It’s a common occurrence after a revolution.
A power vacuum exists once the former regime is toppled. The populace, hoping to achieve some sense of order, puts power in the hands of a chosen group of leaders. Eventually, the leaders consolidate authority and emerge as the de-facto rulers continuing the cycle of authoritarian rule.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Revolutionary Russia experienced it with the Bolsheviks, and France had their own taste of the exchange of power when the Jacobins reigned.
Egypt may now find itself in a similar situation.
Muslim Brotherhood-backed candidate Mohamed Morsi has emerged as the winner of Egypt’s presidential election, but the office he campaigned for may have been more powerful when he was just a candidate.
In the days before the run off vote, Egypt’s attempts at democracy were already under attack.
Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court, believed to be made of former Mubarak loyalists, dissolved the popularly elected and Islamist-controlled parliament, and the Justice Ministry reimposed martial law by allowing the military to arrest civilians and try them in military courts until a new constitution is a ratified.
As polls were closing during the final moments of the presidential election last week, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces made moves to consolidate power and strengthen its position in the country as the ruling authority.
The SCAF issued a declaration granting itself legislative authority and greater control regarding the writing of Egypt’s new constitution.
The move also served to strip the incoming president of much of his powers, emphasizing that the incoming president would not chair the council as previous presidents were allowed. In effect, the military would become a separate branch of government free from any kind of oversight from the populace.
The move should not come as much of a surprise. The military was one of the main sources of authority under Hosni Mubarak’s regime and enjoyed a position of prestige in Egyptian society. When the Egyptian populace put the transition to democracy in the SCAF’s hands, the military was given the tool it needed to ensure that its position in Egyptian society would not be diminished.
However, the military has stated that the president will continue to have the authority to veto legislation and appoint a cabinet. The SCAF has also said it is committed to upholding its promise to relinquish authority back to civilians after the set date of June 30.
Yet, with the deadline only a few days away, it is suspicious that the military council would grant itself such sweeping powers if it did not wish to retain much of its authority.
The SCAF’s actions have been seen as an attempt to diminish the growing power that Islamists, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, have won in the parliamentary and presidential elections. Many fear Islamist rule would undermine freedom, especially for women, in Egypt and renew hostilities in an already volatile region. The SCAF is seen as the best protection from that and the only hope for secular rule in the country.
But what is best for the Egyptian people?
So far, it has been the SCAF, not the Muslim Brotherhood and their ilk, that has been most opposed to the democratic processes being attempted in Egypt.
The Muslim Brotherhood participated in both the parliamentary and presidential elections and were chosen by the Egyptian people in both. Meanwhile, the military has disbanded parliament and weakened the president’s authority.
Many of the military’s opponents have denounced these moves as a “soft coup.”
Such a move is not without precedent.
In the ’90s, Algerian military officials attempted to use legal powers to dissolve the country’s National Assembly and remove its president from power. Their goal was to combat the growing influence of Islamist parties in the government. The Algerian military’s actions plunged the country into a decade-long civil war, but the military won in the end.
While Egypt will most likely not suffer a similar fate, the conflict between the country’s military and Islamists will indeed shape its future.
David Scheuermann is a 20-year-old mass communication and computer science sophomore from Kenner. Follow him on Twitter at @TDR_dscheu.
____ Contact David Scheuermann at [email protected]
Egyptian military greatest threat to democratic transition
June 25, 2012