Even as my column went to the presses last week the landscape of Spanish, and by extension, European politics was about to change dramatically.
The people of Spain, who had just suffered one of the worst terrorist attacks in European history, ousted the Populist Party of outgoing Prime Minister José Aznar for the Socialist Workers Party of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.
Normally I would not be thrilled with a Socialist in office,
giving my libertarian leanings (and make no mistake, were in not for the result of Aznar’s reckless foreign policy, the Popular Party would still be in office), but it is nice to see, every now and then, a man who sold his national interests down the drain get his dues.
This election, shocking to so many analysts, has created a new
wrinkle in European politics.
For one it leaves British Prime Minister Tony Blair almost completely isolated in western Europe, with only Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in Italy to help them hold the American line.
The likelihood of Blair falling to rebels in his own party only increases as time goes on — if not simply because Blair has led his party for the better part of a decade. If Blair were to fall, the United States would find itself almost completely isolated in Europe, relying on the newer states in eastern Europe, as well as the shaky center-right government in Italy for support.
Needless to say, our war effort, which has now exceeded a year (and 579 dead), has lost us more than simply the lives of our soldiers.
It has driven us away from our traditional allies in Europe.
Right now we’re seeing what appears to be one of the great
geopolitical realignments of the past hundred years.
With the threat of intra-European conflict steadily abating, we have seen the rise of a sort of European unionism over the past fifty odd years. Led in large part by the French and the Germans, the former seeking to retain their rank as a world power in the post-colonial, post-de Gaulle world, and the latter seeking to regain their position as the premier continental power, the idea of unionism has spread from Portugal to Poland.
Why, you may ask, would so many European nations be willing to give up total control of their borders, currency, and foreign policy when so many of them suffered under the yoke of either foreign Fascist or Communist dictatorship last century?
It seems to me that many of these Europeans prefer what they see as the economic and security benefits of belonging to the union to the possible risk of losing their rights if another dictator emerges to lead a united Europe.
With a population before the expansion into the old Soviet bloc of 379.6 million, the European Union now has the economic muscle and the people to establish themselves as another superpower.
It seems to me that we are not at the beginning of another so-called “American Century,” but are heading towards another era of competition among states.
In our case, we face not only the possibility of a unified Europe with a strong single currency, but also a surging China, with a population three times our own and a manufacturing base which has disappeared from this country.
We also should, in no way, discount Russia.
It is even possible that Putin will manage to work a minor miracle and get the nation back on its feet.
Our foreign policy has pushed one of our old allies into the hands of the Franco-German alliance.
For the future of both our alliances with states like Italy and Britain I hope that the president chooses to tread a safer course, otherwise we might find ourselves very lonely when we most need help.