The International Energy Agency released its World Energy Outlook for 2010 last November, which announced global conventional oil production peaked in 2006. The announcement gave credence to claims by followers of the late geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who developed the theory of “peak oil” to explain how petroleum reserves are depleted over time.
Hubbert’s theory was based on observation of individual oil wells, which tend to increase their production over time as infrastructure is developed and then eventually reach a maximum value before declining in production. Wells are finally abandoned when the cost of extracting the remaining oil becomes too great.
Hubbert argued this phenomenon not only affected individual wells, but also the sum of individual wells making up a nation’s aggregate oil production.
The theory of peak oil has come a long way since Hubbert’s first predictions in the 1950s. Hubbert claimed U.S. oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. By the 1970s, the truth of Hubbert’s prediction became indisputable, as U.S. oil production has steadily declined since hitting its maximum of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970.
For the last few decades, Hubbert’s followers have attempted to refine his methods and predict when global peak oil will occur. Most of these predictions fall between 2000 and 2020, but because a peak value can only be observed after several years of decline, determining when global production has passed its peak is difficult.
According to the IEA, the peak for conventional oil production (excluding “unconventional” heavy oil, tar sands, oil produced from natural gas, etc.) occurred in 2006 at 70 million barrels per day. However, the agency believes global oil production will plateau slightly below the peak for at least the next 20 years. By contrast, popular peak oil theory predicts a near-immediate decline in output after peak production is reached.
While peak oil models are usually concerned primarily with resource availability, the IEA believes countries’ reactions to climate change will play a major part in decreasing oil demand. The report also cites growing economies, particularly in China and India, as serious factors in the world’s fossil fuel future.
The U.S. currently makes up less than 5 percent of the world’s population but consumes more than 20 percent of the world’s oil.
By contrast, China and India make up nearly 40 percent of the world’s population and consume less than 15 percent of the world’s oil. As these economies develop, they will have an undeniable effect on global oil demand despite the commitment of other nations to fossil fuel reduction.
The IEA report also predicts a dramatic increase in the production of unconventional oil sources, particularly Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan heavy oil. Unfortunately, these oil sources create serious environmental concerns both in terms of pollution and an increased carbon footprint over conventional oil.
Unconventional oil is also an inferior option because of its low energy returned on energy invested (EROEI). Depending on who you ask, tar sands produce anywhere from 1.5 to 6 times the energy they require for production. While advances in technology could improve yield, tar sands will likely never compare to the much higher EROEI of conventional oil and other energy sources.
Whether the world has passed peak oil production or not, when the peak does occur, consumers should expect increasingly high oil and gas prices unless significant portions of declining production can be replaced with alternatives. Ideally, these alternatives would be sustainable, but the U.S. will certainly pursue unconventional oil if it can lower gas prices right now, regardless of what it means for our or the planet’s future.
Andrew Shockey is a 20-year-old biological engineering sophomore from Baton Rouge. Follow him on Twitter @TDR_Ashockey.
 
____
Contact Andrew Shockey at [email protected]