Illegal immigrants have become a hot topic in the national health debate since Rep. Joe Wilson’s outburst during President Barack Obama’s address to a joint session of Congress last Wednesday. But illegal immigration is a hot button issue in Louisiana for a different reason.Concerns exist about next year’s census, which so far has scrapped a question about citizenship status — leading to the possibility of counting illegal immigrants among citizen residents in states across the country.The United States Constitution mandates a tally of the country’s population every 10 years — federal funding for various programs, electoral votes and congressional seats are appropriated to states based on the count.Many observers and officials have expected Louisiana to lose a congressional seat for years because of inactive population growth in recent census decades, said Karen Paterson, demographer with the Louisiana State Census Data Center. Some are convinced the stagnation wouldn’t lose Louisiana a Congressional seat if the way the census counted residents was changed. In an Aug. 9 editorial in the Wall Street Journal, Elliot Stonecipher, a state demographer, and John Baker, LSU law professor, argue counting illegal immigrants among citizens in the census will disproportionately benefit states with large illegal immigrant populations, like California and Texas, and hurt states without comparably large illegal immigrant populations, like Louisiana. “Under a proper census enumeration that excluded illegal residents, some of the states projected to lose a representative — including our own state of Louisiana — would not do so,” the editorial said. The issue has become politically charged since the editorial’s publication. The Louisiana Republican Party has taken a strong line against the census plans.”If they do not count the illegal aliens, we would not lose a seat,” said Roger Villere, chairman of the Louisiana GOP.Paterson said the census leaves out the citizenship status question because it’s useful to know who lives in what areas, regardless of citizenship status.”If you live in a place, you probably pay taxes, and you use services as well,” she said. “So in terms of infrastructure, it’s useful to know how many people actually live there, who uses the infrastructure.”In addition, she said the census is “supposed to be non-threatening.” If people perceive any level of threat from the census, they’re unlikely to fill out the forms, lowering the overall response rate — something the government has actively tried to combat by setting goals for higher response rates every 10 years. She added a large portion of illegal immigrants are likely to be missed by the census anyway, because their incentives — not getting caught — dictate avoiding it.”There are a lot of reasons why a state may lose a district,” said Troy Blanchard, sociology professor and demographer. “You can’t just point to one thing and say that’s why a state is losing representation.”Blanchard did say the theory has scientific merit and will be “something to pay attention to,” but it’s likely “not the full picture” of why Louisiana will lose a Congressional district. Paterson was reluctant to directly contradict the notion Louisiana may lose a seat because of illegal immigrants, but she pointed to stagnant population growth numbers as proof other factors are affecting Louisiana’s apportionment. Louisiana ranks last in the country in the Census Bureau’s population percent change projections from 2000-2008, losing 1.3 percent.At the end of the day, Paterson said, Louisiana will lose a Congressional seat “because we didn’t grow as fast as other states.”
– – – – Contact Nate Monroe at [email protected]
Louisiana to lose Congressional seat
September 19, 2009