LSU men’s basketball isn’t very good right now.
The Tigers have lost 10 games straight, and the program feels night and day from what it was this time last year. To many though, that doesn’t come as much surprise.
LSU was forced to enter rebuild mode this season after former head coach Will Wade was fired last March after LSU received multiple Level I violations from the NCAA.
The fallout was massive.
Just weeks later, LSU was left without a single scholarship player and new head coach Matt McMahon had to rebuild the program from scratch. A few months later, LSU had a full roster again, one that consisted of six transfers, three freshmen and three returners who McMahon was able to re-recruit after initially entering the transfer portal.
Going into the season, expectations were tempered, but there was hope given some of the talent on the roster. Those expectations began to inflate as LSU finished non-conference play with an 11-1 record, the only loss coming against now No. 7 Kansas State.
Though the Tigers were winning, there were warning signs early in the season. LSU’s non-conference schedule ranks 326 out of 363 teams in the KenPom strength of schedule rankings, and LSU’s average point differential in non conference games is just +7.7.
The hype reached another high after an upset win over then No. 9 Arkansas, but LSU has yet to win a game since that Dec. 28 contest.
Over the last 10 games, almost nothing has gone right for LSU. Even though there have been small improvements in the last few games, only two of the losses during the streak have been by single digits.
While LSU sports a +7.7 average scoring margin in non-conference play, in SEC play, that number sits at -14.3. Rock bottom came in a 40-point loss against Alabama, where LSU was dominated from the opening tip, giving up 106 points in the loss.
Any 10-game losing streak is a nightmare situation for the team, but as LSU holds a 12-11 overall record, it’s worth comparing the first year under McMahon to other coaches in program history.
McMahon’s record in year one is nowhere near as bad as the 3-23 record LSU finished with in the 1966-1967 season. That ranks as the worst finish in school history and was the first year under Press Maravich.
The most comparable situation and season to LSU’s situation this year, is the 1997-1998 season. This was the first year under head coach John Brady who replaced Dale Brown after 25 years at LSU. Like this current season, LSU was in hot water with the NCAA, eventually being placed on probation in 1998, following an investigation revealing former LSU player Lester Earl was paid $5,000 by an LSU booster.
In that 1997-1998 season, LSU won just nine games, a mark it has already eclipsed this season. Brady’s team finished just 2-14 in conference play, a mark McMahon and LSU still have eight games to reach or eclipse this season.
To look at this comparison in a positive light, Brady led LSU to a 28-6 record and a Sweet Sixteen appearance in the NCAA Tournament just two seasons later. Brady went on to coach at LSU for 11 seasons, finishing as the third-winningest coach in LSU history after reaching four NCAA tournaments and one Final Four in 2006.
Circling back to LSU’s current 10-game funk, a more recent season serves as a good comparison. The 2016-2017 season was LSU’s worst since year one under Brady, as LSU finished 10-21 overall, resulting in the firing of then head coach Johnny Jones.
In that season, LSU once again won just two SEC games, and had its longest losing streak in school history, losing 15 straight between Jan. 4 and March 1.
There are a few different ways to compare the two teams, but for the sake of this article, let’s compare the two teams’ KenPom numbers.
The KenPom rankings are an analytics-based ranking system started by college basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy in the early 2000s. It ranks teams based on its adjusted efficiency margin which takes the difference between a team’s adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Those stats come from a team’s points scored and points allowed per every 100 possessions.
This season, LSU currently ranks 127th out of 363 Division I teams in KenPom with an adjusted efficiency margin of +3.6. This puts LSU 45 spots higher than its final KenPom ranking of the 2016-2017 season, where it ranked 172nd with an advanced efficiency margin of -0.25.
One thing to keep in mind when comparing the two, though, is the difference in strength of schedule. According to KenPom, LSU’s strength of schedule ranks 50th in the country compared to 34th in 2017. KenPom calculates strength of schedule by averaging the adjusted efficiency margin of a team’s opponents.
The bigger discrepancy comes when comparing the two teams’ non-conference schedule. This year’s team ranks 326th out of 363 Division I teams in non-conference strength of schedule with its non-conference opponents holding an average adjusted efficiency margin of -5.97. While LSU had four non-conference losses in the 2016-2017 season, it ranked 69th in non conference strength of schedule as its non-conference opponents held an advanced efficiency margin of +2.91.
Neither of these two seasons were as bad as the 2010-2011 season in terms of KenPom numbers. That was LSU’s lowest rank since the KenPom rankings began in 2002, as LSU finished the season ranked 232 with an adjusted efficiency margin of -5.68. What makes the 2010-2011 team look even worse is that its overall strength of schedule ranked 130th, 80 spots lower than this year’s team.
Looking at these metrics and past losing seasons should give some perspective on this current skid for LSU. While after 1998 John Brady was able to turn it around, that wasn’t the case for Jones in 2017 and Trent Johnson in 2011.
For McMahon, LSU made it clear that it was committed to a long term rebuild, giving McMahon a seven-year contract. Growing pains aren’t uncommon for first-year coaches, and with eight games left in this year’s regular season, the momentum of the program is still up in the air.
