Most basketball coaches agree a team should convert on at least 70 percent of its free throws.
Standing only 13 feet 9 inches from the goal without anyone defending them, most players still can’t make free throws on a consistent basis. But does this basic part of the game really matter much?
The LSU men’s basketball team can’t make a free throw to save its life this season. The Tigers (16-4, 6-3 Southeastern Conference) are shooting a dismal 64.6 percent from the charity stripe but still have the ability to win games.
The Tigers have only four games in which they shot 70 percent or better on free-throw attempts and are 4-0 in those contests. The Tigers would have won all but one of those games if they had shot their average for the season. The outlier was a 60-54 win at Alabama on Jan. 31, in which the Tigers connected on 24-of-26 attempts for 92.3 percent in the game. The Crimson Tide would have won 54-50 if LSU would have shot its usual free-throw percentage.
On the other end of the spectrum, LSU coach John Brady’s crew has connected on less than 60 percent of its freebies six times this season. The Tigers’ record in those games is 5-1 with wins against Utah and in Saturday’s win against Arkansas. The lone loss in this category came against Mississippi State. The Tigers were 5-of-18 on free throws in the 64-54 loss to the Bulldogs, but the Tigers would have still lost 64-61 had they hit 70 percent from the charity stripe.
In each of LSU’s four losses this season, a 70 percent free-throw percentage wouldn’t have helped the LSU win. Free throws may be part of the reason the team didn’t win those games, but it’s not the only solution.
The one statistic that is true in three of the four losses this season is a poor field goal percentage. In losses to Houston, Ole Miss and South Carolina, the Tigers shot less than 40 percent from the field. There are two exceptions in this equation — the Mississippi State and Alabama games.
LSU shot 45.8 percent in its loss to MSU, but the Bulldogs were superior to LSU that day.
In contrast, the Tigers shot 32.7 percent at Alabama and won because of a superhuman performance at the free-throw line. If we applied the 70 percent free-throw rule from this case, the Tigers would have lost because of field goal percentage.
However, the Tigers would have beaten both Ole Miss and Houston if they had shot their season average of 46 percent from the field. LSU would have at the very least tied South Carolina during regulation, assuming that every shot made was a 2-pointer.
A combination of better free throw and field goal percentage would propel the Tigers to victory in almost any game, but the key phrase is field goal percentage.
LSU’s postseason hopes will depend on its ability to get good looks and hit shots from the field, not the free-throw line.