Henry Huber: Another solo week for yours truly. Unfortunately, Jared has a lot on his plate at the moment, so I’ll take the reins so that he can deal with that. Thankfully, he isn’t going to miss too much, as this week should not have too many playoff-altering matchups (keywords: should not).
Can we just talk about what happened with Iowa last week for a second? Less than a week before their loss to Purdue, I mentioned in a column how all Iowa had to do to make it all the way was to avoid upsets and win the Big Ten title and what do they do. This season has been crazy, and I don’t expect this week to be a break from the insanity. Keep an eye on Michigan and Ohio State this weekend, that’s all I’m going to say.
Henry’s Last Week: 3-2
Henry’s Season: 10-9-1
Ah yes, back above .500 again. I think we can finally put that second week I had behind us. Let’s see how long I can keep it going.
Oklahoma State +3.5 vs. Texas W
Don’t you just love when the team you’re rooting against blows it? Texas blew two double-digit leads, a 14-point lead in the second and an 11-point lead in the third. They eventually lost all momentum and imploded, as Oklahoma State scored 19 unanswered points to ultimately take this game by eight points. The Longhorns had one drive in the second half go for a touchdown while the rest were three-and-outs (except for the ones where they turned the ball over on downs and threw an interception). It’s insane to think that Texas has been just two unblown leads away from being a legit playoff contender, and now they’re unranked and 4-3 on the season.
Fresno State -3.5 vs. Wyoming W
When I made this pick, I mentioned how it seemed like an incredibly obvious one. It’s safe to say it was, but not for the reasons I was expecting. The Bulldogs dominated defensively, causing Wyoming to turn the ball over five times and ultimately pitching a shutout. While I did cite their defense as being solid, I gave a lot more credit to the offense, and their offense kind of got shut down too. The difference is that Fresno State didn’t turn the ball over once and they managed to score a few times. All 17 of their points came off turnovers, with their longest scoring drive being just 41 yards. Jake Haener had just 96 passing yards and that’s all it took in the end.
The battle for the Mountain West is shaping up to be very interesting, with six teams sporting just two losses or less. I’d suggest keeping an eye on some of those matchups. Fresno State plays a 5-1 Nevada team that has averaged 43.3 points per game since their lone loss to Kansas State a month back.
Ole Miss -2.5 vs. Tennessee W
Wow, I started out this week on fire. And wow, what a game this was. Tennessee, and Hendon Hooker especially, played out of their minds and had a serious chance to take down one of the best teams in the SEC. Unfortunately, a great game was overshadowed by controversy, as Volunteer fans stole the spotlight in one of the worst ways possible. After a call didn’t go the Vols’ way, fans chunked whatever they had on hand onto the field, including golf balls and bottles. Thankfully, no one was hurt, but it’s still disappointing because this game was a great one.
Tennessee was in a position to take the game at the end of the fourth quarter, but an injury to Hooker put their chances in jeopardy. Backup QB Joe Milton III got the Volunteers down to the Ole Miss 8-yard line, but time expired and the Rebels claimed victory. Both starting quarterbacks threw the ball for over 200 yards and ran for over 100 as well, with Matt Corral nearly eclipsing 200 yards in both categories.
The Volunteers are now 4-3 and face Alabama in their next contest. Whatever happens, this season has been a respectable one for them so far.
TCU +13.5 vs. Oklahoma L
So, I missed a crucial detail whilst making this prediction. TCU’s star running back, Zach Evans was sidelined due to injury. TCU’s offense still performed well without him, surpassing 500 total yards and running the ball for just under five yards per carry, but they probably could have made it closer had their dynamic rusher been in the mix.
With that being said, Oklahoma’s Caleb Williams appears to be the real deal, as he played a near-perfect game. He threw the ball for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns on a 78% completion rating, and he also added 66 yards and another touchdown on the ground. TCU is a solid team with a great offense, but they just couldn’t quite keep up with the Sooners. They held Oklahoma to just three punts on the day and that isn’t going to get the job done.
It’s crazy looking at the stats for this one, as TCU actually outpaced Oklahoma in terms of yardage. But multiple drives stalling out in Oklahoma territory kept the game from being closer. The question is, what if they had Zach Evans?
Arizona State EVEN vs. Utah L
I was feeling amazing about this one at halftime. Arizona State had a 21-7 lead going into the break and all of the momentum. However, Utah stole that momentum practically immediately, scoring 28 unanswered points on their way to a convincing victory. Utah scored a touchdown on every possession they had in the second half and obliterated the Sun Devils in terms of time of possession, having the ball for almost two-thirds of the entire second half. They took advantage of a reeling, tired Arizona State defense, a defense who previously hadn’t given up 30 points in a single game.
Henry’s Picks:
Northwestern vs. Michigan, Saturday 10/23, 11:00 AM CT, FOX
The Pick: Michigan -23.5
Northwestern is coming off their best game of the season, defeating Rutgers 21-7 to claim their first Big Ten victory. However, beating Rutgers has proven to be less and less impressive as the Scarlet Knights continue to struggle immensely in conference play.
