LSU is preparing to take on the Gauntlet.
Every team in the SEC experiences it, but LSU will see their toughest challenges in the next five weeks. LSU will play the likes of Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Arkansas. Each team will be a tough test for LSU.
Starting with Tennessee, LSU faces an offense that will test if their defense is that solid. Tennessee brings a Heisman candidate and high-powered offense to Baton Rouge. Hendon Hooker has been spectacular this year. Hooker ranks inside the top 10 in EPA. EPA is the total expected points added with low leverage plays. It is an advanced stat that gives a points value to each play and based on the outcome of the play, changes the EPA.
For Hooker, he is second in the SEC in EPA. This means that offensively, Hooker is among the best in the SEC. Tennessee also dominates many of the offensive stats in the SEC.
According to the ESPN football power index, LSU has a 58.3% chance to win. Where does this come from if Tennessee is so good? Tennessee’s defense is why. The Volunteer secondary has struggled at times this year. It will be up to the LSU offense to expose this weakness and outscore the opposition.
Another thing LSU has to their advantage is playing at home. Playing at home is seen as a massive boost on the ESPN prediction.
Expect Tennessee to give the Tigers the hardest challenge they have faced so far this season. The Tigers will need to be explosive on offense and resilient on defense.
After Tennessee, the Tigers hit the road and head to the swamp to take on Florida. The Gators have had an up and down season so far, as they started the year unranked, jumped to the top 15 and then fell out the rankings. The Gators have been able to hang with tough teams like Tennessee and even beat Utah.
The tough part about the Florida game will be going on the road to a hostile environment like the Swamp. It never is an easy place to play, and LSU will need to be on top of their game. ESPN is giving LSU a 70.6% chance to win, but I think it will be much tougher than that.
After a tough road game at Florida, the Tigers come home to face off against a current top 10 Ole Miss squad. Ole Miss has proven to be a lot like LSU this year. They are both using transfer QBs who are still learning the SEC way and relying heavily on defense. The Rebels have only allowed 11.8 points per game this season compared to LSU’s 14.8. I think this could be the best game of the bunch.
Jaxson Dart has had a decent start to his time at Ole Miss but definitely could improve. I think by the time the two teams play; Dart should be in much better standing than he is now. ESPN is giving the Tigers a 60.4% chance to win this one. I think that number is slightly too high but playing in Death Valley should give them a big boost.
After the Ole Miss game is the game that could shut down the city of Baton Rouge: Alabama. The Crimson Tide have proven that they are once again one of the country’s premier teams. They boast a Heisman candidate quarterback in Bryce Young. They have a top pick in the NFL draft on defense. This team is good, and LSU will have to be at the top of their game if they want to win this one.
Alabama has an amazing .226 EPA margin. This takes in account both offense and defense. The offense is more heavily reflected. They also rank highly on every EPA stat. ESPN is giving LSU a 20% chance to win this game. Especially after the last three games they have to play before this one, I think that’s pretty accurate.
LSU ends the gauntlet with an underrated tough game against Arkansas. Arkansas was nearing the top 10 in the AP poll before two losses to Texas A&M and Alabama. The Razorbacks have KJ Jefferson, an amazing dual threat quarterback who gives defenses headaches.
While I think LSU can handle the Razorbacks, they are playing in Arkansas. This makes the game 20 times tougher. ESPN is giving LSU a 72.3% chance to win, but I think it could almost tip towards favoring Arkansas by the time we reach the game.
So there we have it, the gauntlet is upon the Tigers. If they come out of this 5-0, they are a national championship contender. However, I think 3-2 is much more reasonable. You will probably drop one of the road games and winning two of those big games at home would be huge. We just have to wait and see how things play out.
