The recent revolution spreading across the global community has been largely heralded as a fantastic victory for democracy — until it drove gas prices up.
Many of the countries undergoing unprecedented change don’t produce much oil internationally, or many of our imports at all. Tunisia, for example, isn’t a major producer of oil, specializing instead in agricultural goods like olives and grain. Even those go mostly to France, Italy and other European countries.
So it isn’t surprising that when they had their limelight, Americans were largely unconcerned and disinterested in the victories abroad, except maybe to praise their move to a more open democracy (But I suspect that has more to do with our own smug self-pride than any real joy for our brothers’ success).
When the freedom comes with an inconvenience — say, gas at $5 a gallon — we somehow seem less excited for their independence.
It isn’t surprising, though. Economists, as well as experts in countless other fields like evolutionary psychology and biology, have suspected this self-interest to be at the heart of many of our actions.
Libya produces around 1 million barrels of oil each day, and with rebels in the country controlling, by their claim, around 85 percent of the major oil-producing locations inside the country, we may be in for a serious rise in gas prices.
It’s not just about groaning at the pumps, though. We have to be prepared for commercial industries to take real hits — possibly even go out of business — if the prices get too high too quickly for us to adjust.
Take the aviation industry, for example, which heavily relies on fossil-fuel prices. If the price per gallon goes up a few cents every few weeks, say from Monday’s U.S. $3.38 average to $3.43, we’ll probably be OK. A jump to $4.50 tomorrow, however, could be detrimental.
According to an analysis done by Deutsche Bank, a $10 increase in oil prices causes retail gas to go up around 25 cents, and because every one cent increase leads to about $1.4 billion more in household energy consumption, we could see a $25 billion hit to the U.S. economy — two-tenths of a percent of our total GDP — for every $10 increase.
In other words, a spike in oil prices could be the wind that knocks the baby off the tree top.
Interestingly, though, we wouldn’t really suffer all that much. Because much of the world pays much more for gas than we do, we would really just be adjusting to their price level. In Britain, for example, gas runs close to $10 a gallon.
It’s less like we’re experiencing hell, and more like getting kicked out of the Garden of Eden.
We’ve enjoyed some relatively low gas prices for some time now, and even though we can’t be sure when it will end, we know it will.
Even given the hit to our GDP, then, we won’t be all that bad off if oil prices increase.
The higher prices would lead to innovation — and that’s the key.
We might finally get public transportation in this country, which would create jobs, save gas money and drastically reduce our death grip on the environment.
In fact, a slow, steady increase in oil prices might even be one of the best things that could happen to the U.S.
It could be the final push – the last straw – to getting some really incredible things done in this country.
And let’s not forget, in our callous calculations of correlation and price, we’re talking about a nation’s freedom — their right to live, and to live as they please.
Devin Graham is a 21-year-old business management senior from Prairieville. Follow him on
Twitter @TDR_dgraham.
 
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Contact Devin Graham at
[email protected]