Henry Huber: Midterms are done and I now get to focus on what really matters, college football. Though this week isn’t quite as stacked as last week was, there are still some great games, with Kentucky headlining matchups for the first time in over a decade (if you can call a 21.5 spread headlining). There are bound to be a few sleepers (and upsets) this weekend so make sure you have your ESPN notifications on just in case. Hopefully these picks go better than my tests did!
Jared Brodtmann: Hey Henry, did I miss anything fun or exciting last week? Just a pretty standard day of college football? No big upsets? Cool.
Henry’s Last Week: 3-1-1
Henry’s Season: 7-7-1
Huge improvement from the previous week, I was very happy with my picks. I’ll admit a lot of those games had me sweating a bit (looking at you Notre Dame and Nebraska). With that being said, let’s get into them.
Boise State vs. BYU (-6) L
Always love starting the day off with a loss. This wasn’t a particularly bad one though, Boise State took a lead in the middle of the second quarter and never let go. It wasn’t flashy but they got the job done by committing no big mistakes, causing BYU to make a lot of big mistakes and playing great defense overall. Easily their best game defensively this season. 17 points allowed and four turnovers are amazing stats, even if it wasn’t against an amazing offense. Just the type of win they needed to get back on their feet after a slow start.
Penn State vs. Iowa (-1.5) W
This one didn’t feel earned to be honest, I just got lucky. Penn State got out to an early 17-3 lead in the second before Sean Clifford went down with an injury. Clifford was playing about as well as you can against a defense as stacked as the Hawkeyes’ and once he went out and sophomore Ta’Quan Roberson went in, it was all over. Roberson was thrown into an unfavorable situation that he was clearly unprepared for and it showed, as he finished the game with a QBR of just 27.7 behind a 33% completion rating, 21 yards passing and two interceptions.
Granted Iowa did start to put it together in the second half but would they have come back if Clifford was in and the Penn State defense wasn’t exhausted from constantly being in the game, probably not. But hey, we take those.
East Carolina (+10) vs. UCF W
I knew I was picking this game and what side I was picking as soon as I saw the spread, and here’s why. Dillon Gabriel is out for the season. It’s that simple really. UCF’s offense has a very hard time functioning with their inexperienced backup in at quarterback, and it has shown the times he has played. East Carolina has a terrible defense but they managed their best defensive game of the season, holding UCF to just 360 yards of total offense and 20 points. Had UCF’s defense not been on top of things, they would have pulled off the upset, and they had the lead late in the game. UCF is about to get massacred by Cincinnati, pray for them.
Michigan vs. Nebraska (+3) T
While I was watching Nebraska blow it at the end of this game, I realized something: if Michigan makes this field goal, they are going to be leading by the spread. When I asked Jared what would happen if that occurred, he told me it was called a push, which equates to a tie. Sure enough, it happened. It keeps me from being above .500 (so close, ugh) but I’m alright with it.
Anyways, the game. It was a fun one to watch, especially the second half. Wow, what a game. Unfortunately it just so happened to be running at the same time as a few other great games (including Alabama losing to Texas A&M) and LSU getting murdered so you might’ve missed it. Nebraska got shut down in the first half, which showed that Michigan’s defense has some legitimacy to it. But things changed as soon as the second half began, with Adrian Martinez accounting for four total touchdowns in the first 23 minutes of the second half. Scott Frost must have given them one hell of a speech. “They have all the momentum. Touchdown, punt, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, fumble, do-, wait…”
Fumble? Adrian Martinez fumbled the ball… with the momentum and game in their hands. Man, what a shame. Nebraska is cursed.
Notre Dame (EVEN) vs. Virginia Tech W
‘Even’ is right, I have never seen a spread so accurate. This game was insane, with the momentum switching back and forth through the entire game. It started in Tech’s favor, with their defense shutting down Jack Coan and the Notre Dame offense for the first few possessions. Then, Notre Dame got desperate and decided to switch quarterbacks, and it worked? Apparently so. The Hokies would adapt in the second half, eventually causing Buchner to make multiple huge mistakes (including a pick six) and surprise, the momentum switched again.
