Every winter, college football fans fix their gazes on recruiting boards as National Signing Day commences.
Fans cheer and jeer as two, three, four and five-star recruits decide where they will spend the next four-plus years of school.
But if history at LSU is any indication, putting stock in a star system isn’t always a sure bet.
The 2004 LSU class included Scout.com five-star defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, the fifth overall pick by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2008 NFL Draft. Dorsey won the Lombardi, Outland, Nagurski and Lott Trophies.
The 2004 class also included Scout two-star linebacker Harry Coleman, two-star lineman Tyson Jackson, three-star running back Jacob Hester and three-star linebacker Quinn Johnson.
Jackson bested Dorsey as the No. 3 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, also going to the Chiefs, after tallying 18.5 sacks as a Tiger.
Hester went to the San Diego Chargers in the third round of the 2008 Draft and Johnson, who converted to fullback at LSU, received a Super Bowl ring with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
“That probably speaks to the quality of talent Louisiana has,” said Shea Dixon, managing editor of TigerSportsDigest.com. “Not only are they putting out the four and five stars, but they’re also putting out guys like Tyson and the great three-stars.”
Meanwhile, consensus five-star wide receiver Xavier Carter focused primarily on track, finishing his LSU football career with fewer than 10 catches.
The next season’s draft included another future track star who wasn’t projected to do as well as Carter. Two-star Scout recruit Trindon Holliday, a Zachary native, finished his career No. 2 in school history in kickoff return yards.
“A lot of it has to do with living in Louisiana and playing a bit under the radar and not having that national exposure that maybe some Florida or California kids would have,” Dixon said.
The 2005 recruiting class also included Rivals.com three-star recruit Brandon LaFell, who finished his LSU career No. 3 in receptions (175) and No. 2 in receiving touchdowns (25).
Other LSU five-star players never quite lived up to their reputations. Five-star lineman Al Woods and five-star defensive back Jai Eugene signed in 2006. Woods started 16 games and had 73 tackles, while Eugene started 12 games with one interception.
Five-star wide receiver Terrence Toliver recorded only 126 receptions in his LSU career, although he capped it off with a three-touchdown performance in the Cotton Bowl.
Conversely, First-Team All-Southeastern Conference linebacker Kelvin Sheppard and 2008 Butkus Award Finalist Perry Riley were only three-star recruits.
That’s not to say all three- or four-star recruits will outperform their five-star counterparts.
The 2007 class included five-star safety Chad Jones, who led LSU in interceptions in 2009, and five-star lineman Joseph Barksdale, who started the final 39 games of his career.
“Those five-star guys were part of a team that won a national championship,” said Derek Ponamsky, recruiting analyst for BayouBengalsInsider.com. “That’s a high level of production.”
In 2008, LSU grabbed another successful five-star recruit in Bednarik and Thorpe Award-winner Patrick Peterson.
The 2007 draft class included Scout two-star kicker Josh Jasper, the only consensus All-America placekicker in school history, and the 2008 class included three-star starting offensive linemen Alex Hurst and P.J. Lonergan.
The trend continued in 2009. Five-star defensive lineman Chris Davenport has not started a single game, while three-star cornerback Morris Claiborne led LSU in interceptions in 2010.
“Claiborne, coming out being a 175-pound high school quarterback, has now bulked up to be an SEC cornerback and a successful one at that,” Dixon said.
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