Even with head coach Sean Payton back in the fold, the New Orleans Saints will struggle to get back into the playoffs in the 2013-14 season.
Quarterback Drew Brees and the offense will hum along at the elite level it has since Payton and Brees were united in the 2006-07 season, but the sieve that is the Saints defense will hold the team back to merely competing for one of the NFC Wild Card spots.
But the Saints will hang their hat on the offensive side of the ball, as they have for the past few seasons. The biggest addition to the offense will be the reintroduction of Payton as the play caller, but some of the key position groups have questions going into the season.
Wide Receivers
Even though the receiver corps was depleted with the loss of Devery Henderson, his reputation as a deep-threat far exceeded his actual ability in his last season with the organization. Marques Colston will continue his steady production as the No. 1 receiver in the offense — in the last four seasons Colston has averaged 1,100 yards with 9 touchdowns.
Currently, Lance Moore is slotted as the outside receiver to go along with Colston, but like LSU’s Jarvis Landry, Moore’s best work is usually in the slot. Moore’s reputation as a short yardage specialist is a little unfair, though.
Moore’s percentage of targets in which he was 15 yards or more down the field was 35.6, good for third on the team. But unlike Henderson and Joe Morgan, Moore’s success rate was much higher. According to Advanced NFL Stats, Moore had a 61.1 percent success rate and when compared to the Morgan and Henderson — 42.3 and 44 percent, respectively —Moore was the most effective deep threat on the Saints last season.
Of the other receivers, Nick Toon— if healthy — could see the most time opposite Colston in three receiver sets. The coaching staff loved Toon when they drafted him last season, and his combination of size and reliable hands could see him develop into a solid No. 2 receiver this season.
Tight Ends
However, the jewel of the passing game next season will be tight end Jimmy Graham.
Graham by all accounts had an “off” season last year as he led the NFL in drops with 13, but still managed to add 1.2 wins to the Saints last season. Graham had the third-highest yardage total for tight ends. He accounted for a whopping 20.6 percent of the teams total targets, also highest on the team.
By eliminating all the drops, Graham could prove to be the NFL’s best tight end this season with Rob Gronkowski recovering from multiple surgeries.
Running Backs
The running game is the portion of the offense that could see the most improvement under Payton.
Under Payton in 2011, the Saints running backs rushed for 2,209 yards, averaging five yards a carry. In 2012 when Payton was suspended, the Saints only managed 1,541 yards on 4.78 yards per carry. The major drop-off was due to poor play-calling, not the loss of All-Pro guard Carl Nicks, as shown by the incremental decrease in yards per carry.
Rushing attempts dropped off considerably in 2012. In 2011, the Saints rushed the ball 442, compared to only 350 times in 2012. Also, the division of carries became more skewed toward less-efficient players.
For the past two seasons, Mark Ingram has been by far the Saints least efficient running back, yet in 2012 the coaching staff saw it fit to give him 51 more carries than Pierre Thomas. Ingram is the type of back who needs 20-plus carries to be an effective back.
The games that saw Ingram receive more than 15 carries, proved to be his most effective, as he rushed for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Also in the game against Tampa Bay on December 16 when he received 14 carries Ingram rushed for 90 yards and a touchdown.
But since Payton has been the head coach, the Saints have used the running back by committee approach, which is why it was curious Thomas didn’t receive more touches.
Thomas’ success rate last season was 47 percent according to Advanced NFL Stats, much higher than Ingram’s, which sat at 38 percent; lowest of Saints running backs who received significant carries.
Thomas has also proven throughout his career to be an ace receiver out of the backfield, opening up options when play-calling. Since his integration into the offense in 2008, Thomas has averaged 41 receptions, 347 yards and touchdowns every season through the air.
Basically, the Saints need to play Ingram to save face for trading up for him in the 2011 draft and giving away a first round pick.
Even with a struggling defense, the Saints offensive efficiency should carry them to at least a .500 season. For the Saints to compete for a playoff position in the NFC, new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and the incoming rookies Kenny Vaccaro and John Jenkins will have to make a significant difference to last year’s historically bad unit.