As eight teams have proven this season — not to mention the dozens from years past — Alabama and Nick Saban are tough to beat.
That’s the furthest thing from breaking news, but with LSU riding into this matchup against the No. 1 team in the land with an extreme amount of confidence, it needs to be said. Alabama has been dominant for the better part of the last decade, and only 14 coaches in college football have managed to beat Saban’s Alabama teams.
On Saturday, LSU’s interim coach Ed Orgeron will try to add his name to that list.
Orgeron and company have made tremendous strides in revamping what was an anemic Tiger offense. Scoring at least 38 points in each of his three games as head coach and limiting an explosive Ole Miss offense to only two touchdowns, have made the Tigers confident they can end the five-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide.
But, as any of Alabama’s eight opponents so far this season can tell you, it takes more than confidence to beat Bama. You need a stingy defense, some good quarterback play and, most importantly, a little luck.
Here’s a look at what the Tigers need to do to have a chance at beating Alabama:
Get a lead early
Alabama has outscored opponents 71-23 in the first quarter, while LSU has come out of the gates a little sluggishly in the last three contests. The good news for LSU? They have shut down teams in the second half.
If LSU can end the first half with a lead, or at least keep it close, it definitely keeps the Tigers competitive. The Tigers’ defense held Ole Miss to 104 total yards, six first downs and zero points in the second half. LSU also forced four three-and-outs in Ole Miss’ seven second-half drives.
Orgeron’s team is definitely able to hang onto a lead. So if LSU ends the first half ahead, the Tigers definitely have a chance.
Contain Jalen Hurts
The Crimson Tide’s freshman quarterback may not be one of the SEC’s premier passers, but he has established himself as one of the top rushers.
Hurts has rushed 95 times for 521 yards and nine touchdowns. He ranks 15th for rushing yards in the SEC, and has the third-most out of SEC quarterbacks behind only Texas A&M quarterback Trevor Knight and Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. He’s tied with Knight for first in the SEC for rushing touchdowns.
While he’s not in the same league as Hurts and Knight, LSU’s defense prevented Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly from doing much with his legs. While Kelly managed to get 18 more yards against LSU than his season average, he did so with three more carries than his average. On the year, Kelly has averaged 4.1 yards per carry and got 4.7 against LSU.
LSU’s secondary should be able to wrangle in Alabama’s passing game, as long as they keep all-world receiver Calvin Ridley tightly covered. But if LSU can’t keep Hurts from using his legs, it’ll be tough to pull out a win.
Limit offensive mistakes
If you’ve turned on ESPN at least once in the last two weeks, you know Alabama has scored non-offensive touchdowns in its last 10 games dating back to the end of last season. In total, the Crimson Tide has scored 12 non-offensive touchdowns — this season, nine of those on defense.
The scariest part? Alabama has scored these touchdowns in every way imaginable — interceptions, fumble recoveries and long returns. LSU has been pretty solid on kick and punt coverage this year, but Alabama’s defense poses a problem.
For the most part, LSU junior quarterback Danny Etling has done a good job protecting the ball. He’s only thrown three interceptions, and it certainly helps that Alabama All-American safety Eddie Jackson, who was responsible for three of Alabama’s non-offensive scores, is out for the remainder of the season.
If LSU snaps the Tide’s streak, that’s a nice boost. That alone won’t be enough to win, but it doesn’t hurt.