If you care way too much about the NCAA Tournament (like I do), then you already know there’s no better feeling than watching one of your underdog picks pull off a run.
Last season, my big Cinderella first round pick was Mercer, who knocked off Duke in the round of 64. Tennessee sent them packing in the next game, but it was fun while it lasted. Two years ago, I picked South Dakota State to knock off Michigan — that one didn’t go as well.
Despite the not-so-subtle brag of my Mercer pick, my point is I care way too much about the Cinderellas of the tournament. Instead of working on school work last night, I spent hours putting together research on some double-digit seeds in each region likely to pull off an upset.
You’re welcome.
Midwest Region
No. 12 Buffalo v. No. 5 West Virginia
Call me cliché to go for a 12-5 upset, but this is a perfect matchup for Buffalo. West Virginia has been called “Press Virginia” throughout the season because it’s all coach Bob Huggins does, but the Bulls like to run the floor, too.
Buffalo also is 24th in points per game and 13th in rebounds per game. In November, the Bulls led Kentucky — yes, that Kentucky — at halftime. They ended up losing by 19 but proved they can hang with the big boys.
No. 15 New Mexico State v. No. 2 Kansas
Remember the Aggies from football season? They came to Baton Rouge and left with a 63-7 loss thanks to Brandon Harris and Leonard Fournette. Unfortunately for Kansas, their basketball team is better than the football team.
New Mexico State is full of tournament experience, making its fourth straight appearance in the tournament. The Aggies suffered early-season injuries that cost them a seed or two. But since those players have returned, New Mexico State has reeled off 13 straight victories and look poised to stun the nation.
East Region
No. 12 Wyoming v. No. 5 Northern Iowa
An injury to their star player cost the Cowboys a little down the stretch and knocked them down a few seeds, but Larry Nance Jr. returned for the conference tournament and Wyoming rolled to automatic bid. Wyoming’s defense is very strong, ranking top-10 in opponent points per game. Northern Iowa is a mid-major power that tore through its conference and also plays great defense, holding its opponents to less than 60 points in 25 of 33 games.
Each team relies on its star to carry it offensively. For the Panthers, it’s senior Seth Tuttle, while the Cowboys rely on Nance.
With two similar styles and reliance on one player for offense, expect a close, low-scoring game, and nail-biters normally favor the underdogs in the Big Dance.
No. 13 UC – Irvine v. No. 4 Louisville
Louisville is a perennial power, having won the championship two years ago. But the Cardinals haven’t been the same since the dismissal of senior guard Chris Jones. They still have Montrezl Harrell, but struggle to score from the outside.
Enter UC-Irvine and its 7-foot-6 center Mamadou Ndiaye. The Anteaters aren’t prolific scorers or great defenders, but my gut says a team that struggles to score from the outside versus a team with a 7-foot-6 center is good news for UCI.
South Region
No. 13 Eastern Washington v. No. 4 Georgetown
Do you like scoring? Because Eastern Washington loves to score. The Eagles rank top five in the nation in points per game and have the nation’s leading scorer in junior guard Tyler Harvey, who averages nearly 23 points per
game.
Any team with the nation’s leading scorer is dangerous. Add in Georgetown’s history of early NCAA exits since 2008 and anything is possible.
No. 15 North Dakota State v. No. 2 Gonzaga
Fargo, North Dakota, has become the talk of the mid-major sports world since College GameDay traveled to the small midwestern town in 2013. The Bison won the Division I Football Championship Series in football that year and followed up in the spring with an upset of Oklahoma in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
The Bison play solid defense and run a four-guard lineup that can present perimeter challenges. I doubt it’ll be enough to topple Gonzaga, but any team with recent upset experience has a chance to do it again.
West Region
No. 14 Georgia State v. No. 3 Baylor
Georgia State clinched its automatic bid with a 38-36 victory in the Sun Belt tournament final, so the potential to never score is there. But the Panthers have two stars — Kentucky transfer Ryan Horrow and the coach’s son R.J. Hunter. Add in Louisville transfer Kevin Ware, who broke his leg during Louisville’s 2013 Elite Eight game, and the Eagles are an upset waiting to happen.
Georgia State gets a tough first-round matchup with experienced, defensive minded Baylor, but the Panthers are top 25 in field goal percentage offense and top 10 in field goal percentage defense. Efficiency on both ends could be enough to spark the upset.
No. 16 Coastal Carolina v. No. 1 Wisconsin
I’ll leave you with an almost impossible 16 seed over 1 seed. If you’re feeling lucky, this could be a spot for the first ever victory for a 16
seed.
Coastal Carolina can shoot the lights out at times. Last season, the Chanticleers nearly pulled off the one-versus-16 upset, but ultimately fell to Virginia. Flash-forward one season, and Coastal Carolina has to be thinking about just how close they were a season ago.
Yeah, some of these picks are pretty crazy, but what’s the Big Dance without a few Cinderellas.
Brian Pellerin is a 21-year-old mass communication junior from Kenner, Louisiana. You can reach him on Twitter @Pellerin_TDR.
Opinion: Pinpointing this year’s Cinderellas
March 17, 2015
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