-and-neck in the rankings, it’s clear why Indiana jumped LSU.
Fans would argue that one bad week in a long season featuring nearly 30 games doesn’t define a team, which is true. Indiana’s bad week came earlier in the season and recency does play a role in the committee’s decision. But that doesn’t make the decision any less justified considering the comparison in track records.
It doesn’t mean either team is better than the other. That won’t be determined until each team consistently gets put to the test in March, with a possible crossing of paths later on in March Madness.
Either way, there’s only one scenario where this remains a point of contention moving forward. Indiana faces No. 5 Iowa on Thursday and LSU faces No. 1 South Carolina on Sunday, with each game occurring before next week’s rankings are released. If each team wins in similar fashion, a near-impossible choice awaits the committee, a choice that will likely cause chaos no matter what.
