Is it over yet?
And no, I’m not talking about Roger Goodell’s war against the New Orleans Saints – though that question will undoubtedly be asked by Saints fans every day for the next year.
I’m talking about the Republican race for the 2012 presidential nomination. With more than 30 states and territories in the rearview mirror, all eyes now turn to Saturday’s Louisiana primary. Unlike recent years, the Pelican State’s primary actually carries significance, with former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum carrying enough support in the state to bounce back after a disappointing loss in Illinois on Tuesday.
It’s been a long and winding road for the candidates, with many awful jokes, fumbles and stumbles along the way.
They’ve taunted, battled and bickered across the country and through amber waves of grain, or corn, as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would say in a knee-slapping manner.
Romney hasn’t fared well in the South this primary season, aside from Florida, but with his win in Illinois on Tuesday, many are calling his front-runner status decisive enough to grab the nomination.
Thus far, it’s been Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who have looted the South in search of delegates. Louisiana’s primary won’t be any different, as Romney has barely competed in the state.
Santorum has campaigned throughout the Gulf region, promising to deliver more jobs by easing the permitting process for oil and gas drilling.
Gingrich has been on the campaign trail throughout the state as well, reiterating his pledge to see gas prices fall to at least $2.50 under his leadership, mostly by opening drilling across the country and utilizing new technologies and untapped wells.
The GOP race has been so tight this cycle that Louisiana might have a role to play for once.
“I can’t remember another presidential nominating process in the last 20 years where Louisiana has had as much relevance as we do this year,” Jason Dore, state GOP executive director, told The Times-Picayune.
Louisiana’s primaries have historically fallen after the nominations were settled or they’ve been overlooked as an insignificant part of the nominating process.
Louisiana Republicans last created an impact in 1996, when the state GOP pushed its caucuses up to Feb. 6 in what many commentators thought was a strategy to provide early momentum for Texas Sen. Phil Gramm. For Democrats, Louisiana hasn’t been a major primary campaign stop since 1984, when Jesse Jackson, Gary Hart and Walter Mondale stumped in the state.
Many thought the state would be hotly contested in the 2008 Democratic primary, but Barack Obama went on to beat former New York Sen. Hillary Clinton by almost 85,000 votes.
The favorite to win – and my personal pick – is Santorum, who will likely play well with Southern voters, as he did in Alabama and Mississippi. The state is heavily populated with the evangelicals and social conservatives that connect with Santorum, who are also sufficiently committed to vote – even in a low-turnout election.
Louisiana spells trouble for Romney, even after a big win in Illinois on Tuesday, as he’s failed to gain the support of the ultraconservative voters within the Republican base.
Romney has largely ignored Louisiana, not spending money on TV ads the way he has in other states – a sign of how little confidence his team has in victory here.
Although favored, Santorum still faces a potential challenge from the Southerner Gingrich and his pitch for low gas prices, which has resonated with voters in the oil-rich state.
After Louisiana, the race moves northward, leaving Santorum and Gingrich fewer opportunities to show strength against Romney.
A win in Louisiana is essential for the Santorum campaign to stay afloat and regain any ground in the delegate count against Romney.
But with the top super PACs supporting Santorum and Gingrich appearing to be low on funds, it will be interesting to see how much further each will march in his quest for the White House.
Matthew Westfall is a 23-year-old mass communication senior from Winchester, Va. Follow him on Twitter @TDR_mwestfall.
 
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Contact Matthew Westfall at [email protected]