The Daily Reveille sports staff shares their thoughts and score predictions ahead of No. 3 LSU’s matchup with No. 1 Alabama.
“Closer than experts think” | Brandon Adam
I’m going to borrow a line from Lee Corso, and it’s quite fitting considering College Gameday will be on hand for the LSU-Alabama game.
This game will not cover Vegas’ 14.5 point spread in favor of Alabama, nor will it be the blowout many experts believe it to be.
Let’s start with the facts — since 2008, which was Nick Saban’s first game back in Tiger Stadium as head coach of Alabama, every single game has come down to the final possession. Every game ended within one possession with the exception of the 2016 game that ended 10-0 but was tied at 0-0 until the fourth quarter. Two of the five games at Tiger Stadium since 2008 went to overtime. Two others were decided by three points in regulation. The 2016 game is the lone outlier.
With that said, this year’s game will be no different with regards to the margin of victory. So take my advice and bet against spread, or don’t and use that money to buy yourself dinner or libations.
Prediction: LSU 24, Alabama 20
DBU has another test | Kennedi Landry
LSU has held down the DBU moniker so far, holding teams to less than 200 yards passing per game and totaling a nation-high 14 interceptions on the season. The Tiger secondary, led by All-American sophomore cornerback Greedy Williams, have stifled Ole Miss’ “Nasty Wideouts” and quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and virtually made Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm unusable in the first half.
This week presents an entirely different challenge. Alabama quarterback and Heisman-favorite Tua Tagovailoa has yet to play a fourth quarter this season, yet is almost averaging 260 yards per game and has 25 touchdowns on the season. Alabama has scored on the opening drive in every game this season, while LSU has not allowed a first-quarter touchdown in their last 12 games — since facing Alabama in 2017.
Tagovailoa is not the only reason this Alabama passing game is such a threat. Five of the Tide’s receivers have at least 21 catches, with Jerry Jeudy leading the way at 31 catches for 777 yards. That offense is aggressive, but so is Dave Aranda’s defense.
Everybody knows by now not to throw in Williams’ direction, but all of DBU will need to step up on a big-time stage and shut down Alabama’s historic passing game. And Tagovailoa has to throw an interception eventually.
Score prediction: LSU 24, Alabama 35
To kick or not to kick? | Chris Caldarera
Nick Saban has a reputation for being one of the most prepared coaches in football. In fact, it was once reported that Saban and his coaching staff spend at least 15 minutes discussing every possible outcome of the opening coin toss. While many would say spending that much time deliberating a fifty-fifty outcome is a bit much, this week’s opening coin toss has been on the minds of many Tiger fans.
Should LSU win the coin toss, the original school of thought is to elect to kickoff to begin the game. This way, the Tiger defense would be able to capitalize on the fever-pitch crowd noise at the start of the game while the offense would have the luxury of opening up the second half.
However, many fans are speculating that since LSU will be without star linebacker Devin White in the first half, the Tigers should receive the ball to begin the game. This strategy would theoretically give Alabama one less offensive drive in the first half and one more offensive drive in the second half.
Limiting the Crimson Tide’s offensive possessions with White on the sideline isn’t the only goal here. Alabama has scored a touchdown on the first drive of every game this season, and an opening touchdown would put a damper on what should be an electric Tiger Stadium crowd.
Regardless of what LSU decides on the coin toss, the Tiger defense will have to play four full quarters of football if they want to stymie a Crimson Tide offense that’s scoring 54.1 points per game.
Score prediction: LSU 33 Alabama 31
Can Coach O serve up a rat poison gumbo? | Jarrett Major
Alabama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban gained national attention after criticizing the media for their coverage of Alabama after the Crimson Tide demolished Texas A&M 45-21. Saban was upset that there was not enough negative coverage of the Tide.
It is not the first time he has been concerned about the overwhelming positive coverage of the Tide. Last season, Saban called it “rat poison” because it might cause his team to grow haughty and fall in battle.
However, Saban’s call for criticism seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Yahoo Sports writer Pete Thamel recently wrote that LSU does not stand a chance. The SEC Network’s Dari Nowkhah claimed that no one was close to the Tide after Alabama steamrolled the hapless Tennessee Volunteers 58-21.
The idea that Alabama is in a league of its own and everyone else is playing for second is not new, but it has never been this deeply held. If the LSU Tigers are going to win, rat poison is going to need to be the plat du jour on Saturday.
Score prediction: LSU 27 Alabama 31
Hold on to that ball | Glen West
We all know one of the many catchphrases LSU coach Ed Orgeron uses is “Hold that Tiger,” something said when a recruit commits to play football in Baton Rouge. This week the LSU offense needs to rephrase the meaning by holding on to the ball.
With Devin White missing the first half on Saturday, it’ll be imperative for the offense to have long, methodical drives to keep Tua and company off the field.
That’s not to say the defense can’t hold its own, but limiting the amount of drives Alabama has to score should be the main priority. Not to mention the two guys who will most likely fill in White’s absence, sophomore Patrick Queen and freshman Micah Baskerville, have a combined 31 tackles on the season.
It’s true this will be the toughest defense Alabama has seen and probably will see all regular season, but the same can be said for its offense, a demon the LSU defense has yet to face.
Score Prediction: LSU 27, Alabama 24
Roundtable: Can LSU upset No. 1 Alabama?
November 2, 2018
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