Henry Huber: So, this week will be a solo week for me, as Jared gets a chance to rest on his Bye Week. That gives me the perfect chance to catch up a little bit. It might be different, but I hope you guys enjoy it anyway!
There are a lot of solid matchups this week along with the potential for shake-ups. I’m most interested to see what happens in the Big Ten. Of course, there is the No. 3 Iowa vs. No. 4 Penn State matchup that everyone is keying in on, but there are also a few underrated ones. No. 9 Michigan vs. Nebraska and No. 12 Michigan St. vs. Rutgers are both “prove it” games for two Big Ten teams that could shake things up in the playoff, and I’m excited to see how they perform now that the spotlight is more focused on them. An exciting slate, let’s see what happens!
Henry’s Last Week: 1-4
Henry’s Season: 4-6
So… Last week was rough, huh? This might be harder than I thought it’d be. I’ve got some work to do if I want to make it back to .500 and this week isn’t an easy one by any means. Let’s see if it goes any better this time around.
Georgia vs. Arkansas +17.5 L
Man, we started off rough right off the get-go. I was high on the Razorbacks after their wins against Texas and Texas A&M and I’ll admit that I might’ve jumped the gun in naming them a playoff contender. They certainly have the potential to bounce back but at the same time, their game against Georgia was pretty telling on how they will perform against top competition. They got steamrolled in a game in which they contributed next-to-nothing. Georgia’s defense is more than legitimate and proved last weekend that they should not be overlooked. I’m looking forward to the SEC Championship, to say the least.
Ohio State vs. Rutgers +15 L
Another losing upset pick? Don’t mind if I do. Ohio State has had struggles this season but to believe they might almost lose to Rutgers was a bit preemptive on my part. I emphasized their defense last week and to be fair, they had some games in that regard before this game. But that defense got WALLOPED. They gave up 52 points and 541 yards on their way to an embarrassing defeat. And after having a top-5 turnover ratio to start the season, they went -3 in that regard against the Buckeyes, as Rutgers QB Noah Vedrel struggled against Ohio State’s secondary. Nothing went right for the Scarlet Knights and they’ll have to bounce back quickly because they are facing No. 12 Michigan State this week.
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia -7 L
This isn’t one I’m personally mad about. I feel that based on the information I had going into it, I made the right pick. It just didn’t go the Mountaineers way in a game where they actually played pretty well. What was key in this matchup was the starts, as one team was ready to go at kickoff and the other was not. Texas Tech was up 17-0 at the end of the first half before West Virginia showed up, and the Red Raiders would do just enough to pull it out in the end. Had West Virginia played the first half as they did in the third quarter, they would have handled business and that shows in the stats. The Mountaineers contributed just 109 yards offensively in the first half before they remembered they were playing Texas Tech. Their second half alone almost trumped Tech’s, as they went for 315 (Texas Tech had 346 for the entire game).
Liberty +2 vs. UAB W
Ah yes, Liberty. I knew you wouldn’t let me down. Thanks for preventing me from going 0-5 on the week. Not only did they win, but they also managed to dominate the game behind a stellar performance by their quarterback, Malik Willis. He passed for 287 yards on just 19 throws and contributed 144 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. If Liberty can get some big wins next year, he’ll surely end up in the Heisman race. And the overall stat lines for each team weren’t even close, with Liberty leading in yardage by 219 and tripling UAB’s yards per pass. Great bounce-back win for Hugh Freeze. This is as good as it gets for last week’s games, let’s just take a second to enjoy it.
Okay, on to the final one.
Arizona State vs. UCLA L
Okay, I think I can finally admit that I was wrong and LSU’s loss against UCLA was a bad one. Despite UCLA having an incredibly experienced team that features some solid talent, it doesn’t appear that this is the year that they establish themselves as a PAC-12 frontrunner. After an evenly matched second half that gave a hope that I could finish 2-3, their drives in the second half go as follows:
Punt, Missed Field Goal, Downs, Downs, Downs. That’s it. They contributed zero points in the second half while Arizona State had 18. They put the icing on the cake after a 96-yard touchdown drive that ate up almost half of the fourth quarter and put them up by two scores.
In terms of statistics, they weren’t dominated and that score doesn’t tell the full story, but not being able to capitalize is a huge problem, one that will result in losses like this. Missed field goals, a field goal on 70+ yard drives, and turning the ball over on downs when you’re in a position to make it a one score game with a FIELD GOAL (Like seriously, Coach Kelly?) are all huge reasons why the Bruins lost and lost badly. What are they going to do about it?
Henry’s Picks:
Boise State vs. BYU, Saturday 10/9, 2:30 CT, ABC
The Pick: BYU -6
Boise State has had a rough start and many would argue that this game is their last chance to prove themselves this season. It’s unfortunate that they are going up against a team as efficient as BYU.
