Arizona State football is not in an ideal situation heading into the 2022-23 college football season. Since their promising 8-5 campaign in 2019 headlined by then-freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels, they’ve displayed little improvement on the field and are now under investigation for recruiting violations.
This has led to many players on the team opting for a change of scenery including Daniels, who transferred to LSU after the 2021 season. With the football program in turmoil, all eyes have turned to their head coach, Herm Edwards.
Prior to the hiring of Edwards, Arizona State was coming off two disappointing seasons with then head coach Todd Graham. After losing just seven combined games during the 2013 and 2014 seasons, the Sun Devils lost seven in each of their next two seasons before finishing the Todd Graham era off with a 7-6 record and a blowout loss in the Sun Bowl.
They took a chance on Edwards and while he didn’t do anything too unexpected his first season, he did have some unexpected victories.
The Sun Devils manhandled the PAC-12 South division winner in Utah, dominating most statistical categories and illustrating their potential under Edwards. The future looked bright, and what happened next would send their expectations through the roof.
2019: The Emergence of Jayden Daniels
With quarterback Manny Wilkins graduating after the 2018 season, Jayden Daniels was immediately thrust into the starting role as a freshman.
He would adjust quickly, nearly surpassing 3000 passing yards, completing 61% of his passes with a stellar touchdown-to-interception ratio of 17-2. In tight-game scenarios, he showed that he could put the team on his back, catching fire in crunch time on multiple occasions.
He did throw an interception that cost them against Colorado, but aptly responded with strong performances in his next two matchups. This included an incredible fourth quarter against Washington State where he completed 82% of his passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was a game-winning, 17-yard rush.
They looked like a formidable PAC-12 contender with Daniels at quarterback, starting the season 5-1, there was just one problem.
Defense, what’s that?
Despite holding No. 18 Michigan State to seven points early in the season, that proved to be a fluke once conference play began.
In losses against Colorado and UCLA, both of which sported mediocre offenses, their opponents scored at will, with Colorado scoring on every first half possession and UCLA attributing six touchdowns in their first seven possessions. Jayden Daniels was often forced to play catch up to give his team a chance.
This team was frustrating, looking like a PAC-12 contender against the conference’s best teams and ineffective against their worst. They took down three ranked teams, including No. 6 Oregon and No. 15 Cal, and nearly beat USC without Daniels on the field.
You cannot tell me a team that is capable of defeating the best, third best and fourth best teams in their conference can’t beat the seventh, eighth and ninth. That illustrates a lack of discipline, which has become a theme throughout the program’s time with Edwards.
Questionable losses, questionable decisions
After fighting back from a fourteen-point deficit against Oregon State and shutting down their opponent’s offense, Edwards decided to risk the game in a situation where it wasn’t warranted, opting to go for two rather than tying the game with an extra point. They had all the momentum and probably would have carried it into overtime and won but instead, they failed the conversion and lost.
It may be just one in-game moment, but it’s moments like this that put Edwards’ lack of composure and decision-making skills on display.
He would then fire his offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Rob Likens, who had done an amazing job at minimizing Daniels’ mistakes while also giving him endless opportunities to make big plays despite his lack of experience and mediocre offensive line. While Likens’ offenses struggled at times, particularly in the first half, he had just two seasons with the program and demonstrated enough positives to warrant at least another year with the program.
It was clear throughout conference play that defense was the team’s main problem, as they gave up 29 points per game against in-conference foes. But rather than fire their defensive coordinator (who left under his own volition), they fired someone that their freshman centerpiece built good chemistry with and had been developing well under.
2021: How a discipline drop-off killed a championship run
In the team’s first three losses of the 2021-22 season, they either lost the turnover battle, attributed over 100 yards in penalties or both.
They faced off against BYU early on, outplaying them in terms of yardage, third-down efficiency and yards per pass and rush attempt. But it seemed like every time they were about to steal the momentum, they turned the ball over.
This began right from the start, with Arizona State fumbling on the opening kickoff, which led to seven points the other way just three plays later. They went on to commit three more turnovers (all in or near BYU territory) and 16 penalties, with every mistake stagnating any momentum they were able to obtain.
