Since LSU’s 25-24 loss to Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, the hot topic surrounding Tiger football hasn’t been a second-straight bowl loss, another under whelming offensive outing or even LSU’s divisional rival, Alabama, claiming the crystal ball again.
Instead, an unprecedented 10 LSU underclassmen declaring for the NFL Draft has dominated college football headlines, both locally and nationally.
Eye-popping as that double-digit tally is, it hasn’t just been the sheer number that’s turning heads.
It’s a punter leaving half of his eligibility on the table.
It’s junior cornerback Tharold Simon — who was last seen getting torched all New Year’s Eve long by Clemson’s DeAndre Hopkins and who isn’t even a top-10 cornerback prospect — being so eager to jump ship.
After a joyless first half of the 2012 season and a roller coaster final portion, the draft deluge created more questions than answers.
“It’s unprecedented, it’s unusual, and it’s a turning point in draft decisions,” said NFL Draft expert Mike Detillier. “There’s never been this many underclassmen leaving one school together.”
DECISIONS, DECISIONS
Going back to the 2011 spring camp, scouts tabbed this junior class as an NFL gold mine.
It didn’t disappoint. Defensive linemen Sam Montgomery, Bennie Logan and Barkevious Mingo and safety Eric Reid all grade out as first-round selections.
Forgoing first-round money and status is rare, making the quartet’s decision unassailable.
Linebacker Kevin Minter is projected as a second-round pick, but he just turned in one of the best seasons ever by a Tiger linebacker, recording 130 tackles (15 for a loss) and four sacks, recovering two fumbles and intercepting two passes.
He also graduated last month, leaving little left to accomplish at the collegiate level.
The decisions of running backs Michael Ford and Spencer Ware were curious from a production standpoint. Neither has made an All-Conference team or pumped out a 1,000-yard season. Both are projected as mid-round picks.
But with Jeremy Hill’s emergence, Alfred Blue’s impending return and Kenny Hilliard’s prolific touchdown production, neither would likely improve their stock in a crowded backfield while only risking injury.
Detillier said Brad Wing grades out the highest of any punter in the last decade and would be the top kicker chosen whenever he left.
Simon’s decision was admittedly difficult. Another year as LSU’s No. 1 corner could have raised his stock, but personal concerns pushed Simon, who recently became a father, toward the pros.
“It is with mixed emotions and serious consideration with my family that I have decided to enter the 2013 NFL Draft,” Simon said in a news release.
Chris Faulk was lost in the whole shuffle. After his season-ending knee injury against North Texas, the left tackle was largely out of sight, out of mind. It was assumed another year at LSU awaited.
Faulk grades out as a second-round choice, even with rehab on his knee still ongoing.
Another setback could leave him with the dreaded “injury-prone” label, making a return risky.
That business mindset has finagled its way into the college ranks, as players re-evaluate draft stock with the NFL’s change in rookie contracts.
For LSU coach Les Miles, that change is just the cost of doing business at an elite football factory.
“We recruit very talented players with the understanding that there’s a choice that they may have to make following their junior year,” Miles said in a news release.
SEA CHANGE
Get used to the early exits, LSU fans. It may not be a stretch to see a handful of Tiger juniors or more declare each January.
Detillier said the still-fresh NFL rookie wage scale — which was enacted in 2011 and lessens the fiscal reward for top draft picks — has “rearranged” players’ draft decisions.
“There is no $60 or $40 million contract waiting for you anymore right out of college,” he said. “It used to pay a lot to move from a mid-second to a first-round pick. It’s still more money but hardly astronomical.”
That puts a premium on a player’s second contract. With eight-figure paydays truly awaiting only the top 15 picks, it’s better to start money earlier in the hopes of landing a major raise sooner.
“The Powerball prize isn’t being drafted in the first round,” Detillier said. “Getting picked is the lottery now. Your second and third contracts are the Powerball.”
LSU players in the pros have proven prime examples for the second contract’s significance. Former Tiger quarterback Matt Flynn earned a three-year, $19.5 million deal with the Seahawks after his rookie deal with the Packers expired.
Former LSU running back Stevan Ridley ran for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns with the Patriots this season, already making him one of the NFL’s most coveted young rushers.
“Guys like Ford or Ware look at Ridley, who they played with, and think they can do what he’s doing,” Detillier said. “We aren’t living in great economic times, either. Where else can you walk right out of college and make $400,000 or $500,000 at 22, 23 years old?”
THE FALLOUT
The immediate aftermath of losing 10 junior contributors, not to mention a senior class, scans as nothing short of brutal.
The defense, in particular, loses seven full-time players, including four on the defensive line.
But the long-term effects of 10 players leaving — and the attention it brings — could boost LSU’s profile.
Even more recruits may listen when LSU comes calling, as April’s NFL Draft could resemble a billboard for the program.
“That’s a commercial LSU couldn’t afford to buy,” Detillier said. “You see LSU’s name for possibly 11 or 12 picks, and it’s an unpaid advertisement for the quality of program you have.”
The defections also create instant opportunities for playing time. Four-star defensive tackle Greg Gilmore already said an opportunity to play immediately heavily swayed his November commitment to the Tigers.
Better recruits only strengthens the cycle, one that will keep on churning and not just for LSU. The Tigers need look no further than Alabama, which has already lost several junior standouts after what was seen as a rebuilding year for its talent base.
