Chris Gibson takes a look at several scenarios for the SEC Western and Eastern Division Championship races and the possibility of a bowl for each team.
Eastern Division
1) Georgia (4-1 in SEC) – The Bulldogs have a great shot at the Eastern Division with a one-game lead over Florida and Tennessee. The Bulldogs hold the tiebreaker with wins over Tennessee and South Carolina and will play Florida next weekend after beating up on the University of Alabama-Birmingham this weekend. The remaining conference schedule includes home games against Auburn and Kentucky.
Bowl Possibility: One more win and they’re in.
2) Florida (3-2) – The Gators have rebounded and knocked off two Top 15 teams in consecutive weeks. For the Gators to have any chance of winning the SEC East, the fighting Zooks will have to beat Georgia in Jacksonville, Fla. and then beat South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
Bowl Possibility: Two wins in the final four games would probably seal an invite.
3) Tennessee (2-2) – Tennessee must hope for a Georgia collapse so the Volunteers can be tied with Florida. In that case, the Vols would win the tiebreaker by reference to its win over Florida in September. The Tennessee schedule is weak the rest of the way: at Bama, home against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt and at Kentucky. If the Vols can get some help, anything is possible.
Bowl Possibility: Pretty good … Must have three wins to finish with a winning record.
4) South Carolina (1-3), Kentucky (0-3) and Vanderbilt (0-4) all face very difficult and uphill roads.
Bowl Possibilities: South Carolina has the best prospects out of the three. The Gamecocks must get three wins to have a winning record. Kentucky’s schedule (Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee, among others) will serve as a huge road block. It is mathematically impossible for Vanderbilt to make a bowl. Even if the Commodores win out, they will still be 5-7 overall.
Western Division
1) Auburn (4-0) – The Tigers, War Eagles, Plainsmen (whatever you want to call them) are playing at the level many suggested they would before the season. Auburn has a great shot of wrapping up the West within the next three weeks by facing LSU in intimidating Death Valley this weekend and Ole Miss at home on Nov. 8. Auburn also faces the University of Louisiana-Monroe and Alabama at home and SEC East foe Georgia on the road.
Bowl Possibility: Virtually a lock considering a win over ULM and a conference competitor will give them seven wins.
2) Ole Miss (3-0) – Ole Miss on top of the SEC West? It is not an uncommon thing in September and October, but as the competition bears down in late October and November, Ole Miss fades on a yearly basis. Ole Miss controls its own destiny with home tilts against Arkansas and LSU with a home contest against South Carolina and a road game at Auburn sandwiched in the middle. Don’t forget the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving against Mississippi State.
Bowl Possibility: Great shot at a bowl for the Rebels. Two more wins will probably seal the deal.
3) LSU (3-1) – The Tigers are in the thick of the West race. LSU controls its own destiny. Win out and they’ll be in Atlanta. First things first, LSU needs to control the line of scrimmage and hold home field against Auburn on Saturday. The schedule is very favorable with Auburn and Arkansas at home and Alabama and Ole Miss on the road.
Bowl Possibility: One more win makes the Tigers bowl eligible for all intents and purposes.
4) Arkansas (1-2) – The last two weeks have not treated the Hogs very well. ESPN Personality Kirk Herbstreit said only a couple of weeks ago that the Hogs were his pick to be in Atlanta for the SEC Championship game. It is still possible, but the Hogs would have to win out and hope Auburn loses three times unless it can get into a three or four-way tie. Must beat Ole Miss this weekend to have any shot.
Bowl Possibility: With a 4-2 overall record, Arkansas should have a nice shot at a bowl. The remaining schedule (not including Ole Miss or LSU) is rather easy: at Kentucky, home vs. South Carolina, New Mexico State and Mississippi State.
5) Mississippi State (1-2) and Alabama (1-3): Bama is ineligible for the conference title and is thus ineligible for the Western Division title, per NCAA rules. State has gotten off to a tough start and its coach Jackie Sherrill recently announced he will step down at season’s end.
Bowl Possibilities: Bama is ineligible for a bowl, but could play spoiler against the teams it does play. State is 2-5 overall and must, in all likelihood, win out to get to a bowl.