What a difference a year makes. After Congressman John Cooksey’s infamous “diaper” and “fan belt” comment, most observers felt Sen. Mary Landrieu would coast toward re-election. The Democratic National Committee listed Landrieu as a “safe” incumbent, and she appeared to believe her re-election was secure. Landrieu was living comfortably in her $2 million house in D.C. and did not place much emphasis on returning to Louisiana to campaign.
Because of the succesful Republican strategy and Landrieu’s problems with her base, her political future is in doubt. The University of New Orleans released a poll Monday showing Landrieu’s runoff against Election Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell as a statistical dead heat. Terrell may win this race and become the first Republican senator from Louisiana since reconstruction.
Here are a few of the reasons Landrieu did not run away with this election:
Although Landrieu squeaked into office by slightly more than 5,000 votes in a disputed 1996 election, she did not run a permanent campaign back in the state. Many Louisiana incumbents move their families to the D.C. area and rarely return home. But this usually only occurs after being re-elected several times when seen as an unbeatable candidate.
Landrieu picked up the trend early in her Washington career. She doesn’t even own a home in the state she is elected to represent.
Louisiana residents have noticed her absence. Many times Louisiana residents are willing to have a member of congress who doesn’t show her face in the state if she comes through with funding projects for her constituents. But her success at bringing funding home to Louisiana has been mediocre at best. While being a member of the majority and sitting on the Senate Appropriations Committee, she failed to get any funding for Louisiana’s pet project to extend I-49.
Landrieu owes a debt of gratitude to the African-American community, especially those from New Orleans. She won Orleans parish by more than 100,000 votes in the 96′ election. Without the boost provided by the black vote, she certainly would have lost.
Many African-American leaders felt slighted by her post-election behavior and even threatened to jump in the race for her re-election. Some leaders such as state Sen. Kip Holden stuck with her. Others, including state Sen. Cleo Fields reluctantly endorsed her, but stopped short of agreeing to help get the vote out for her. African-American leaders cite different reasons for not wanting to support Landrieu. Some say she has not called them since the last election. Others say she failed to lead and serve the black community as she should.
“I’m not going to campaign against her,” State Sen. Greg Tarver told The Advocate. “I’m going to serve her like she has served my people.”
Still, some black and liberal leaders feel she has gone too far to the right and abandoned her core values leaving them little to be excited about. “The first thing she did was to start running about how close she was to [Republican President] George Bush and how she had a 74 percent voting record with him. Now, how’s that going to turn me on?” Sen. Fields said.
Landrieu’s attempt to position herself in the center may only serve to disgruntle her base while failing to win support from Louisiana moderates. Although she claims to vote with Bush 74 percent of the time, her voting record contains many key votes for ultra-liberal legislation.
There is a stark difference between Bush and Landrieu’s philosophies. Beyond her support of Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, she has voted in favor of abortion and gun control while voting against tax cuts and the homeland security bill. Landrieu is not a moderate when it comes to abortion. She voted for taxpayer funding of abortion for teens, federal employees and at military bases.
During her first campaign, the Archbishop of New Orleans Philip Hannan said it would be a sin to vote for her because of her stance on abortion. “My own grandfather did not vote for me,” Landrieu told The New York Times regarding the controversy surrounding her abortion stance in the ’96 election.
She represents the state known as the “Sportsman’s Paradise,” but she regularly votes in favor of gun-control measures and earned a C- rating from the National Rifle Association.
Her past votes and actions contradict her re-election campaign. If Louisiana wanted a non-resident senator who supported a platform in contradiction with its values, it would have tried to lure Hillary Clinton away from New York.
With lukewarm support from her base and the opposition of a popular president, Landrieu is likely to lose on Saturday.