Four teams are still vying for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, but for the fans of the other 28 squads it’s never too early to start thinking about the NFL Draft.
ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. released his first mock draft of 2014 on Wednesday. It’s early in the process, but the biggest splash from his mock involve 2013’s worst team, the Houston Texans, and what they may do with their first overall pick to rebound from a 2-14 season.
Kiper projected the Texans will select Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel.
Financially, the pick is a no-brainer. The 2012 Heisman-winner is easily the most famous and marketable player in the draft, and has cemented himself as a Texas legend before ever taking a snap for Houston.
The Texans would sell millions of dollars’ worth of tickets and Manziel jerseys before the ink dried on his first professional autograph – or contract, as most call it.
But from a football perspective, an argument can be made that taking Manziel first overall would be a reach. Some view the wild playmaking ability that created the legend of Johnny Football as a liability, and there are mixed reviews on how well his game will translate to the next level.
ESPN’s Todd McShay rates Manziel as 18th best overall prospect in the draft class. He slotted Manziel as the third-best quarterback behind Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater and UCF’s Blake Bortles.
McShay projected Houston selecting Bridgewater first overall in his initial mock draft, and the Raiders selecting Bortles two selections later at third overall. Manziel was his third quarterback off the board.
This stems from draft analysts’ constant attempt to force college quarterbacks into what they consider to be the ideal mold of an NFL quarterback. At times an analyst will become so focused on how a quarterback will translate into an offense, they overlook another guy who is simply a better player.
For example, McShay slotted Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert ahead of Auburn’s Cam Newton as the best quarterback in the 2011 class. Newton had arguably the most dominant collegiate season of all time, but Gabbert was rated ahead of him because of questions about how Newton would produce in a more pro-style.
If Carolina would have drafted Gabbert first overall, it would be a laughing stock — just ask Jacksonville. If Houston takes Bridgewater over Manziel it will be making a similar mistake.
Houston isn’t that far away from being successful. The Texans were a solid playoff team in back-to-back seasons, and they only became a complete disaster when a rash of injuries was combined with the implosion of incumbent quarterback Matt Schaub.
Add a good quarterback to a healthy roster, and Houston could regain its status as an AFC-contender as early as next season.
Manziel is the best equipped of the trio to step in and lead a team immediately. The level of competition he faced in the SEC is more comparable to the NFL than what Bridgewater or Bortles ever experienced in college.
Bridgewater and Bortles will grade better at the combine and may have very solid NFL careers, but Manziel has the makings to become a superstar from day one.
And the first pick in the NFL Draft is supposed to be used on spectacular, not solid.
Houston, we have a savior.
James Moran is a 21-year-old mass communication senior from Beacon, N.Y.