Speaking of switching, Brian Kelly switched quarterbacks again. And it worked, again. After struggling to put anything together on the first three drives of the game, Jack Coan came into the game at the climax of it and put together not one, but two one-and-a-half minute scoring drives to win them the game. I’ll say it again, what an insane game.
Henry’s Week 7 Picks:
Oklahoma State vs. Texas, Saturday 10/16, 11:00 CT, FOX
The Pick: Oklahoma State + 3.5
I went back-and-forth on this one to be honest. Oklahoma State’s defense this season has been stellar but at the same time, it’s also hard to gauge. They haven’t played incredible offenses this season and I believe Texas’s will be this defense’s first true test. With that being said, Texas’s defense has been atrocious this season. Without their game against Rice, they’ve given up 39 points per game and they looked like wet paper against Caleb Williams.
Oklahoma State’s quarterback Spencer Sanders has struggled this season but he has struggled against good defenses like Baylor’s, Kansas State’s and Boise State’s, and I believe he is going to have a field day against the Longhorns.
The Longhorn offense will have enough success to keep it within reach, but Oklahoma State takes this one.
Score: Oklahoma State 35 Texas 31
Fresno State vs. Wyoming, Saturday 10/16, 2:30 CT, FS2
The Pick: Fresno State -3.5
Okay, that spread worries me a little bit because this pick seems so obvious. I understand that Fresno State had their worst game of the season last time they played against Hawaii but have you seen this team play? They went toe-to-toe with Oregon and defeated UCLA, their passing offense is one of the best in the country and their defense has been solid as well.
On the other hand, Wyoming has average stats against subpar competition. The best team they have played so far completely shut them down on offense, granted Air Force is a great team this season so that’s somewhat understandable. But they also almost lost to UConn and their best win came against Ball State without their starting quarterback.
The justification I see for the spread being low is the fact that Fresno State has declined since their win over UCLA but they have also had a break since their loss. It’s hard to see them losing to Wyoming.
Score: Fresno State 38 Wyoming 17
Ole Miss vs. Tennessee, Saturday 10/16, 6:30 CT, SECN
The Pick: Ole Miss -2.5
So, I get why this is close and I’m not saying it won’t be. I firmly believe that Tennessee has the ability to make this a game but it’s hard to imagine them being able to keep up with Ole Miss’s incredibly high-powered offense in this one. Tennessee’s defense is good statistically, but so was Arkansas’s and they just gave up 52 points to them. I believe Tennessee’s stats are somewhat misleading too, based on the fact that their last two opponents are at the bottom of the SEC.
Tennessee had a great statistical game against Florida despite the story that the score tells, and I believe this game is going to be a good one. But Ole Miss just has a step on the Volunteers. Tennessee will get their big win eventually though.
Score: Ole Miss 45 Tennessee 38
TCU vs. Oklahoma, Saturday 10/16, 6:30 CT, ABC
The Pick: TCU +13.5
Oklahoma can’t seem to win by more than one score this season. It feels like a pattern of them underestimating their opponents, getting put into a bad position and then, just barely coming through. It happened against Tulane, West Virginia, Kansas State and most recently, Texas. However, there is no way Spencer Rattler is starting for the Sooners after what Caleb Williams did to that Longhorn defense. And with that being said, it is possible that this game could be different than their previous ones. But…
They are going to underestimate the Horned Frogs. I guarantee it is going to happen. They are coming off of a huge comeback win against their biggest rival and they are feeling invincible. TCU is not a joke of a team, just like West Virginia and Kansas State. They have offensive weapons in Zach Evans and Kendre Miller, and an efficient quarterback in Max Duggan. They’ve played great games against Texas and Texas Tech. Their two losses came within one score against teams that are currently ranked.
Oklahoma still wins by a good bit, but they don’t take it by two touchdowns.
