If a school was willing to spend enough money, could it buy its way to an NCAA Championship?

Kentucky spent a whopping $23.6 million on its basketball program this season, while Oakland spent $17.6 million on its entire athletics program, including $2.3 million on men’s basketball.

The Wildcats spent 10 times more than their first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament, but the Golden Grizzlies didn’t care.

Oakland’s Jack Gohlke shot the lights out with 10 3-pointers as the Golden Grizzlies topped Kentucky in the biggest upset of this year’s tournament. For the Wildcats, spending more money has zero impact on their success once the calendar turns to March.

How can college basketball’s powerhouses avoid an early ticket home during March Madness, and what’s the proper blueprint for constructing an NCAA Championship-winning roster?

The growth of the transfer portal

The transfer portal has changed the landscape of college hoops and collegiate athletics as we know it. It’s a whole different market compared to high school recruiting, and it has only grown since the pandemic.

Eleven percent of all points in the 2017 men’s college basketball season were scored by players recruited through the transfer portal. That percentage jumped up nearly four times that in 2023 at 43.4%. For the first time in NCAA history, transfer recruits are expected to outscore high school recruits once the 2024 season is all said and done.

Kentucky fielded eight freshmen and three sophomores out of the 15 players on its roster. Oakland, on the other hand, opted for an older approach, with five players who were either seniors or graduate transfers with only one true freshman.

“It’s changed on us. All of a sudden [the sport has] gotten really old,” legendary Wildcats head coach John Calipari said. “So, we’re playing teams that our average age is 19, [and] their average age is 24 or 25. So do I change because of that?”

The ever-expanding size of the transfer portal is now impossible to ignore. If Kentucky opts to stay young, it may take a couple of years for their youth to develop before they seriously think about competing for a national title.

“There are approximately 4,000 Division I players, and there are going to be 2,000 in the portal. That means half the players in college basketball are looking for a new destination,” said University of Miami head coach Jim Larrañaga. “Does that make sense to anybody? It doesn’t to me.”

In 2024, the players now call the shots, not the coaches or programs. We have entered the era of player empowerment in college basketball.

For the powerhouses and the blue bloods, why spend all your resources recruiting an unproven high schooler when you can spend just as much on a proven hooper who already has experience at the collegiate level?

Unsatisfied players who find themselves in inferior situations, whether it be a lack of team success or untapped potential, will now enter the transfer portal without a second thought to seek greener pastures.

This lack of caution can lead to some players making rash decisions, leading to one-year stint after one-year stint with different schools without ever finding a more permanent home. More and more players are now focusing on the year in front of them without giving much thought to what comes after.

While some believe that the transfer portal favors larger schools with more to offer, March has only become more unpredictable in the last couple of years.

A sudden, recent increase in March Madness upsets

Upsets, defined by the NCAA as a five-or-more seed gap between two teams, have become more common over time. The all-time average is around 8.5 per tournament, but that number skyrockets to 12.7 per tournament when looking at the past three seasons. While there were only three upsets in 2007, we saw as many as 14 in 2021 and 2022.

Contrary to popular belief, the transfer portal has only helped close the gap between college basketball’s haves and have-nots. We’re seeing more upsets in March Madness than we ever have before.

The transfer portal has proved to work both ways. If a good player at a big school isn’t given the right opportunity or put in the right situation, then transferring to a smaller school makes sense for their career.

The year-to-year approach that many transfers may have could be affecting how these college basketball elites structure their rosters. With more roster turnover each year comes less team chemistry built up between players.

The NCAA Tournament is grueling, and once the calendar hits March, the best of the best are seriously battle-tested. A lack of coherent team communication and chemistry is only something that comes with time, but in a one-game elimination setting, time doesn’t exactly grow on trees.

So, how exactly does a team construct a championship-winning roster that can survive the madness of March?

How to win an NCAA Championship

For the second straight year, the Final Four severely lacks an abundance of high school recruits. Last year’s Final Four rosters of UConn, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic and Miami all lacked a single McDonald’s All-American, one of the greatest honors that can be awarded to a high school basketball player.

This year’s Final Four rosters of UConn, Purdue, North Carolina State and Alabama only possess one McDonald’s American: UConn’s Stephon Castle, a key starter for the Huskies all season long.

We are witnessing the transfer portal revolution on the biggest stage in college basketball.

Roster building in men’s college basketball is a craft, a skill and an art form. Some coaches and programs are better at it than others.

Look no further than Dan Hurley and UConn, who are back in the Final Four after losing three starters from 2023’s championship squad. UConn has arguably the best starting five out of any group in this year’s Final Four, with two seniors, two sophomores and a freshman, making the perfect mix of skill, experience, and youth.

UConn is the perfect blueprint for building a championship-worthy roster. By reciting second-year collegiate players, the Huskies stay youthful without lacking experience.

Compared to its competition, UConn’s youthfulness quickly gives it the best chance to return to the Final Four for a third time, as Purdue, NC State and Alabama all have much more senior-heavy rosters.

No matter how dominant a team may be, a little luck comes with every NCAA Tournament run. Before the tournament, all 64 fanbases can hope that the ball bounces their teams’ way for six straight games en route to a National Championship. The NCAA Tournament is a loser machine, with 63 teams going home each year empty-handed.

But watching to see who will be the one to cut down the nets while the confetti falls at the end of the tournament keeps Americans watching at the edge of their seats year after year.