No. 42 LSU (14-10, 4-8 SEC) begins its SEC tournament venture tomorrow with an even matchup against No. 34 Mississippi State (14-11, 4-8 SEC). The Bulldogs are seeded ahead of the Tigers, but their seasons have been nearly identical.
While LSU has not defeated a team that currently ranks in the top-25 this season, the Tigers do sport a 7-10 record against the top-75, which just edges out Mississippi State at 6-11. But the Bulldogs have the best win of the two, defeating No. 18 Middle Tennessee during non conference play.
Each team sports multiple top-40 wins, with LSU defeating No. 31 Ole Miss and No. 37 Tulsa, and Mississippi State garnering wins against No. 30 Auburn and No. 36 Memphis. On paper, the two teams’ schedules read the same, but there is a subtle difference between the lines.
LSU’s progression and consistency against middle-of-the-pack SEC teams is more impressive than its opponents,’ with the Tigers not dropping a match against anyone ranked below No. 21 since their loss to Mississippi State nearly six weeks ago. In that span, they defeated four teams currently ranking above No. 51, including both top-40 teams.
The Bulldogs dropped matches to No. 32 Ole Miss and No. 51 Arkansas in that span, teams that LSU defeated. They may not be incredibly inconsistent, as they did bounce back with a near-sweep over Vanderbilt, but the difference between the teams when it comes to matchups in that range has been in LSU’s favor lately.
The Tigers have improved since their last matchup against Mississippi State, but that does not mean this will be a sure win by any means. The two teams faced each other on March 11, where the Bulldogs came out on top in a tight one.
The key differences that provided Mississippi State with an edge lie in their star player, Florian Broska, and a second ranked singles player in No. 68 Nemanja Malesevic.
Broska not only ranks in the top-25 in singles at No. 22, but his doubles duo with Gregor Ramskogler is also ranked No. 41. He provided the Bulldogs with a point and a half against the Tigers, defeating Ronnie Hohmann in three sets at Court 1 and contributing a doubles point.
He has been more consistent than Hohmann throughout the season, having a win percentage of 63.6% as opposed to his counterpart’s 52.3%. Since a brief spurt of dominance in March, in which he defeated three ranked opponents (all currently in the top-50), Hohmann has not won a ranked match.
Malesevic is a problem for LSU’s depth, as their advantage lies in the consistency of their lower courts rather than individual strength. The Tigers do not have many players that can take down ranked opponents.
Kent Hunter and Vlad Lobak each garnered ranked wins in March, but those foes have since dropped from the polls. Lobak’s last matchup with Malesevic was a loss in straight sets, but the sets were tight, each finishing at 6-4.
While Mississippi State’s talent at Courts 1 and 2 gave the Tigers trouble, that trouble was returned in the form of LSU’s depth. Courts 3, 4 and 5 all went the way of Purple and Gold. With singles being split down the middle, the match came down to the doubles point.
While consistency is arguably more important in singles than doubles, the doubles point is still incredibly important when it comes to deciding tight matches. And in this particular match, it came down to two individual games.
With each team contributing a doubles point, it came down to Kent Hunter and Gabriel Diaz Freire’s match on Court 2, which sat at a tied score of 5-5. Their opponents in Davide Tortora and Nemanja Malesevic, of course, would claim the next two games, unknowingly providing their team with just the edge they needed.
However, Hunter and Diaz Freire have improved as a duo since that matchup, winning seven of their last 10 matches, including their last three. While LSU has struggled in doubles throughout the season, they have shown progression in recent matches, claiming the last two doubles points against Kentucky and Arkansas after narrowly losing in doubles against Texas A&M.
Considering LSU’s recent improvement in doubles and their depth in singles, my prediction is that LSU will advance with a 4-3 victory over the Bulldogs.
Like the Arkansas match, the Tigers will narrowly secure the doubles point before splitting singles 3-3, with their depth continuing to produce points like they have throughout most of the season. Their victories could come from anywhere, but I expect Courts 3, 4 and 6 to be the ones to produce them.
It would be a huge victory if they managed to pull it off, but that will likely be where their journey ends. They unfortunately ended up at the wrong end of the bracket, with the winner’s quarterfinal opponent being No. 3 Florida.
The Tigers suffered a 0-7 sweep the last time the two faced off, and although Hohmann did not play in that one, I doubt the outcome will be very different here. If they had appeared on the other side of the bracket, they could have matched up against South Carolina or Kentucky, where they would have had a better chance.
Even with that being a tough end to their tournament, the overall outcome would still be huge for a team who has not advanced in the SEC tournament since 2015.