Two key stats jump off of the page when analyzing these two teams: Michigan’s rushing yards per game and Northwestern’s rushing yards allowed per game. Michigan is No. 6 in rushing yards per game, rushing for nearly 250 yards per game behind their two stud running backs in Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. These backs have combined for over 1100 yards and 16 touchdowns and they should have a field day against Northwestern’s defense, which just so happens to be one of the worst rushing defenses in the country. This coupled with Northwestern’s inability to score gives Michigan more than an edge in this one.
Let’s just hope that Harbaugh doesn’t somehow find a way to blow this one.
Score: Michigan 38 Northwestern 13
Wake Forest vs. Army, Saturday 10/23, 11:00 AM CT, FOX
The Pick: Wake Forest -3
This is a very tough one. Each team has stars possibly returning to their lineups, with Army’s QB Christian Anderson expected to start and Wake’s DB Nasir Greer being a game-time decision. Army hasn’t lost a game with Anderson at the helm and he leads the team in both rushing and passing yards. And Wake’s defense could use Greer back, as they have given up 37 and 40 in their last two games.
This game is especially interesting because Wake Forest will be facing the best defense they’ve faced all season and Army will be facing the best offense they’ve faced all season. This makes the outcome hard to predict, but I expect two things to be the deciding factors. For one, Wake Forest is coming back from a bye and is well-rested, whereas Army is coming off two tough losses. The Demon Deacons have prepared extensively for Army’s scheme, and I expect them to have a great game because of it. The other factor is turnovers. Wake Forest has done an incredible job of not making mistakes this season, holding the No. 2 spot in turnover differential per game with +1.6. Army is positive in turnover differential, but not by much, and their strength of schedule leaves me wondering if that means much.
I still expect it to be a hard-fought game, but I predict Wake Forest to come out firing, ultimately winning by two scores.
Score: Wake Forest 28 Army 17
Wisconsin vs. Purdue, Saturday 10/23, 2:00 PM CT, BTN
The Pick: Purdue +3.5
Purdue is an interesting case. After losing to Minnesota three weeks ago, they came off of their bye and beat the No. 2 team in the country, holding them to just 7 points and causing Iowa to commit four turnovers. They sport a defense that has allowed just 14 points per game and they are playing against one of the worst offenses in the country. It’s a match made in heaven.
Both offenses have been unimpressive on the year, with Wisconsin scoring less than 20 points per game and Purdue’s scoring less than 24. Wisconsin has the edge in terms of yards given up per game, but it’s not enough of an edge for them to obtain victory today, and that’s because of one key stat that I mentioned earlier. Wisconsin has one of the worst turnover ratios in the country, with a ratio of almost -2 per game. And as I said before, Purdue is coming off of a game in which they forced Iowa, the team with the best turnover ratio in the country, to commit four turnovers. The biggest contributor to Wisconsin’s demise has been their inability to hold on to the ball, and I see that being the difference once again today.
I see this game being a low-scoring fight to the finish, with Purdue just barely making it in the end to earn their third Big Ten win of the season.
Score: Purdue 17 Wisconsin 13
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State, Saturday 10/23, 2:30 PM CT, FOX
The Pick: Oklahoma State +7
I wonder if the Cowboys will come through for me again like they did last weekend. Normally, I wouldn’t pick a game involving a team I picked last weekend, but this one was too interesting to leave unpicked. Iowa State got off to a rocky start this season and though they have looked better in more recent weeks, those weeks featured Kansas State and Kansas as their opponents. Now, Iowa State could definitely pull this game off, but it’s hard to say if they have actually improved throughout the season and I doubt they win by more than a touchdown.
If the LSU game gets bad, this is one you should consider switching to. Each team sports amazing running backs in Jaylen Warren (Oklahoma State) and Breece Hall (Iowa State) facing off against great defenses that have given up less than 100 rushing yards per game. Iowa State has the edge statistically but their stats are skewed by their games against Kansas and UNLV, whereas Oklahoma State’s last four games have come against opponents spanning from above average to strong. This game will be a battle, similar to Iowa State vs. Baylor, only this time Iowa State will prevail.
Score: Iowa State 34 Oklahoma State 31
San Diego State vs. Air Force, Saturday 10/23, 6:00 PM CT, CBSSN
The Pick: San Diego State +3
This might be the hardest pick I’ve ever had to make. Each team has had very strange games, like Air Force’s shootout loss versus Utah State, in which each team totaled 600+ yards in regulation, or San Diego State’s double and triple overtimes games, the latter of which saw each team scored just six points in regulation. Each team has a one-dimensional offense, with Air Force running the triple option incredibly effectively, leading the country in rushing yards by a large margin, and San Diego State’s quarterbacks being sickeningly bad. They’ve shuffled quarterbacks throughout the season, with Lucas Johnson being named the starter against Air Force. Their previous starter had a completion percentage of 47.6% and had a game against New Mexico State (a bad team) in which he completed just 6 of 19 passes.
While Air Force leads the country in rushing yards per game, San Diego State counters that perfectly with the best rushing defense in the country. They’re giving up just 61.2 rushing yards per game, and that could cause a lot of problems for the Falcons. I see this game being a low-scoring one, with San Diego State just barely taking it. I can absolutely see this one going to overtime too.
This is a battle for the top of the Mountain West, and I suspect it’s going to be a good one.
