The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a four-page report Aug. 4, attempting to quantify the amount of oil remaining in the Gulf of Mexico after the spill and to explain what exactly happened to the oil no longer forming slicks on the Gulf’s surface.
According to the report, about 25 percent of the oil has naturally dissolved or evaporated, another 25 percent has been burned or skimmed, about 24 percent was either naturally or chemically dispersed and only 26 percent of the original oil remains.
The study sparked a great deal of controversy, both from residents of the coast and from researchers in the Gulf. Both groups have described the report as more spin than science, but for just for a moment, let’s take the report as fact.
If the report is accurate, we certainly have something to celebrate. If three quarters of the oil is no longer a problem, there shouldn’t be much left to clean up at this point.
Unfortunately, this sunny outlook doesn’t take into account the magnitude of the original spill.
According to the most recent government estimates, about 207 million gallons, or 4.9 million barrels, of oil escaped from the Deepwater Horizon well. That means there are about 54 million gallons of oil still pooling on the surface of the gulf, about five times the amount spilled by the Exxon Valdez accident in 1989.
Fortunately, the Gulf of Mexico and Prince William Sound have dramatically different climates and ecosystems. The warm water of the Gulf not only encourages the evaporation of the oil and other compounds, but it also plays host to millions of microscopic oil-eating organisms not found in large numbers in colder climates.
An oil spill of this magnitude is obviously unnatural and constitutes an ecological crisis, though the Gulf of Mexico regularly deals with smaller amounts of oil naturally leaking from the ocean floor.
However, evaporation and dissolution only account for about a quarter of the spill, which, when combined with human efforts like skimming and burning, only account for half of the original oil. The last 24 percent of the vanishing oil was dispersed either naturally or “as the result of operations,” according to the NOAA’s report.
This does not mean the oil is gone. When oil is dispersed, it breaks up into tiny droplets that are then distributed throughout the water column, many of which recombine and sink to the ocean floor.
While this certainly makes the surface look better, and can make it easier for the oil to naturally dissolve and biodegrade, it comes at the cost of pouring toxic oil dispersants into the Gulf.
This process not only pollutes the water but also makes the oil impossible to recover through other methods and affects bottom dwelling sea creatures such as shrimp and crabs.
Research is currently underway on the long-term effects of the spill on Louisiana’s blue crab populations after oil was found contaminating crab larvae. Tainted crabs could have long term effects on numerous sea creature populations, which would affect Louisiana’s $300 million-a-year crab industry, not to mention populations of redfish and other crab eating animals.
Dispersed oil hasn’t gone anywhere. It has just changed form.
The bottom line is even if the best-case scenario is true and half of the oil is gone, there are still more than 100 million gallons of oil either floating on or beneath the surface of the Gulf.
While the well is finally capped and clean up crews are packing up, there remains a monumental task ahead of us, and we will most certainly be living with BP’s big mistake for a long time.
Andrew Shockey is a 19-year-old biological engineering sophomore from Baton Rouge. Follow him on Twitter @TDR_Ashockey.
 
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