The SEC took a huge hit in last season’s NCAA tournament following what had previously been a competitive and exciting regular season. Despite entering the tournament with six teams seeded six and above, just three teams advanced to the second round, with one of those surviving longer than that in Arkansas.
Still, the conference once again drew lofty expectations heading into the 2022-23 season. Of the six teams that represented it in last season’s tournament, five were expected to remain highly competitive.
Tennessee maintained most of its roster from last season, a season where it won the SEC Tournament. Kentucky kept arguably the best player in the country in Oscar Tshiebwe and surrounded him with the sixth best 2022 recruiting class in the country. Arkansas and Alabama pulled in the nation’s second and fourth best recruiting classes respectively and are in the midst of massive turnarounds, and Auburn wasn’t projected too far behind them despite losing two first rounders. Of those five, SI predicted two could contend for a title in Kentucky and Arkansas.
Behind them, Florida and Texas A&M were expected to improve and make the tournament while LSU was projected to be a bubble team, coming in one of the conference’s biggest mysteries. Though first-year head coach Matt McMahon effectively pieced its roster together, it was difficult to gauge how this team would perform.
And lastly, the bottom of the barrel featured the likes of Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Ole Miss and South Carolina, with Mississippi State barely escaping that distinction.
With that all being said, what do we know now that we’re about halfway through the 2022-23 regular season?
The Surprises
While Arkansas was initially projected as a championship contender, that’s not the potential that’s been displayed through the first third of its conference schedule. Following a nearly perfect stint in non-conference play, it dropped five of its first six SEC contests and didn’t look great while doing it.
It has valid excuses, with two key contributors in Nick Smith Jr. and Trevon Brazile out for an extended period of time and its schedule featuring four matchups against teams in the top half of the conference. But given what we’ve seen so far, this team may have a hard time making the tournament, even if Smith returns.
Kentucky has had a similar start to the season, but hasn’t struggled quite as much as the Razorbacks, especially over the past week. While Tshiebwe has remained a force, him being shut down has typically resulted in a Wildcat loss, most evident in its matchup against Alabama, where Tshiebwe scored four points and they lost by 26.
At its worst, Kentucky sat at a 10-6 record with three SEC losses and was expected to drop a fourth game on the road against No. 5 Tennessee. But that didn’t happen.
The Wildcats bounced back, defeating the perceived, second-best team in the conference, then followed that up with a double-digit win over Georgia a few nights later. They now have a 3-3 conference record and enter a less-than-intimidating stretch of SEC matchups with momentum. It’s hard to gauge if this team’s struggles are over but its outlook certainly looks better than it did the prior week as it slowly navigates the bubble.
On the other side of things, projected bottom-feeders Missouri and Georgia have exceeded expectations. They have already surpassed their win totals from last season, and each possesses wins that could help them make the tournament in March.
Georgia was one of the worst teams in the Power Six last season, winning six games and just one in conference play. Under first-year head coach Mike White, it has already accomplished more than double what it did then, entering conference play with 10 wins and defeating three of its first five SEC opponents, one of which was a double-digit victory over No. 16 Auburn.
Missouri is currently projected as an eight-seed in the NCAA Tournament and though its hype has died down over the last two weeks, following a stint where it defeated back-to-back ranked opponents by double digits, it got back on its feet with a much-needed victory over Arkansas on Wednesday.
Both teams have tough roads ahead of them to the NCAA tournament but have put themselves in great positions early and should see continued success if they maintain their current level of play.
Biggest Winners
At the time of writing this, Alabama and Tennessee appear to be the SEC’s best chance of securing a national title in 2023, with Auburn trailing them by a marquee win or two.
Despite possessing the third toughest schedule in the nation according to ESPN, Alabama is 17-2 and has yet to come close to dropping a conference matchup. It’s projected as a one seed, with marquee wins over No. 1 Houston on the road, Michigan State and North Carolina, and has looked unbeatable through its first six games of SEC play.
Tennessee hasn’t looked quite as invincible, even losing at home against a struggling Kentucky, but it still looks like a title contender and is currently projected as a two seed. Its defense is the best in the country based on defensive efficiency, a big reason why it was able to defeat No. 2 Kansas by double digits. And while its only other marquee wins came against Maryland and USC, I expect that to change in the coming weeks.
Auburn and Texas A&M are probably the trickiest teams in the conference to gauge, having strong starts to conference play but a combined 2-4 record against Quad I teams.
The Aggies were notably knocked out of the top 25 amidst a messy stint in nonconference play but their last few wins indicate that they have adjusted, as they have yet to drop a conference game. Their best win came at home against Missouri, where they trounced the Tigers by 18 behind great shooting and rebounding.
Auburn is 15-3 but its lack of Quad I success has the Tigers projected as a six seed despite being ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25. Still, they’re in great standing when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament, possess one of the best defenses in the country and have a combined six remaining matchups against the three other top teams in the conference left to improve that projection.
Bottom of the Barrel
That leaves the bottom half of the conference, excluding Arkansas.
Of the remaining teams, Florida and Mississippi State currently have the best tournament outlooks. Most of the Bulldogs’ merit wains on their early success, as they started the season 11-0 before dropping six of their next seven, but Florida is a bit more interesting.
Despite a 10-8 record and multiple blowout losses in non-conference play, this team remains on the outskirts of Joe Lunardi’s bubble and hasn’t had a bad conference showing yet. Its three SEC losses have come by a combined deficit of eight points against Auburn and Texas A&M, with two of those coming on the road. Its three wins include a double-digit victory over LSU at home and two strong wins over Georgia and Missouri.
LSU looked to be in great shape after it opened conference play with a then top-ten victory over Arkansas and its lone loss at the time coming by two points to rising-star Kansas State. But since that win, it’s lost its last five games behind poor shooting and shifting starting lineups.
Vanderbilt has flashed potential throughout SEC play, but that hasn’t translated to the win column, as the team is currently 9-9 with a 2-3 record against the SEC. And Ole Miss and South Carolina look to be the worst teams in the conference, in that order. Though the Gamecocks somehow managed a win over Kentucky, they lost their remaining conference matchups by an average deficit of 25 points, including a double-digit loss to the Rebels (Ole Miss’ only SEC win).
There’s still plenty of time for the state of the conference to extensively change, with 12-13 conference games remaining on each team’s schedule. Expect an update in the middle of February.
