The gaping hole in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination continues to grow.
In this year’s GOP contest, voter turnout has been significantly down compared to 2008 in nearly every state that’s voted so far.
It’s still early, but the current downtrend should be alarming to the conservative base.
In Florida, where Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney grabbed a substantial victory with a commanding 46 percent of the vote, overall turnout was down significantly from four years ago. This year, 1.7 million voted in the GOP primary, compared to 1.9 million in 2008.
Republicans have been deflated and unexcited by the weak field in this year’s contest.
In Colorado, 65,000 people voted this year, compared to 70,000 Republicans in 2008 and 121,000 Democrats.
In Missouri, 250,000 people voted in the GOP primary this year, compared to 588,000 Republicans in 2008 and 827,000 Democrats.
In Minnesota, 48,000 people voted this year, compared to 63,000 Republicans in 2008 and 214,000 Democrats.
In some areas, voter turnout has been strongest where people were energized to vote for a candidate who isn’t Mitt Romney.
According to election tracking of the Florida primary done by the United States Elections Project, turnout was up from four years ago in counties where rival Newt Gingrich did well and significantly down in counties where Romney dominated.
In South Carolina, where Gingrich clobbered Romney, turnout was up substantially from 445,000 four years ago to 606,000 this year.
Sure, Romney just won the ultra-low turnout Maine caucuses, but Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum swept Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado from him in one day last week.
Santorum’s hat trick proves just how uneasy Republican voters are with Romney, the presumed front-runner in the race.
In this year’s Missouri caucus, Romney attracted 100,000 fewer votes than he did in 2008. The same downward trend was seen in Minnesota and Colorado as well.
The dismal turnout in the contests should be a warning sign for Republicans.
The Washington Post had it right when it called the setbacks a “disaster.”
Aside from the split within its own party, the conservative base is now seeing an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. A Public Policy Polling survey shows that almost 6 in 10 Democrats, 58 percent, said they are “very excited” to vote later this year, compared to 54 percent of Republicans that answered the same. Even more troubling for the Republican Party, 25 percent of conservatives said they are “not at all excited” to vote in the 2012 presidential election.
Six months ago, this statistic was slanted in the opposite direction, when 48 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of Republicans said they were “very excited” to cast their votes in the fall.
The downslope in excitement may be partially attributed to the overall negative tone of the GOP contest.
Hell, the very intent of negative ads is to depress turnout, so they can’t say they didn’t see this coming.
However, the downtrend can be largely attributed to a distinct lack of excitement surrounding Romney.
Conservatives are confused by Romney’s record and his political views. There is a deepening rift between the party’s insurgent and establishment factions.
In a speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington on Friday, Romney dubbed himself a “severely conservative Republican.”
The problem is nobody believes him.
Legendary conservative activist Richard Viguerie cast doubt on the former governor’s sincerity.
“Romney has shown, once again, that he can mouth the words conservatives use, but he has no gut-level emotional connection with the conservative movement and its ideas and policies,” Viguerie said.
Even Republican bimbo Sarah Palin can see the ship is sinking.
“We can’t afford to have low voter turnout in the general election, and that is all the more reason for Romney to really start connecting more with conservatives,” Palin told CNN and The New York Times in an interview.
Facing lingering questions about his candidacy and the recent Santorum upswing, Romney will be spending precious extra time — and probably millions more in campaign funds — directly attacking Santorum with less time focused on challenging President Obama.
Romney now faces a war on two fronts: one against his own party, and the other against the Obama campaign.
At this point, it’s tough to say which is more important.
Matthew Westfall is a 23-year-old mass communication senior from Winchester, Va. Follow him on Twitter @TDR_mwestfall.
 
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Contact Matthew Westfall at [email protected]