My theory about why Republicans would win in a landslide this midterms was completely and utterly wrong.

Americans turned out this midterms for a divided government. What was supposed to be a red wave turned out to be a red trickle. 

So, what happened?

Abortion was a substantially bigger issue than initial polling would’ve had it seem. In exit polling data from CNN for the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, abortion ranked higher than inflation, with 37% of voters choosing it as their top issue. In the red state of Florida, abortion ranked second at 28%.

The importance of this number is further exemplified by the fact that unmarried women voted heavily in favor of the Democrats, favoring them by 37 percentage points, according to CNN. This energized the Democratic base and prevented a landslide loss.

Inflation remained atop the list of worries and, without it, Democrats may have kept the House. So, why did voters not turn out in droves to support the Republicans?

The answer seems painfully clear: former President Donald Trump. 

Trump’s picks were a drag on the party. Lauren Boebert, a conservative firebrand, is headed to a likely recount against her opponent Adam Frisch in Colorado’s 3rd congressional district, which has voted Republican by a margin of 9 percentage points in the last three races. Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz lost to John Fetterman by more than four percentage points in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. In the last election, the seat went by one percentage point to the Republican Pat Toomey.

This general trend seems to follow that Republicans—or Trump—chose poor candidates for races that could’ve otherwise been winnable.

Historically, midterms tend to be terrible for the incumbent president’s party. Since 1934, the average for the incumbent president is a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats, according to The American Presidency Project.

So, the question remains, with so many bad Republican candidates, why didn’t Democrats pick up seats?

Polling data from Third Way, a left-of-center think tank, showed that voters perceived both parties to be extreme, with 55% saying Republicans are too extreme and 54% saying Democrats are too extreme.

We know why Republicans are seen as extreme with abortion and election denialism, but why Democrats? The answer seems to be value misalignment, which stems from radicalism on social issues.

Democrat’s push for bail reform and anti-police rhetoric over the past two years, combined with recent upticks in murders, has weighed heavily on voters. Data from Third Way showed voters trusting Republicans by a 20-percentage-point advantage compared to Democrats on handling crime.

Data also showed Republicans with a 20-percentage-point advantage on handling the issue of immigration. Both immigration and crime polled as the top ten issues for voters. On inflation, which was ranked as the number one issue, voters trusted Republicans to handle it better by an 18-percentage-point margin.

So, what can our politicians do better?

For Republicans, the model is clear. Reject Trump at all costs. Not only are his favorability ratings and his picks for candidates abysmal, but he’s also perceived by a large percentage of the country as self-obsessed and, to some, plain crazy.

Republicans would also be wise to heed caution with the issue of abortion. They should allow abortion until at least the end of the first trimester and should allow rape and incest exceptions—a stance held by the majority of Americans.

Another thing: They should be more like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis is widely perceived to be a contender for president in 2024 and rightfully so. He’s seen success in governing his state and soared to re-election, beating his opponent Charlie Crist by nearly 20 percentage points. In the prior governor’s election, he won the state by less than one percentage point. He also swung Miami Dade, a historically Democrat county. DeSantis is a model of responsible Republican governance without the election denialism craziness.

How about Democrats?

Unlike what Biden has suggested, which is that he won’t change a thing, Democrats could change a few things. The average voter sees them as out of touch with their values, significantly less patriotic than Republicans and as social radicals.

This is perfectly represented by former U.S. congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard announcing that she is leaving the Democratic party because she believes it’s run by “an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness.” If Democrats don’t similarly leave behind their radical social values, embrace law and order and get a hold on immigration, they may soon see themselves going down in flaming defeat in 2024.

Overall, the message is clear to both Democrats and Republicans. Stop being so crazy. Move towards the center. The first party to do this will win the next election in a landslide.  

Brandon Poulter is a 27-year-old political science and psychology major.