The “Atlanta” bracket, which experts say is the toughest to win, promises to provide more intriguing match-ups than the other three regions.
Early upsets and close calls from mid-level seeds will be expected from the region formerly known as the “South,” but not from the four favorites in this region.
Duke, Mississippi State, Texas and North Carolina can afford to look ahead to second-round opponents because those teams will not face much resistance in the opening round.
Duke’s road to the Final Four
Perennial powerhouse No. 1 Duke was awarded top seed in Atlanta after winning the regular season Atlantic Coast Conference Championship, but should face the toughest road of the four No. 1 seeds.
Arizona will be a dangerous potential second-round match-up. North Carolina, Texas and Mississippi State also could pose problems for the Blue Devils, assuming Duke survives the first three rounds.
Despite facing the toughest bracket, the Blue Devils should win the Atlanta region. Duke has point guard Chris Duhon, who will expose No. 3 Texas’ lack of a true point guard, a deeper bench than No. 6 UNC and players with more tournament experience than No. 2 Mississippi State.
State’s return to prominence
Second seed Mississippi State re-introduced itself as a contender, winning the regular season Southeastern Conference title with the help of Baylor transfer Lawrence Roberts.
The SEC player of the Year may not be enough for the Bulldogs for this post-season run because odds are that a limited bench will haunt the Bulldogs. Expect that short bench to catch up to the Bulldogs in the Elite Eight against Duke.
Longhorns lack experience Brandon Mouton will lead an experienced and talented No. 3 Texas to lock horns with Ivy League Champion Princeton. Texas should have no problems with Princeton, as the Longhorns are too deep, too experienced, and too talented to lose too early. Their lack of a true point guard will not hurt Texas until the second round, when they will fall to North Carolina.
Tarheels a tough No. 6
North Carolina may prove early that it is too much for an Air Force team many experts believe does not belong in the tournament, going 22-6, but winning six games against teams with rankings worse than 300.
The Tar Heels, led by Roy Williams and the most talented starting five in the country, are a dangerous team many experts are picking to go to the Final Four.
North Carolina’s notoriously short bench probably will do them in before the Final Four. Expect that match to be against Mississippi State in the Sweet 16.
Toss Ups and Upsets
The match between No. 7 Xavier and No. 10 Louisville will be one of the most intriguing in the first round. Xavier’s rebounding and physical style may be too much for an underachieving Louisville team that has key players recovering from injury, and did not rebound well when they were healthy. Francisco Garcia and Taquan Dean will make it interesting, but Louisville’s inconstent play will cost the Cardinals a first-round exit.
The No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats, who perennially underachieve under coach Bob Huggins, may not go far in this year’s tournament either. Their opponent, No. 13 East Tennessee State, makes up for what they lack in height with quickness and defensive intensity, leading the nation with 11.6 steals per game. East Tennessee State also won 16-consecutive games before losing their regular season finale. Cincinnati will be upset this year, and it will happen in the first round.
The winner of the match between No. 8 Seton Hall and No. 9 Arizona will be a tough opponent for Duke, especially if Arizona wins. If Seton Hall defeats the Wildcats, they will not do it with over-powering physical presence.
Seton Hall is a short team, with a 6-foot-8, 240-pound starting center and no true backup big men. When the Wildcats decide to play to their potential, they can be dangerous. Chances are they will beat Seton Hall and lose a tough battle to Duke in the second round.
The match-up between No. 5 Illinois and mid-major representative No. 12 Murray State is full of potential for another upset. Illinois will bring a balanced team into the tournament, with all starters averaging between nine and 13 points and between four and seven rebounds per game. The Fighting Illini bring in a young team, with no seniors in their regular rotation and no one player to carry them through the final minutes of close games. Murray State has a deeper and more experienced team that regularly plays nine players, six of them seniors. Look for Murray State’s experience to take over the game down the stretch.
Conference champions Alabama State, Monmouth and Princeton realized their dreams of making the NCAA tournament. Chances are they all will have rude awakenings, playing against first-round opponents Duke, Mississippi State and Texas, respectively.