They would lose 27-17, losing solely based on discipline.
After effectively responding to their loss to BYU and dominating their next three games, including a 19-point victory over No. 20 UCLA, they were up by fourteen at halftime against Utah when…
Have you heard about the brief disappearance of Utah’s punter?
All jokes aside, Arizona State took its foot off the gas and lost focus, surrendering a touchdown on every defensive possession and getting outscored 28-0 in what can best be described as an implosion on both sides of the ball. Unlike their last matchup, where Utah was clearly the better team, Arizona State was on the same level as Utah and through two quarters, they looked like the better of the two teams.
If Arizona State wins those two games, they are 7-0 heading into their easiest stretch of games. But instead, they were 5-2 with crushed morales. They lost their next matchup against Washington State in embarrassing fashion, with four turnovers committed by the end of the first half.
They finished the season with the same 8-5 record they had attained in the 2019 season, sporting no improvement in win total despite their star quarterback being more experienced, an uptick in yards per game and tremendous improvements on the defensive side of the ball.
Who’s the blame for Arizona State’s shortcomings?
While Arizona State finished the season in the top-25 in both points and yards given up per game defensively (a first under Edwards), the Sun Devils were near the bottom of the country in turnovers, penalties and red-zone offense, the latter of which was one of Likens’ strong suits. The offensive balance had also diminished, with their new offensive coordinator opting to become more run-oriented and taking away from one of Daniels’ biggest strengths.
He is a great runner, but his arm is the reason he was so effective during his freshman season.
He was still efficient in some regards, upping his completion rate and getting sacked less often than in his freshman season, but he threw just ten touchdown passes and matched that with his number of interceptions. While he ran for over 700 yards, those numbers were bolstered by his performances against Arizona, Stanford and Colorado, who had the worst rushing defenses in the PAC-12 last season.
While Daniels does share the blame for his shortcomings, I feel like most of his struggles came from the change in coaching staff, diminished receiving core and lack of leadership in terms of discipline and morale.
His previous offensive coordinator trusted him more and did a better job of complimenting his strengths. With a decreased number of pass attempts, it was likely more difficult to maintain a rhythm throughout the game, potentially leading to more interceptions.
Not to mention he no longer had Brandon Aiyuk or Frank Darby on his sideline. Although Arizona State did a solid job of recruiting wide receivers, they weren’t able to develop enough to make more of an impact. He won’t have that problem with LSU, who’s receiver room is filled with experienced talent, including Kayshon Boutte, Jack Bech, Malik Nabers and others.
The biggest problem in Arizona State football is discipline, and I don’t see that changing as long as Herm Edwards is head coach.
In his 2019 season, the team lost to three teams with losing records while beating three ranked teams in the process. I could understand if they had pulled a Stanford and beat just one, but it’s clear they were prepared for battle against the conference’s best and for playtime against its worst.
In their next full season in 2021, it was the turnovers and penalties, especially in key games. It’s not just about giving up possession and yardage, it’s about maintaining or establishing momentum. Penalties halt the game and push your team back, and turnovers are detrimental to an offense’s confidence.
Meanwhile, Brian Kelly’s teams have finished the past five seasons in the top-50 in terms of turnovers and while they’ve been inconsistent regarding penalties, they have just three finishes outside the top-60 in the category since 2013.
Daniels is in a better situation at LSU and will have time to develop under Brian Kelly, Mike Denbrock and Joe Sloan before theoretically taking over the offense in 2023 or sooner. While any prediction regarding the future discipline of LSU football is mostly speculative, each coach is well-tenured and has played vital roles on great teams.
With Kelly leading Notre Dame to multiple playoffs, Denbrock coordinating the offense for another playoff team in Cincinnati and Sloan playing multiple roles on a Conference-USA contender at Louisiana Tech, including inside wide receivers coach, assistant coach and offensive coordinator.
On the other hand, I don’t see Arizona State breaking that 8-5 plateau while Herm Edwards is still involved with the program. They might win some big games, but their endless problems will continue to crush them when it matters the most.