As expected, a lot has changed since the last time I discussed the SEC back in Week 2. Dark horses that had been predicted then have either disappeared in the race for their respective divisions or have remained very much alive in that regard. Most notably, each division’s No. 1 spot appears to be up for grabs.
I’ll cover this topic the same way I did last time, comparing prior expectations to what actually occurred for each division, starting with…
The East
After Week 2, not much had changed compared to preseason expectations.
Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida looked to battle for the No. 2 spot, with the Wildcats earning the early edge with their victory over Florida and the Vols jumping in the polls after defeating No. 17 Pittsburgh. Missouri and Vanderbilt remained primed for a battle to not finish last, and South Carolina was still a mystery after its 14-point loss to No. 16 Arkansas.
So…
What remained the same?
Well, what was most predictable turned out to be true, in one regard at least. The bottom teams of the East have yet to win a conference game, though Missouri has impressed more than Vanderbilt has.
After losing a heartbreaker in overtime to Auburn, the Missouri Tigers’ response caught every SEC fan base off guard. In Week 5, they held a two-score lead early in the fourth quarter over No. 1 Georgia, and though they would ultimately falter in their pursuit of the biggest upset of 2022, fans wondered if this team had finally figured something out. It would suffer another close loss to an iffy Florida team the next week, but it outpaced the Gators in yardage and first downs and came 48 yards short of sending the game to overtime late in the fourth.
Vanderbilt did get its toughest run of its schedule out of the way, with one bye separating it from three straight weeks against top teams in the SEC (Alabama, University of Mississippi and Georgia). Though it was blown out in each of those games, it provided Ole Miss with a brief scare in their matchup, with it taking a 21-0 barrage by the Rebels in the third to put the Commodores away.
Each team is still a question mark in regard to making a bowl game, so this upcoming game between the pair is a must-win for both teams.
What’s changed?
While South Carolina remains mostly a mystery midway through the season, its Week 6 victory over No. 13 Kentucky provides it with the potential to beat its preseason projection of finishing fifth in the conference. Granted, the Gamecocks faced the Wildcats without their centerpiece found in quarterback Will Levis, but with a 4-2 record, one SEC win and Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida remaining on their schedule, a run for the fourth spot is manageable.
That also depends heavily on whether Spencer Rattler can get it together or not, with his five-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season holding his offense back. But he has, at the very least, had some better performances as of late, completing over 70% of his passes in his last three games.
It also depends on the continued success of running back Marshawn Lloyd.
After averaging less than three yards per carry through the first three games of the season, Lloyd exploded for a 169-yard, three touchdown performance against Charlotte. He hasn’t looked back since. The back put up 141 all-purpose yards and a rushing touchdown against a formidable Kentucky defense in Week 6, cementing his recent stellar play as more than just a fluke.
He was a pleasant surprise for an offense that was expected to run through Rattler and the pass game.
The Gamecocks sport one less loss than Florida with their next four games being winnable, and currently sit at the edge of the top 25 with the fourth most votes of teams outside of it.
The Gators also have a relatively easy stretch of games after their game against No. 1 Georgia next Saturday, including matchups against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Florida State. They’ve looked solid offensively in their last two losses to Tennessee and LSU, but their defense seems to be holding them back, as they sit near the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency according to ESPN’s Power Index. That was most apparent in their loss to LSU, as they gave 45 points and six straight touchdown drives to the Tigers.
They’ve taken a step back in the race for the No. 2 spot in the conference. Kentucky managed a solid bounce-back win against No. 16 Mississippi State to keep from dropping its third straight game and maintain its spot in the polls, and Tennessee is a College Football Playoff contender.
In fact, the only thing standing in the way of a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup between Georgia and Tennessee in a few weeks is Ohio State. The Volunteers jumped to No. 3 after securing their first win over Alabama since 2006. Georgia is No. 1 but has proven to be mortal lately, struggling to close out its game against Kent State before narrowly avoiding the aforementioned upset to Missouri. The Bulldogs managed to blow out Auburn most recently, but you know…
The West
By Week 2, Texas A&M had already proven to be a fraudulent playoff contender, Mississippi State had displayed improvement by shattering its spread projections and Alabama had shown potential weakness against then unranked Texas. Along with the Bulldogs, Arkansas also seemed primed to compete for the No. 2 spot in the West, albeit with a rough defensive performance against South Carolina.
