Upsets are necessary in March Madness. They keep things interesting through the early rounds, with no team safe from being knocked out before they show what they can do.
Every year, it’s common in March Madness to focus heavily on the lower seeds of the tournament, trying to predict which team will be the one to shock the world. Here today, my coworker Jared Brodtmann and I have gathered our best guesses for which lower seeds could pull off the highly improbable.
Chattanooga (13-seed)
Chattanooga bears few weaknesses, coming into the tournament as one of the most balanced potential-upset teams in the entire bracket. They might not have standout offensive statistics like some of the other upset teams, but they’re in or around the top-50 in offensive efficiency, effective possession ratio, free-throw percentage, turnovers and three-point defense. Most of their remaining statistics, such as defensive efficiency, true shooting percentage and offensive rebounding, are also above average.
Their nonconference schedule was pretty much devoid of competition, but in their tougher matchups, they’ve shown great signs. They have a Quad-1 victory against VCU and defeated one of the best teams in Conference USA in Middle Tennessee, along with suffering close losses to Belmont and Murray State. They hold a solid 70% winning rate in close games, which includes an incredible victory in the conference championship against Furman, in which Chattanooga guard David Jean-Baptiste hit one of the most impressive shots of the season.
Sounds like a scary March Madness team to me.
Vermont (13-seed)
I mentioned standout offensive statistics earlier when describing Chattanooga compared to other upset teams, and this is one of the teams I’m talking about. They are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country, ranking No. 3 in True Shooting Percentage and Effective Field Goal Percentage, and they hold similar positions in two-point field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive efficiency and assist-to-turnover ratio.
While similar praises can be made about another 13-seed in South Dakota State, what I believe separates Vermont from them is their effectiveness on defense. They are top-20 in defensive efficiency, which makes them one of the only teams in the entire tournament to rank in the top-25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they also rank in the top-20 in defensive rebounding. Statistically, this might be one of the most impressive teams in the entire tournament.
They completely dominated the conference, concluding the season with a 39-point victory in their conference championship game. They also hold 20-point victories over UMBC, Stony Brook and New Hampshire, the three best teams in the conference excluding them. The only drawback with that fact is that Vermont’s conference, the American East, is subpar at best and Vermont didn’t have any impressive victories in nonconference play. They did suffer eleven and ten-point losses to Maryland and Providence though, along with holding victories over Colgate and Northern Iowa. So, this team can certainly hang with better competition.
Longwood (14, South)
I figured I should talk about at least one stretch pick, as 14 and 15 seeds have surprised us time and time again over the past decade of March Madness. Of those teams this season, I believe Longwood and 14-seeded Colgate are the best chances to pull off the near-impossible.
Longwood has lost one time since the start of 2022 and though that’s largely due to them being in an easy conference, it’s still impressive. What’s more impressive is how good Longwood has been at finishing close games, as of the 16 close games they’ve played this season, they’ve won 14 of them. Being composed and consistent down the stretch is a key component to a successful run in the tournament and in this case, shock the world. This team had its struggles throughout their conference tournament, going to overtime in the quarterfinals and being down at halftime in the semis, but those were perfect opportunities for Longwood to show what they are capable of under pressure, and they did. They then finished off the run with their most impressive win of the season, with a controlling, 21-point victory over Winthrop. Always a good sign when a team concludes their season with momentum heading into the tournament.
They are effective from and against the three and do a solid job of taking care of the ball while causing turnovers on defense. There is a drawback to picking this team though and its why they’re a 14-seed despite their record. They have very limited experience against Quad-1, suffering a 33-point loss Iowa and closer losses to Old Dominion and Georgetown. This team may not have much experience against Quad-1 competition, but that doesn’t always matter in March.
South Dakota State (13, Midwest)
The Jackrabbits can score it. This is a flat out good offensive team. They lead the NCAA in 3P% (44.9%), true shooting percentage (63.1%), and offensive rating (120.2). For further reference, Gonzaga, the number one overall team in the tournament, is second in TS% and ORTG. The Jackrabbits have three scorers in double figures, including Guard Noah Freidel and Forward Douglas Wilson, but the name to watch is Guard Baylor Scheierman. He’s shooting a ridiculous 47.3% from three-point range on 169 attempts.
That offense is going to give Providence a run for its money. A middle of the pack defense, the Friars had an impressive Big East campaign that netted them the one seed in the famed Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden, via an 11-2 record in games decided by five points or less. When they reached New York, however, they were promptly beaten by Creighton in the semifinals. Providence will have to rebound well, because giving South Dakota State multiple possessions at the clip they are shooting just isn’t a viable way to win against them. Second chance points or not, this is going to be one of the most fun games of the first round. And if the Jackrabbits can find their stroke in their first game, who’s to say they can’t keep it up?
UAB (12, South)
Two words. Jelly Walker.
Okay, maybe more than two words. UAB sure deserves it. The Blazers are, after all, the highest-ranked KenPom 12-seed this year at 46 and boast a top-30 offensive rating. They took care of good Conference USA teams in Middle Tennessee State in a fantastic triple-overtime thriller and Louisiana Tech in the championship, who did the Blazers a favor and took care of Conference USA favorite North Texas. The Blazers have been competitive against good teams this year, taking South Carolina and 10 seeded San Francisco down to the wire.
They’re led by Jordan “Jelly” Walker at point guard, who is averaging 20.4 PPG, but have three other scorers in double digits in Quan Jackson, Michael Ertel and KJ Buffen. UAB is also boasting a phenomenal defensive and rebounding squad, ranking tenth in STL% and 28th in OREB%. This is easily the best 12-or-below team in the tournament and are sure to be a trendy pick for bracketologists looking for a good upset.
The problem is, they’ve got just about the worst draw possible in the first round in a tank of a Houston team. The Cougars are one of the steadiest, most disciplined teams in the country, and they play fantastic defense. Kelvin Sampson has his team coming off a Final Four appearance last year, and while they lost talent, Houston is one of the scariest teams in the South region. Pick UAB if you like, but be wary of the Blazers’ opponent.
