There are pivotal tipping points in which countries must make important decisions — decisions that will drastically affect the their future. This will be one of those situations.
For decades, a growing population of America’s citizens have cried for marijuana to be legalized. Even in the ’60s many thought America was on the verge of legalization, but here were are, all the way in 2010, with cannabis still banned from our home gardens.
I’m not qualified to speak on the moral, ethical or religious implications of legalization. I’ll leave that for the priests, philosophers and politicians. However, I believe we should know a little better exactly what we will, in all probability, be expected to vote on in our lifetimes.
A small introduction is in order. California is in a bit of a pickle. The state is running into some tough financial woes, much like our beloved University.
Estimates of California’s annual marijuana sales total around $14 billion each year. If that were taxed at 10 percent or so, it would bring in around $1.4 billion each year and go a long way toward helping California’s debt situation.
At first glance, many imagine pot-drained zombies running rampant in the streets, taxi cab and bus drivers lighting up a dubbie on the job and general mayhem on scales hitherto unseen.
That’s ridiculous. We don’t worry about people hitting 21 and suddenly being unable to hold a job or keep a relationship (usually), and if someone shows up to work drunk, we don’t harass those politicians that repealed prohibition in the ’30s. We fire the bum for not doing his job. So, we shouldn’t see a huge impact on production if states start to light up — we’ll still be able to get our books, TVs and boundless amounts of junk food without delay.
Consider this, though: You’re a lowly farmer, with massive debt to pay for your equipment and a pay barely above poverty. You can grow fruits and nuts for a modest price — or cannabis. If you grow cannabis, you’re actually growing a double crop. Hemp, one of mankind’s most useful fibers, is made from a different part of the plant than what’s smoked, so you can make a lot of money selling both parts.
Why should you care? California is the sole producer (99 percent or more) of goods like almonds, grapes, raisins, pomegranates and clingstone peaches. If the number of sellers for crops doesn’t increase, and they start to switch over to cannabis in the way classical economics predicts they will, the supply of the other goods decreases, meaning their prices will increase.
Marijuana legalization will affect crop prices, but what about jails? Well, it turns out quite a few inmates are in jail for drug-related offenses. According to the FBI, there were 858,408 arrests for marijuana charges in 2009. When we take into account the massive costs of finding these people, charging them and subsequently paying for their jail time, the costs are literally in the billions of dollars. Billions.
It’s a chaotic time, friends. This November, California will vote on Proposition 19, possibly becoming the first state to legalize what is a massive underground industry. These chaotic times can be tough for established businesses but provide a solid opportunity for start-up businesses, thus creating jobs.
One of the most concerning problems facing modern economics is the inability to really apply the scientific method. We can’t just legalize pot and see what happens any more than we can just tweak the unemployment rate or inflation. But we can expect a few things: the prices of many agricultural goods, especially those exclusively grown in California, will probably rise slightly. Start-up companies will emerge to capture the new market hoping their profits get as high as their customers (which would create new jobs for citizens) and the cost of law enforcement will be redirected to other, more violent crimes.
California’s economy just might have a budding opportunity here — though the state now has two green initiatives to manage.
Devin Graham is a 21-year-old business management senior from Prairieville. Follow him on Twitter @TDR_dgraham.
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Contact Devin Graham at [email protected]