Though the notably long and tiresome 2008 national election concluded just more than two weeks ago with the inauguration of Barack Obama, candidates are already racing on another campaign trail — the 2010 election season.U.S. Sen. David Vitter has emerged as a leading critic of the Obama administration’s cabinet nominations and major policy objectives — an indication he’s already laying groundwork for the 2010 election, according to some political observers. Vitter introduced a defeated U.S. Senate resolution Jan. 15 that would have prevented the U.S. Treasury from releasing the remaining $350 billion under the Troubled Asset Relief Program to the incoming Obama administration. Six days later, Vitter was one of only two U.S. Senators to vote against Hillary Clinton’s confirmation as secretary of state.Vitter has also voted against confirming other key Obama administration cabinet members, Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and Attorney General Eric Holder, both Democrats.And Vitter has made media appearances playing opposition to Obama’s proposed stimulus package and other major legislation — even making a high-profile trip Monday with fellow Republican U.S. Senators to Guantanamo Bay to protest Obama’s executive order closing the detention facility. To Bob Mann, political communication professor, Vitter’s recent actions — a stark contrast to the once-low-key senator in the aftermath of the D.C. Madam prostitution scandal — make it “abundantly clear” he is positioning himself with his base in Louisiana in preparation for the 2010 election. “Vitter’s in this period right now where he can’t rest,” Mann said.Mann said Vitter’s conservative opposition provides “red meat” for his Republican base in Louisiana, crowds out potential challengers for the Republican nomination and, most importantly, keeps his involvement with the D.C. Madam prostitution scandal out of headlines. Political communication professor Regina Lawrence said while such a partisan strategy would be politically “disastrous” in many other parts of the country, Louisiana was one of the few places where the Republican Party made gains in the 2008 elections, so Vitter’s strategy makes sense.”He can win most Republican-leaning voters by running against Obama and the Democratic majority. And who cares — from his perspective — what the other consequences may be?” Lawrence said. Kirby Goidel, director of public policy research for the Manship School of Mass Communication, said Vitter has little to lose by “opposing things that are going to happen anyway,” like Clinton’s confirmation as secretary of state. Vitter also has a formidable election war chest, Goidel said, which leaves potential challengers for the Republican nomination already at a disadvantage, but Vitter still needs to convince “moneyed” potential supporters who are hanging back to see if a stronger conservative leader emerges. “He needs to show his value to the state,” Goidel said. Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, are two frequently mentioned potential challengers for the Republican nomination. Mann said focusing on Obama also benefits Vitter because it keeps questions about his involvement in the D.C. Madam scandal out of the political conversation. “He keeps kicking the can down the road,” Mann said.Whether the scandal will play a major role in 2010 is still unknown, but reports about an effort to draft a pornographic actress and Baton Rouge native, Stormy Daniels, to run against Vitter in the Republican primary have reintroduced Vitter’s past troubles into headlines. The group’s Web site — DraftStormy.com — has a disclaimer stating the site is “not authorized by Stormy Daniels or Wicked Pictures.”The origins of the groups and those behind it are still unknown. “These are challenging times, and Louisiana needs serious leadership. The voters in Louisiana are concerned with issues that affect their everyday lives, not political stunts,” said Republican Party spokesman Aaron Baer in response to the Stormy Daniels movement. Democratic Party spokesman Scott Jordan said the Louisiana Democratic Party has no involvement with the Web site. Mann said the movement is more likely to create a backlash. “It’s not a respectable way to challenge him,” Mann said. Goidel and Mann concluded, though, that Vitter emerged from the scandal remarkably untainted — and both pointed to former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in the wake of a prostitution scandal in March, as an example of what could have happened to Vitter. “He counted on the press not doing its job, and he won that bet,” Mann said. DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S TOUGH ROADNate Silver, polling analyst and owner of the nationally-known FiveThirtyEight.com, ranked Vitter 19th out of 35 on his Senate rankings list, a list ranked in the order of the likelihood the incumbent loses.Silver wrote he’s skeptical of the Democratic Party’s chances of taking Vitter’s seat.”This is also one of those states that is trending away from the Democrats, with Barack Obama having lost badly on Election Day and Mary Landrieu having a somewhat closer call than the polling anticipated. [It is] worth exploratory efforts on the part of the Democrats but, unless they find a compelling candidate somewhere, unlikely to be a top-tier race,” Silver said. Goidel agreed the seat will be tough for Democrats to take in a state where “even Democrats have to show conservative credentials.” But he added that Democrats do have some reasons to be hopeful. Scandals, Goidel said, are the No. 1 reason incumbents lose their seats. He added that a Democrat can win statewide — using Landrieu as an example — and the important issue is finding the right Democrat to run. —-Contact Nate Monroe at [email protected]
Vitter gets vocal, readies base for 2010
February 5, 2009