For five days in Nashville, Tennessee, anything can happen.
This year’s SEC Tournament has the potential to be one of the most contentious in league history, with the bottom and middle of the SEC having made great strides this year to go along with a talented upper class.
LSU’s 5-2 finish to the season earned it a 9-9 conference record and the eighth spot in the conference standings.
The SEC Tournament now looms, and the battle for bragging rights in perhaps the nation’s most competitive conference begins on Wednesday for the conference’s bottom four teams, with LSU suiting up the next day.
For LSU, the SEC Tournament is an opportunity to make one last statement in a year that has been an unequivocal step in the right direction for the program.
The Tigers have shown they can hang with some of the SEC’s best in recent weeks, but there are few more grueling challenges than the SEC Tournament with no breaks in between games.
The SEC Tournament holds implications for LSU going forward for further postseason play, with a potential National Invitation Tournament bid in the balance and even, however unlikely, a coveted trip to the NCAA Tournament.
What does LSU’s potential SEC tournament path look like?
LSU would need to win four games in four days in order to win the SEC Tournament.
That quest begins on Thursday with a noon matchup with Mississippi State, the SEC’s No. 9 team in the standings, who is 19-12 on the year with an 8-10 SEC record. The game will be televised on SEC Network.
If LSU wins that matchup, it will then face top-seeded Tennessee on Friday at noon on ESPN. Tennessee has the conference player of the year in Dalton Knecht and will most likely be a top-two seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The semifinals would then follow on Saturday, with the finals on Sunday. Both games will take place at noon on ESPN.
What does Mississippi State bring as an opponent?
LSU fans won’t look back fondly on the first matchup between these two teams. A little over two weeks ago, Mississippi State came into Baton Rouge and flattened LSU by a score of 87-67.
The Tigers kept close for the first 17 minutes of the game, but a poor close to the half opened the floodgates. Mississippi State held a seven-point lead at halftime and never looked back.
Mississippi State’s defense is one of the toughest in the nation at the point of attack. Its guards put pressure on ball handlers and force bad decisions and poor shots. It also does a great job of attacking passing lanes.
In the first matchup, Mississippi State forced 15 turnovers and held LSU to 17.6% from 3-point range. According to KenPom, Mississippi State has the 25th most efficient defense in the nation.
The Bulldogs are led by guard Josh Hubbard and forward Tolu Smith III, who each gave LSU trouble the first time around. They average 16.8 and 16.3 points per game, respectively.
Hubbard went off for 32 points and six 3-pointers in the first matchup. The diminutive freshman is one of the top 3-point marksmen in the country, and LSU will have to do a better job accounting for him this time around.
Smith, recently honored with his second straight first team All-SEC selection, is a tough matchup for anyone. His combination of size and speed makes for a dangerous threat in transition if he finds a favorable matchup or gets a step on the defense.
He had 19 points and nine rebounds, including four on the offensive glass, in the first go-around between these two teams. As a team, Mississippi State had 16 costly offensive rebounds for 27 second-chance points.
Given the beatdown Mississippi State handed out the first time around, there are few less favorable matchups LSU could’ve drawn here. The Tigers will have more time to draw up a gameplan this time around, but it will take a complete effort to topple the talented Bulldogs.
What’s at stake?
As far as the NCAA Tournament goes, LSU’s only realistic chance of making the field would be to steal the conference’s automatic bid by running the table and winning the SEC Tournament.
When it comes to a potential NIT bid, things get more complicated.
With new rules that were announced this offseason, in order to secure an automatic invitation to the NIT, LSU must finish as one of the SEC’s top two non-NCAA tournament teams in the NET rankings.
Along with an automatic bid comes a chance to host a game on campus in the NIT’s first round.
The NIT would undoubtedly be a valuable experience in a competitive postseason environment for a young LSU team. Jordan Wright, Carlos Stewart and Derek Fountain have each competed in the NIT before they came to LSU, with Fountain’s Mississippi State team making a run to the tournament finals.
A strong performance in the SEC Tournament could influence LSU’s NET ranking and help move the needle toward the automatic NIT bid, but the Tigers will also need some help.
As it stands, LSU is No. 92 in the NET rankings. Fellow SEC bubble teams Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Ole Miss are No. 42, 46 and 90, respectively.
In order for LSU to automatically make the NIT field, it needs at least one of these two things to happen:
1.) for Mississippi State and Texas A&M to both make the NCAA tournament, leaving LSU as a top-two remaining SEC team.
2.) For one of Mississippi State and Texas A&M to make the NCAA Tournament and for Ole Miss to fall below LSU in the NET rankings.
As it stands, Mississippi State figures to be in the NCAA Tournament, currently projected as an 11-seed by ESPN’s Bracketology. However, the Bulldogs are still in a precarious position, needing a solid tournament performance to secure their spot.
Complicating things is that LSU faces Mississippi State in the second round of the SEC Tournament. While LSU of course hopes to win that matchup, doing so could potentially knock Mississippi State out of the NCAA Tournament field and put LSU’s NIT bid in jeopardy.
Texas A&M is currently on the outside of the NCAA Tournament as one of the first four out, according to Bracketology. It could secure a spot if it has a strong showing in the SEC tournament, with matchups against Ole Miss and potentially Kentucky on deck.
Ole Miss faces A&M in its opening tournament matchup. The two teams also went head-to-head in the regular season finale, where the Rebels lost by 26 at home. If Thursday’s match produces a repeat of that and LSU puts up a fight or wins against Mississippi State, the Tigers will likely jump Ole Miss in the NET rankings.
LSU could still make the NIT even if it doesn’t finish as one of the SEC’s top-two non-tournament teams. However, an at-large invitation is far from guaranteed, and the Tigers may still need to boost their odds with a statement in the SEC tournament.
There are a lot of moving parts, but all LSU can control is beating the teams in front of them and hoping for the best.
