The College Football Playoff expansion will totally shake up what it takes to be a national championship contender late season and the landscape as a whole.
Here’s what that means for LSU.
Less than two years ago, it was decided that the CFP playoff picture would expand from four to 12 teams. The structure involves four rounds with the top four teams receiving a bye. There’s no reseeding, and the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played on neutral fields.
Prior seasons made the old playoff structure look plainly stubborn and outdated. Just last year, an undefeated Florida State team missed a bid. Now, especially with the growth of the Big Ten Conference and Southeastern Conference, talented teams won’t be boxed out of the overly exclusionary group.
This buys teams like LSU more leeway in the regular season. Such a change comes at a very opportune time for a Tigers team that has undergone significant change in the offseason.
Looking at 2014 through 2023, while excluding 2020 as an outlier, we can see what kind of record LSU will need to earn a top 12 seed this December. It should be noted that this precedent is measured with different criteria.
Within those nine seasons, 12 teams lost three games and still cracked top 12 in the end of regular season AP poll. Multiple Power Five teams also missed the top 12 mark with a 10-2 record within this stretch.
Because of the expansion of college football’s two major conferences, it is very unlikely a 10-win team would miss the new playoff and more likely a three-loss team could make it.
With the consideration of LSU’s favorable schedule in mind, the Tigers will need a significant win and their hardest opponents to end as high seeds if they want to make it with three losses.
When looking at the schedule game by game, the Tigers are fairly well positioned to reach 10 wins.
Three of their hardest games come at home against Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma. They play USC in Las Vegas week one for what will be a season-defining game. Their hardest road game will likely be against Texas A&M on Oct. 26, a team that has a history of causing LSU problems.
Not only does LSU have home field advantage against its two hardest opponents, it also has bye weeks. The fourteen days that lead up to its matchup with Ole Miss in October and Alabama in November can give players extra time to heal up, as well as allowing the coaching staff to devise a mature gameplan.
This season will tell LSU fans everything they need to know about Brian Kelly as a coach. Nussmeier will show what Kelly can do with a talented quarterback years in training for the starting position.
It will tell if he as a coach is prepared to take down forces like Ole Miss and Alabama with home field and two weeks of preparation on his side. Equally relevant is if he can avoid random losses to teams like Texas A&M, a flaw you don’t see in dominant programs like Georgia and Ohio State.
Should those go well, Tiger nation can see how their coaching staff fares in postseason play for the first time in their Baton Rouge tenure.
The new playoff format has other affects on the college football landscape as well. Player health is one of them.
Previously a championship team would only play 15 games in their full season, but now that number can be as high as 17. While two games may not seem like much of a difference, most players would disagree. This will place a higher value on team depth.
Last year the gap between conference championships and playoffs was 31 days. This year, it will be 25 if the team has a first-round bye and 21 if a team makes the playoffs but not the conference championship. Teams that lose their conference championships will have about 14 days of rest.
While this does mean less time for game planning, many players seem to prefer avoiding an awkward month-long gap of no meaningful football.
Somewhat presciently, last year’s Seminoles personified two issues that are avoided by this expansion system.
One, a talented and undefeated Florida State team missed a bid to the four-team playoff, likely in part because of injury to their starting quarterback. A 12-team bracket would avoid that.
In their bowl game against Georgia, they were trounced. Importantly, much of that was due to the over 20 players who did not play in the game. It’s a matchup that would’ve garnered high anticipation had stakes been in place to incentivize participation.
The four-round brackets will also help avoid uneven matchups at the largest stage. As much as anyone enjoys a Cinderella run, blowouts don’t make for good television. TCU, we’re looking at you. Three heavyweight matchups before the national championship should weed that out effectively.
Ultimately, the playoff expansion appears to be fundamentally good not only for the sport, but also for the Tigers.
The expanded format grants LSU just a bit more leeway in a season of significant change and an honest-to-God shot at a ring.