Many would look at BYU’s win and see them as ugly. Their best margin of victory was against Utah State (14), a team that Boise State beat by 24. Many would also look at Boise State’s losses and see them as respectable (UCF, Oklahoma State, a solid Nevada). But the key difference here is that BYU has had the ability to win in tough games and Boise State has not. BYU had tough matchups against Arizona State and Utah and came out on top by two scores in both of those contests.
They play solid defense and cause turnovers and their offense is balanced and makes rare mistakes and their running back (Tyler Allgeier) is a stud. They have one of the best turnover margins in the country (9) and all of this has helped them reach the top-10. While I don’t believe they stay there throughout the entire season, this is a matchup they can handle well. Boise State has the ability to keep it close but I see Hank Bachmeier and the Broncos making too many mistakes to take the game.
Score: BYU 34 Boise State 24
Penn State vs. Iowa, Saturday 10/9. 3:00 PM CT, FOX
The Pick: Iowa -1.5
Jared told me I could pick this one as long as I chose Iowa, and as much as I’d love to prove him wrong, this pick checks out. I’m blaming him if it is wrong though.
Both teams have had great seasons and have been rewarded with spots in the top-5. Their defenses are stout, some of the best in the country, and their offenses don’t make too many mistakes. And while their wins have proved less impressive over the weeks with Wisconsin and Indiana not being as good as people expected them to be, they still have a few that can be considered impressive. Iowa defeated Iowa State and crushed Maryland, and Penn State beat an Auburn team that looked alright last week.
Iowa could potentially have the best defense in the Big-10 (I wouldn’t say nation yet because of how good Georgia has been) and after an insane game against Maryland where they caused SEVEN turnovers, they lead the league in turnover margin. They shut down the likes of Brock Purdy and I believe that their defense, along with an efficient offense, gives them the edge over Penn State. I predict that they’ll cause Sean Clifford to make some mistakes and keep him grounded, which would ultimately shut down an offense that has heavily relied on him. I’m excited for this one either way.
Score: Iowa 28 Penn State 23
East Carolina vs. UCF, Saturday 10/9, 5:00 PM CT, ESPN+
The Pick: East Carolina +10
I found this one interesting. UCF’s starting QB, Dillon Gabriel, is out for an extended amount of time and that’s hard for any team to deal with. That showed in their last game, where they lose to a winless Navy team in a game where they couldn’t get much done offensively. I mean, they scored 30 points but it was on an uncharacteristic 326 yards. That’s a pretty big outlier compared to what they had done in previous games (they averaged over 500 yards in their previous games).
East Carolina has a horrible defense but their offense has the ability to make up for it, evident in strong wins against Marshall and Tulane where they scored an average of 47 points on 586.5 yards per contest. Their defense also has the ability to cause turnovers, which should aid them against an inexperienced quarterback in freshman Mikey Keene.
Their freshman running back Keaton Mitchell has also blown up over the past few weeks, rushing for over a hundred yards in each of his last three games on an insane 11.33 yards per carry in that period. I guarantee he’ll be a deciding factor in this one.
Score: East Carolina 41 UCF 38
Michigan vs. Nebraska, Saturday 10/9, 6:30 PM CT, ABC
The Pick: Nebraska +3
There are currently five Big-10 teams in the top-12 and though I see a few of them competing for the playoff until the end of the season, I also see a few of them falling back down to Earth soon. Michigan has impressive aspects, like their defense and run game, but all of their games have come against subpar competition.
Nebraska is stronger than their 3-3 record indicates. Besides their loss against Illinois to begin the season, their two other losses were respectable, coming by just one score against Oklahoma and Michigan State. They’re coming off a 49-point blowout win against Northwestern and now have their chance to prove themselves and finally pull off a big win for Scott Frost. They’ve been impressive and balanced offensively, averaging 504 yards per game with both their passing and rushing yard averages nearing 250 yards. Their defense also has been a pushover this season by any means, giving up 15.5 points per game. It’s crazy that a team can be 3-3 and have an average margin of victory of 17.8.
Score: Nebraska 27 Michigan 24
Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech, 10/9 6:30 PM CT, ACCN
The Pick: Notre Dame (EVEN)
This is the first even split I’ve seen this season and it’s somewhat of a surprising one to me. Don’t get me wrong, Virginia Tech has been adequate this season and their defense is a force, but I also feel like Notre Dame has the edge. They had their struggles against Cincinnati but most teams would and Virginia Tech’s loss to West Virginia and a close win against Richmond qualify as bigger struggles.
The key matchup will be Notre Dame’s passing game versus Virginia Tech’s secondary. Tech has given up just 190 passing yards per game and passing has been Notre Dame’s main source of offense this season, as they have just 82 rushing yards per game. If Tech shuts down Notre Dame’s passing game as Cincinnati did, they could definitely take this one, but whether or not that happens is the question. They also struggle to create turnovers, which is one of the reasons Cincinnati took control against the Fighting Irish.
This is going to be a close one, but I see Notre Dame bouncing back and getting the win.