Score: Oklahoma 45 TCU 35
Arizona State vs. Utah, Saturday 10/16, 9:30 CT, ESPN
The Pick: Arizona State (EVEN)
The last even split game I picked turned out to be incredibly exciting, so I decided to pick another one. This is going to be another great one, and I see that even spread being very accurate. These teams are very similar. Both teams have strong defenses, with Arizona State being slightly stronger at the time of writing this, both teams lost to BYU by multiple schools (not relevant but I thought it was interesting), and both teams have had very solid games over the past two weeks.
However, I feel like Arizona State has the edge in multiple aspects. For one, their last three games have been incredibly impressive. They look like they can truly contend for the PAC-12 title, and I see their game against Oregon being exciting and close. They defeated their last three opponents by an average of 23 points and two of those opponents (Stanford and UCLA) are strong. The Sun Devils have the edge statistically as well, with both their offense and defense being better than Utah’s.
I think it’s going to be a good one, worth watching if you can stay up for it.
Score: Arizona State 33 Utah 31
Jared’s Last Week (Week 5): 2-3
Jared’s Season: 12-13
This could be a little better? But I won’t quit. Look good, feel good. Feel good, pick good. Let’s go.
Jared’s Picks:
LSU vs. Florida, 11:00 AM CT, ESPN
The Pick: Florida -12.0
You know who I know is not good? LSU. The team is unbelievably short-handed with injuries piling on, and it looks like it will only be a matter of time until Ed Orgeron is relieved of his duties. Two touchdowns should be easy for a Florida team that has found its identity as a hard-nosed, run-first team. They’ll pound LSU into the ground much like Kentucky did last week. If you feel like you have to watch the game, at least make some money off of it!
Score: Florida 38, LSU 16
Arkansas vs. Auburn, 11:00 AM CT, CBS
The Pick: Arkansas -4.5
This is actually a very intriguing game. Auburn is looking to rebound from a tough loss to Georgia at home and Arkansas an even tougher loss to Ole Miss after KJ Jefferson and company failed to convert a last second two-point conversion to win the game. I think the key matchup will be how Auburn’s secondary, which has struggled mightily this year, will handle Treylon Burks. He’s been at the top of the SEC wide receiver class all year, and I think he’ll terrorize the Tigers’ defense. If that holds true, I think Arkansas wins at home to bounce back.
Score: Arkansas 27, Auburn 20
Northwestern vs. Rutgers, 11:00 AM CT, BTN
Rutgers? Rutgers. Greg Schiano? Greg Schiano.
As stated earlier this season, I love what Rutgers is doing lately. They’ve had a rough run of games lately against big, bad Ohio State and Michigan State, so I think this line should be a bigger cover for Rutgers than it is. Northwestern hasn’t shown much of anything, and the Scarlet Knights have a top-tier wideout duo in Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank. I think Rutgers seizes the opportunity to get their first conference win on the road.
Score: Rutgers 35, Northwestern, 21
UTSA vs. Rice, 5:00 PM CT, ESPN+
The Pick: UTSA -17.0
You have to love UTSA’s run so far. They’re 6-0 with quality wins over Memphis and Illinois, and now they take on a struggling Rice team. Sincere McCormick is the nation’s ninth leading rusher, and Frank Harris has been great behind center for the Roadrunners. 17 points may seem like a lot, but I feel UTSA is going to pour it on. Win big, and maybe pollers (not me, I’ve been voting for you UTSA!) will start giving them well deserved respect.
Score: UTSA 45, Rice 20
Washington vs. UCLA, 7:30 PM CT, FOX
The Pick: UCLA +1.5
Another team LSU fans know well! Since their win over LSU to begin the season, it’s been up and down for Chip Kelly’s squad. However, the Bruins still have a ton of talent, and with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet leading their offense, I like them to win in a basic pick ‘em on the road. A much-needed win would propel them back into the Pac-12 Championship race, the winner of which is most likely headed to the Rose Bowl.
