Ask any college football analyst, coach, or fan what their preseason predictions for LSU and Auburn, and nearly all of them would have been wrong. The public tended to believe this year would be a return to Alabama’s dominance over the SEC West, which has held true thus far, but no one’s palm readings foresaw both LSU and Auburn having two losses coming into their marquee Halloween matchup.
For the first time since 1999, LSU and Auburn will face off as unranked teams. The two rivals will kick off at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn at 2:30 p.m. Saturday afternoon.
Although their seasons have been marred by underachievement, both teams have an abundance of talent remaining, and there will be some incredible positional battles that will ultimately the decide the winner of the game.
For LSU, calling this season a championship hangover would be an understatement. Losses to Mississippi State and Missouri exposed deeper rooted flaws than simply a slight loss of focus after an undefeated season. LSU ranks 83^rd of 101 FBS teams in total defense, giving up an average of 471.8 yards per game and 7.17 yards per play. First year defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has struggled to get his players to prevent big plays, as the Tigers continue to allow players to get in space and create for themselves. A whopping 10.86 average yards per pass in the Tigers’ games against Mississippi State, Missouri and South Carolina has become an all too common refrain for the young and inexperienced LSU defense.
The youth has spread to the offense in the wake of Myles Brennan’s torn abdominal muscle against Missouri, but unlike the defense, true freshman quarterback TJ Finley looked like a seasoned veteran in his first start last weekend against South Carolina. Finley was 17-of-21 with 265 yards and two touchdowns and tacked on a rushing touchdown on eight carries for 24 yards. Head coach Ed Orgeron has said Finley’s performance has not changed his mind about Brennan remaining the starter once healthy, but it did affect his decision about whether to rush Brennan back.
“I think if Finley wouldn’t have played well, Max (Johnson) would have gone in,” Orgeron said. “I think Max would have done fine. He can do some things, he can run, he’s smart, can throw the football. It does factor in that we don’t have to rush Myles. We feel that TJ or Max can do a great job.”
As for Auburn, a preseason full of hope quickly sputtered when the Tigers were handily defeated against Georgia in Athens. Sophomore quarterback Bo Nix has not made the jump to a top player in the SEC many had thought he would, and the team has been suffering from injuries, most notably All-SEC linebacker KJ Britt and veteran offensive lineman Brandon Council.
The problem for Auburn is much deeper than personnel. This team needs confidence more than anything. After a nailbiter victory over Arkansas, a tough loss to South Carolina, and another close game against Ole Miss, Auburn is desperate for a win over LSU after losing three straight to their West brethren to instill belief back into Head coach Gus Malzahn and his staff for the remainder of the year.
“I’ll tell you this, our guys are extremely excited and motivated to play this game,” Malzahn said. “2:30 CBS kickoff and playing at home — I think it is a really big game.”
This game is the most important one for both programs this year so far. The winner will gain back some of the preseason momentum that was prevalent in both operations buildings. The loser may be left to answer some tough questions about their immediate future and to piece together something to save their program’s trajectory for the upcoming seasons.
Let’s jump in and look at some of those matchups:
Terrace Marshall Jr. vs. Roger McCreary
The best 1-on-1 matchup of the day will come at the wide receiver position for LSU and the cornerback position for Auburn. Marshall has been on a relentless tear this season, racking up 27 catches for 512 yards and nine touchdowns, the SEC’s best, in just four games. He has scored a touchdown in seven-straight games and 12 of his 16 starts and is the clear number one option in the LSU offense this season. Steady hands, precise route running, and elite athleticism make him a threat to spoil any defense’s day. Marshall has evolved into the complete wide receiver many imagined he would be by the time his career at LSU would be over.
“In the offseason, every time I work, it’s always on my mind,” Marshall said on his progression into the ultimate weapon. “I want to be able to play small and play big. That’s the best of both worlds. I feel like anybody would want a receiver who could do that, with the upside that I have.”
Beyond his unreal scoring and playmaking ability, he has grown into a role even more valuable this year.
“He’s turned into a team leader. He came to my office the last week, ‘Coach, who is going to be the starting quarterback, man?,’” Orgeron said of Marshall. “I want to know. I want to know who he is.’ I told him my feelings. They were right down the middle. I said, ‘Hey, let’s see this week, pick.’ He came in my office Thursday morning, ‘Let’s talk about it.’”
“He was in the background a little bit, kept quiet. I think the big thing with Terrace was to get healthy. Now he’s healthy. He’s confident. He comes off that field, Man, coach, I want that ball. You want that in all receivers. He’s very confident right now and healthy.”
So, what better option for Auburn than to assign Marshall to one of the best cornerbacks in the conference, McCreary? He has shadowed all of Auburn’s opponents’ best receivers this season and has not disappointed. Holding Georgia star George Pickens to just two catches for 26 yards and Ole Miss All-SEC stud Elijah Moore to five catches for 16 yards is no small feat. This will be his biggest test but expect him to rise to it and make this individual matchup the most fun to watch of the game.
