“You want to be at your best when your best is needed,” head coach Brian Kelly said heading into this week’s season-defining matchup with No. 8 Alabama, currently sitting at 7-1.
The best is certainly what No. 14 LSU will need to knock off Nick Saban and Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday for a primetime matchup that could very well decide the SEC West.
LSU’s offense, luckily, has been just that this season: the best. Quarterback Jayden Daniels is in the thick of the Heisman race, the offensive line has been one of the nation’s finest and wideouts Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. lead the country in receiving yards and touchdowns, respectively.
Opponents facing LSU this season have had to ask themselves this question: Can you stop LSU’s offense, or can you only hope to outscore them?
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The Tide isn’t exactly equipped to do the latter, and while its defense is the best LSU has faced, the Tigers’ offense has so far been matchup-proof.
Still, in an LSU-Alabama matchup, you can throw conventional wisdom out the window, especially when as much is at stake as there is Saturday.
Alabama starting quarterback Milroe will lead the charge on offense for the Crimson Tide. He hasn’t been elite this season, but he’s been better than he’s gotten credit for, despite having directed Alabama to a national ranking of No. 77 in passing offense.
He has been risk-averse, and his deep ball has been one of the Alabama offense’s best attributes. Milroe’s 10.6 passing yards per attempt ranks No. 3 in the country behind only Jayden Daniels and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy.
His connection with big-bodied deep threat receiver Jermaine Burton is central to that deep passing success. Burton is No. 5 in the nation with 22.1 yards per reception for a total of 508 yards and five touchdowns.
Milroe also presents a threat on the ground. Taking out sack yardage, he has ran for 354 yards and five touchdowns this year for 7.5 yards per carry.
Much of the offense’s struggles can be attributed to Alabama’s offensive line. The unit has allowed 35 sacks, the fourth-most in the nation.
Problems have shown up for the offensive line in the run game as well, which is an issue for a team whose identity relies on running the ball. Of the 53 FBS teams that have over 300 rushing attempts, only seven have an average lower than Alabama’s 3.74 yards per rush. Alabama has had some recent success wearing down teams and running out the clock with lead back Jase McClellan, but it still hasn’t been an efficient attack.
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Alabama’s offense has had major problems with starting slow. Aside from its 40-17 win over Mississippi State, Alabama has scored just 51 first half points since week one compared to 96 in the second half. Against an LSU offense that’s capable of pulling away out of the gate, a slow start could be a death sentence.
However, with how bad LSU’s defense has been at points this season, there’s a chance Alabama’s offense could produce one of its best outings of the season. The Tide will certainly seek to establish the run against LSU’s poorly-ranked rush defense, and they’ll take deep shots at LSU’s inexperienced cornerback room of Sage Ryan, Ashton Stamps, Jeremiah Hughes and Javien Toviano.
Still, Alabama managed only 24 points when it faced Ole Miss, and the Rebels’ defense looked every bit as vulnerable as LSU’s when the two played. In addition, the Tiger defense has been steadily improving, and Alabama’s vertically-oriented pass game could give pass-rushers like Harold Perkins Jr. time to get home.
As usual, Alabama’s defense is one of the best in the country, making this team reminiscent of past Tide teams with a dominant defense and a middling, run-heavy offense.
Up front, the Tide get after the quarterback better than almost anyone. Alabama’s 28 sacks rank No. 8 in the country, and the fearsome edge rusher duo of Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell rank No. 10 and No. 14 in the nation with seven and 6.5 sacks, respectively.
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The team combines its pressure with solid coverage downfield from cornerbacks Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold and true freshman safety Caleb Downs. As a result, Alabama has stifled opposing pass defenses, allowing the second-lowest opponent passer rating in the SEC.
The Tide have been equally effective against the run and in the red zone, ranking No. 13 in the nation in yards per rush allowed and No. 15 in red zone touchdown rate allowed.
Daniels and company will face their toughest test of the season. The offensive line, particularly tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., will have to face off against a talented front and help keep the offense away from negative plays and on schedule.
Taking down rival Alabama in a repeat of LSU’s upset win from a year ago will require a concerted effort from the Tigers. A win is essential for either team’s less-than-certain campaigns to reach the College Football Playoff.
