As hurricane season approaches, climatologists all over the country project how this year’s season will shape up. Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project’s forecast predicts that 14 named storms will form in the Atlantic Basin this year. The project’s researchers predicted that seven of the storms will develop into hurricanes, four will be tropical storms and three will develop into intense hurricanes – category three or higher. Barry Keim, Louisiana state climatologist, said 10 named storms accounts for an average hurricane season. Hurricane season occupies the same six-month window each year from June 1 to Nov. 30, but the dates are flexible. “As we migrate out of the spring and into the summer, we’re gradually warming the sea surface temperature,” said Keim, geography and anthropology associate professor. “So we often think of June 1 as this magical date when all of the sudden we can start getting hurricanes and tropical storms, but it’s really not like it can’t happen on May 31, and then it can on June 1.” Keim said large numbers of storms begin forming in the Atlantic Basin around Sept. 10, the heart of hurricane season. Several factors determine the number of storms each year. “For a hurricane to form, you need warm sea surface temperatures and a favorable upper air environment,” Keim said. Keim said the climates fall into a pattern called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a term that depicts the sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Basin. “So here we are in another phase that started in 1995,” Keim said. “The sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. In most years we’re in this warm phase, we’re likely to have more storms than average. The mitigating factor is normally an El Niño.” The Tropical Meteorology Project predicted that 17 named storms would form last year, but only nine developed. Keim said last year’s projection was off because no one had anticipated El Niño’s development. He said El Niños occur when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise and disrupt circulation patterns. “It was a relatively weak El Niño, but it was enough to affect the hurricane season. And it made it fall below normal,” he said. Keim said last year’s hurricane season seemed calm because most of the storms stayed offshore. Holly Hebert, nursing freshman, said this year’s projection worries her because she does not want another storm like Hurricane Katrina to develop. “I’m sure it can happen, but probably not this year,” she said. “I mean, there’s always a possibility though.” Drew Cotten, mechanical engineering sophomore, said the occurrence of a storm with the magnitude of Katrina is probable. “It doesn’t really worry me, but it’s something we should definitely look into so we can be more prepared next time it happens,” he said.
—–Contact Angelle Barbazon at [email protected]