Watching college football growing up, I had no idea what the numbers next to the school names on my screen meant. Later on, I would discover that these numbers were of course the teams’ spots in the latest Associated Press rankings released earlier that week.
These rankings spark debate, and no weeks throughout the season are more heavily criticized than the preseason rankings. Each year it seems there’s a team whose expectations are a little higher than they should be, ranked highly before the season begins that endures some turbulence through the season and comes out either on the other end of the rankings, or not on them at all.
Recently, LSU has somewhat experienced this, including the opposite way. Multiple times in recent seasons LSU has either underperformed or overperformed based on their preseason rankings. Here’s a look at the Tigers’ preseason AP rankings since 2015 and how accurate those rankings turned out to be.
2015
Started: 14
High: 4
Low: NR
Ended: 16 (9-3)
Bowl Game: Defeated Texas Tech in Texas Bowl 56-27
The Associated Press nearly hit the nail on the head with this one. The Tigers started 7-0 in 2015, jumping from #14 to #4 in the poll. After that, things started to go downhill. LSU followed their undefeated start with three consecutive losses to seventh-ranked Alabama, unranked Arkansas and 25th ranked Ole Miss. The Tigers were able to close out the regular season with a victory over Texas A&M and handle Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl.
2016
Started: 5
High: 5
Low: NR
Ended: 13 (8-4)
Bowl Game: Defeated Louisville in Citrus Bowl 29-9
Unlike the previous year, the folks at AP missed on this ranking. Coming off a 9-3 2015 season, LSU slotted in at #5 in the preseason poll. That would be the highest the team would be ranked all season, losing the opener and then again to Auburn in the fourth game of the season before falling out of the top-25 until week seven. Week four would be it for head coach Les Miles, and Ed Orgeron would take over and lead the team to a 6-2 finish and a win over Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals in the Citrus Bowl.
2017
Started: 13
High: 12
Low: NR
Ended: 18 (9-4)
Bowl Game: Defeated by Notre Dame in Citrus Bowl 21-17
Similar to the year before, LSU slid from the preseason to end of year rankings, although not as much as the previous season. After starting 3-2 with the infamous loss to Troy, the Tigers found themselves unranked for multiple weeks, and yet again, fell to Alabama. Second-year head coach Orgeron and fifth-year quarterback Danny Etling closed out the regular season with a three win, one loss November, and lost to Notre Dame 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl.
2018
Started: 25
High: 4
Low: 25
Ended: 6 (10-3)
Bowl Game: Defeated UCF in Fiesta Bowl 40-32
Hello, Joe Burrow! The Ohio State transfer made his mark in Baton Rouge early, leading LSU to a 7-1 start, including a 33-17 victory over eighth-ranked Miami in week one, and a #4 ranking heading into the yearly matchup with Alabama. The Tigers dropped that one, and then the also infamous seven-overtime game to Texas A&M a few weeks later. We now know that’s the last game LSU would lose to date, and a victory over UCF, who hadn’t lost a game themselves in two seasons, in the Fiesta Bowl sets up arguably the greatest season in college football history.
As for the rankings, the Associated Press was off on this one too, but not in the way it had been in years past.
2019
Started: 6
High: 1
Low: 6
Ended: 1 (15-0)
Bowl Game: Defeated Clemson in National Championship 42-25
Coming off a promising 2018, LSU went into 2019 ranked sixth in the country. The Tigers would go on to never drop below that ranking on their way to an undefeated season and a National Championship.
2020
Started: 6
The Tigers look a lot different heading into this season.
Defensive lineman Tyler Shelvin, the most recent Tiger to skip this season, joins last year’s Biletnikoff award winner Ja’Marr Chase and safety Kary Vincent Jr. as notable names to opt out this upcoming season. That list may not be done, either. Orgeron says he knows of at least “one or two” more players who are considering opting out. Add that to the record-setting 14 members of last year’s squad to hear their names called at the NFL Draft.
The losses from last season are reflected in the preseason ranking, as LSU comes in at sixth in the nation coming off a victory over Clemson, the preseason number one, in the National Championship game last winter.
How accurate will this season’s ranking be? In a season like no other, anything can happen. The toughest matchups look to be Florida, Auburn, and of course, Alabama. In my eyes, anywhere from a 6-4and 10-0 record is possible, although this is not a record prediction article. Looking at where the Tigers started in recent seasons in the polls, AP both overestimated and underestimated.