Baton Rouge residents hoping for cooler temperatures will need to wait a bit longer, as meteorologists expect no cold fronts to creep in before Halloween.
According to WBRZ Chief Meteorologist Josh Eachus, the current warm weather pattern will likely persist into early November.
“We are not going to see a cold front before Halloween. I can say that definitively,” Eachus said.
Typically, October brings a noticeable shift towards fall conditions, with average highs around 70 degrees Fahrenheit and lows around 50 degrees Fahrenheit. However, this October has been notably warmer, with this month being the fifth warmest on record, mainly due to the high temperatures we have seen at the end of this month.
“Average highs should be in the 70s by the end of the month, but we’ve had a long run of days in the upper 80s,” Eachus said.
Nighttime temperatures, which have hovered near average recently, are also expected to rise. Temperatures at night are expected to reach into the high 60s, about 10 degrees above average, through most of the week.
This prolonged period of warmth is tied to a larger weather pattern across the U.S., with cooler-than-normal temperatures in the West and warmer-than-average conditions in the East. While these shifting weather patterns aren’t uncommon, the unusually high temperatures Baton Rouge is experiencing stand out.
“Some years, it completely flip-flops with the East seeing cooler temperatures and the West seeing warmer temperatures for this time of year. But this year, we are just stuck under one of those warmer patterns,” Eachus said.
Adding to these weather challenges is an ongoing dry streak that extends beyond Louisiana, with large parts of the United States facing drought conditions for weeks. Louisiana is on track to experience one of its longest dry spells on record. There is a slight chance of rain next week, including a few light showers around Halloween, but Eachus expects them to be minimal and unlikely to disrupt trick-or-treating.
Oceanography and Coastal Science Professor Paul Miller explained that persistent high-pressure atmospheric systems are to blame for the dry conditions.
“We’ve been seeing a lot of high pressure in the atmosphere over the last few weeks,” Miller said. “This descending air prevents clouds and rain from forming, leading to this ‘Groundhog Day’ type of weather where the weather stays the same for weeks.”
He also noted that the lack of cold fronts this fall is unusual, as they typically start arriving around mid-September. While a few cold fronts have come through, they haven’t lasted, which is uncommon for this time of year. Cold fronts often bring rain, so their absence may also be contributing to the extended dry spell Baton Rouge is experiencing.
While cooler weather may finally arrive in November, it remains uncertain exactly when.
“After Halloween, I have started to see some indications that things could get a little cooler,” Miller said. “The model shows a real cool-down around Election Day, November 5th, but I would never place money on a two-week model.”
Eachus also noted the unpredictability of fall weather patterns.
“Historically, we dip below 60 degrees by September 23, hit the 40s by October 11, and get our first freeze in the third week of November,” he said. “But some years, the first freeze doesn’t happen until January.”
Baton Rouge residents will likely need to wait until mid-to-late November to feel a significant shift toward cooler temperatures.
“If you’re looking for fall or winter-type weather, you’re going to have to move to the western side of the United States,” Eachus joked.
In the meantime, residents can expect more of the same warm and dry conditions through Halloween and the start of November.