John Emery Jr., Ty Davis-Price, and LSU OL vs. Owen Pappoe, Zakoby McClain, and Auburn DL
If LSU’s win over South Carolina proved anything, it was the importance of LSU successfully running the football. The Tigers tallied 276 yards on a whopping 54 carries split between Davis-Price’s 22, Emery’s 18, and Chris Curry’s four. But, more importantly, running the football affected the game in other areas. Taking as much pressure off Finley as possible to not force passes and make unnecessary mistakes by establishing a run game was key in Finley’s high efficiency and game management. The Tiger defense also benefited from LSU’s strong ground performance by the time of possession. Although the defense still gave up 8.23 yards per play to the Gamecocks, the defense’s considerable flaws were masked by a run game which caused South Carolina to have just 22:26 minutes of possession in the game.
“If they give us a box where we can run the football, we want to run the football,” Orgeron said. “We have to. Going into the season, I thought the backs were going to be the strength of our offense.”
While LSU lost their preseason starting left tackle Dare Rosenthal to an indefinite suspension, Cam Wire has stepped up and played great in his absence. Add in the return of left guard Ed Ingram from injury, and the results compounded into the offensive line’s best game of the season.
“It was great man,” Davis-Price said of the rushing attack. “Hats off to the O-line, they came to play Saturday, they really did. We went to take those guys out and treat them, me and John.”
If Auburn wants any chance of controlling the tempo of the game, giving their offense enough time to get scores, and getting pressure on young Finley, they will have to find ways to stop LSU from running the ball. The work will have to be done by their front seven. While there’s no Derrick Brown on the interior to stop a forward run game, there is Big Kat Bryant and Colby Wooden on the defensive line ready to get penetration on the first level and slow the LSU backs.
Behind them lies the real weapons, linebackers Zakoby McClain and Owen Pappoe. The two have been Auburn’s most productive defenders, leading the defense in total tackles. Their ability to key and diagnose LSU’s tricky RPOs and counters will be crucial to avoid too many chunk plays where LSU can do serious damage.
The team that wins the line of scrimmage usually wins the game, and this matchup will be no different.
BJ Ojulari, Andre Anthony, Ali Gaye vs. Alec Jackson, Brodarius Hamm
On the other side of the ball, LSU’s defense will have its greatest strength in its edge rushers. While the defense has often disappointed, Ojulari, Gaye, and Anthony have not. LSU leads the SEC in sacks, tackles for loss, turnover margins, and fumble recoveries, largely in part to their hard work on the defensive line. Their ability to create pressure and chaos in the backfield has not gone unnoticed.
“It’s the 4-3, man,” Orgeron said. “You’re not playing four techniques. You got ends rushing wide. We have more athletic people on the field. It’s LSU football. It’s what I grew up watching. We did that in Miami, we did that at USC. It was time to go back to it.”
“There’s no doubt it’s going to be a test,” Malzahn stated. “We’re going to have to do a really good job whether it’s scheme or whether it’s situational. When they pin their ears back and they know it’s pass, they’re very effective and impressive watching them on film.”
Auburn has been forced to be flexible with their inexperienced offensive line, and the lineup was shaken up again after Brandon Council’s season ended with a knee injury against Ole Miss. Jackson and Hamm will have the task of controlling the edges against the LSU defensive ends, but this could end up being a part of the game where LSU may exert their will. Nix has struggled when pressured this season. Against Georgia, Nix was under pressure on 22 dropbacks, where he went 6-19, threw an interception, and was sacked twice, per PFF. If LSU can replicate that with their pass rush, it may be the deciding factor in who comes out victorious.
LSU Linebackers and Safeties vs. Auburn Spread Attack
How can Auburn counter this disadvantage? By getting their explosive playmakers in space quickly before the rush gets to Nix. Seth Williams is Auburn’s best downfield threat but is very versatile and can be used in any scenario Malzahn and offensive coordinator Chad Morris wish. Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove are some of the best in the conference at making short air yardage plays into big gains with yards after the catch with their electric speed. Tank Bigsby has emerged as the top freshman running back in the country, and when he gets room to run, great things happen for Auburn’s offense.
One of LSU’s biggest struggles this season has been recognizing, reacting to, and tackling players who get wide and get space. The burden of a slippery Schwartz bubble screen or a Bigsby dumpoff is going to fall to nickel corner Cordale Flott, safeties Maurice Hampton Jr. and JaCoby Stevens, and linebackers Damone Clark and Jabril Cox. The Tigers lead the SEC in a bad category, average pass yards after the catch, with a mean of 5.63 yards per game. Whether the problems LSU has been having are personnel related, scheme caused, or a combination of both is open to interpretation, but what is clear that they have a problem defending spread offenses.  
If Auburn’s weapons utilize the man coverages Pelini runs to cause confusion and disorder like Mississippi State and Missouri did, this could easily turn the LSU defense upside down. LSU may be forced to abandon their goal of running the ball and controlling the game and instead call upon a true freshman quarterback to win a game in Jordan-Hare, which is exactly what Auburn wants.