Other than that, Ole Miss and LSU were the mystery teams of the West, and Auburn looked terrible.
What remained the same?
While the Aggies temporarily bounced back with back-to-back victories over No. 13 Miami and No. 10 Arkansas, they would quickly fall back down to earth with back-to-back losses to Mississippi State and No. 1 Alabama, with those wins aging like milk as the weeks wore on.
Speaking of Alabama, it finally suffered its first loss of the season to Tennessee after close calls against Texas and Texas A&M, the latter of which came about a yard short of making Tennessee’s win in the preceding week a little less impressive. The Crimson Tide are still primed to take the No. 1 spot in the West for the third time in a row, but penalties, receivers and secondary remain considerable weaknesses that could cost them.
Its Iron Bowl counterpart in Auburn is still the worst team in the division, but it keeps doing just enough to keep the program from firing head coach Bryan Harsin. Whether it’s a horrid overtime “win” over Missouri, a close loss to LSU (where it blew a 17-0 lead) or almost coming back against Ole Miss after a bad start, it seems the War Eagle fan base will be stuck in misery for the rest of the season.
What’s changed?
LSU and Ole Miss are still mysterious, but each program has serious potential to claim at least a spot in the top three of the West.
The Rebels had one tough opponent on their path to 7-0 in Kentucky, but they managed a win there (it doesn’t matter how badly Kentucky shot themselves in the foot). Their strength has been the run game, which ranks third in the nation in yardage behind two triple option teams in Air Force and Army. Their weakness seems to be defense, but whether that’s against the run or the pass remains questionable.
Against Tulsa, Ole Miss defended the pass well but gave up over 250 rushing yards on six yards per rush. Against Vanderbilt, it defended the run well but gave up 281 passing yards on a 71% completion rate to freshman quarterback AJ Swann. Against Auburn, it gave up 301 rushing yards but forced Robby Ashford to throw two interceptions and held him to under 50% in completed passes.
It’s probably one of the iffiest 7-0 teams in the country, with close calls against Auburn and Tulsa, and even Vanderbilt for two quarters, but head coach Lane Kiffin has proven to be difficult to defeat on most occasions and the potential regarding its overall talent on offense is practically limitless.
LSU was the opposite of Ole Miss early on, with its strength in defense playing a large role in its win over Mississippi State and its offense struggling to consistently move the ball through its first few games. But as the Tiger offense started to find its footing, something strange happened: its defense started progressing backwards.
Granted, the Tigers did lose their vocal leader in safety Major Burns, but that doesn’t explain the missed tackles against Tennessee and Florida.
Despite that, the Tigers are 5-2 with three SEC wins and the potential to outperform their preseason projections, which had them winning seven or eight games. They have respectable wins over Mississippi State and Florida and came one blocked PAT from a probable overtime win against Florida State in their opening game.
Their offense had its best performance of the season in their most recent matchup with Florida, headlined by an incredible six-total-touchdown performance from Jayden Daniels and the re-emergence of wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. If their defense can return to performing how it did against Mississippi State and the special teams unit, which is still making game-to-game mistakes, gets it together quickly, this team could surprise a lot of fans in the SEC.
Speaking of Mississippi State, it briefly recaptured its dark horse narrative with two considerable, three-score wins over Texas A&M and Arkansas, but it followed those up with a loss to Kentucky. Still, it has five wins on the season already, which puts them three away from surpassing its highest win total under Leach with likely wins over Auburn and East Tennessee State remaining on its schedule. The Bulldogs just have to secure one win against Alabama (coming off a loss), Georgia or Ole Miss. Or they can just… win their bowl game.
Lastly, the other team I had projected as a dark horse, Arkansas, fell off big time. After achieving their highest ranking of the season at No. 10, the Razorbacks narrowly avoided an upset loss to Missouri State before dropping three straight to Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State. They still sit among the top of the SEC West in offensive efficiency, but their defense is holding them back immensely, giving up an average of over 40 points in their last three games.
We may be halfway through the college football season now, and though there are no longer endless possibilities, a lot could still change. Remember, don’t disregard a single game. Anything can happen in college football, and the SEC is no exception to that.
