Number-crunching computers, complicated averages and human judgment marked the much-anticipated Bowl Championship Series rankings released Sunday.
LSU debuted at No. 4 in the 2007 BCS standings – behind No. 1 Ohio State (7-0), No. 2 South Florida (6-0) and No. 3 Boston College (7-0). The Tigers are the highest one-loss team in the standings and are 0.051 points behind Boston College and 0.08 points behind South Florida.
Despite LSU’s triple-overtime loss to then-No. 17 Kentucky this weekend, the Tigers still have a legitimate chance at the BCS National Championship game Jan. 7 in New Orleans. The nation’s unanimous No. 1 team going into the weekend dropped only four places in the USA Today Coaches poll and the Harris Interactive Poll after the close road loss to a quality opponent.
The BCS is calculated with three factors – an average of six separate computer rankings, the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive Poll of coaches, media and former players. Human voters are given more influence since voter polls comprise two-thirds of the BCS rankings.
With nearly half the season left to be played, plenty of possibilities remain. But the Tigers need to win all remaining games for a shot at the title.
South Florida is No. 1 in the computer rankings average, which considers strength of schedule but not margins of victory. No. 5 BCS-ranked Oklahoma benefitted from its No. 4 ranking in the polls, considering that the computers ranked the Sooners at No. 12.
BCS analyst Jerry Palm said if the top teams win out, LSU still stands a chance to leapfrog a team such as South Florida.
“What would help, would be if [LSU] wins big and dominates,” said Palm, who runs the BCS analysis Web site CollegeBCS.com. “What that might do is change the minds of some voters and convince them that even with a loss, they might still be a better team than South Florida.”
Palm said if the Ohio State Buckeyes win the rest of their games, their name recognition will keep them in the No. 1 spot. The Buckeyes will face Michigan State (5-2), Penn State (5-2), Wisconsin (5-2), Illinois (5-2) and No. 25 Michigan (5-2).
The Big 10 has not fared well outside of the conference, recording a 4-4 record against the other five power conferences with two of those wins coming against Big East foe Syracuse (1-6)
“Not many people would vote LSU above Ohio State,” Palm said. “Even though Ohio State might play the weakest schedule of [the BCS top five], the jersey still says Ohio State.”
What LSU needs, Palm said, is for either Boston College or South Florida to lose. The biggest challenge on Boston College’s remaining schedule will be Thursday’s game at No. 11 Virginia Tech (6-1). If the Eagles can finish the season atop the Atlantic Coast Conference’s Atlantic Division, they will have to face the Coastal Division’s winner in the recently-established ACC Championship.
If all teams do the unlikely and win their remaining games, Palm doubts LSU could move into one of the top two spots.
But this is somewhat familiar territory for LSU. In the 2003 BCS National Championship season, the Tigers lost Oct. 11 to Florida and later debuted as No. 12 in the BCS poll.
But Palm said changes in the BCS, such as the heavy weighting of human polls and lessened importance of schedule strength, make large jumps in the BCS much more difficult.
Should Tiger fans be looking over their shoulders at No. 5 Oklahoma? Palm said the 0.078 BCS point margin between LSU and Oklahoma gives the Tigers some breathing room.
Palm said LSU’s No. 2 ranking in the computer averages will help keep its advantage over Oklahoma. But even he cannot explain how voters picked Oklahoma, whose one loss came at the hands of an unranked Colorado team, over LSU in the polls.
“Voters have no long-term memory,” he said. “You cannot trust the voters to do what you think they should do.”
But an even lower team in the current rankings could play spoiler to the Tigers’ BCS title game hopes.
Palm said fans should watch undefeated No. 8 Arizona State. If the Sun Devils run the table, which would require beating No. 14 USC and No. 12 Cal, they could rise rapidly.
——Contact The Daily Reveille Sports staff at sports@lsureveille.com
LSU’s BCS title hopes still alive
October 16, 2007