The initial feeling of many LSU fans, new and seasoned, regarding this game was one of confidence, as Auburn was seemingly one of the easier games on the Tigers’ schedule. But from time-to-time, uneasiness reared its ugly head. Not enough to change minds but enough that an unexpected outcome wasn’t outside the realm of possibility.
Auburn was written off as an easy opponent by most college football fans, and to be fair, why wouldn’t they be? The War Eagles’ previous feats included nearly losing to San Jose State, getting blown out by Penn State and avoiding an embarrassing loss to a terrible Missouri team by way of its opponent’s own failures.
That isn’t the track record of a team I would’ve expected to challenge LSU, who was coming off an impressive win over Mississippi State (who defeated No. 17 Texas A&M by 18 points earlier in the day) and a shutout of New Mexico, and I’m sure most of you reading this felt the same way. Whether it was LSU fans, Auburn fans, LSU media or Auburn media, most expected this to be over early.
So, why the sense of uneasiness?
Well for those who’ve witnessed even a few of these matchups, you know its outcome is rarely what it should be.
In 2012, an LSU team that lost two games during the regular season and nearly beat the eventual national champion in Alabama almost lost to an Auburn team that went on to finish 3-9. Les Miles was fired after LSU’s loss to Auburn in 2016 and the next two matchups featured multi-score comebacks by the purple & gold. LSU’s 2019 national championship team came closest to losing to Auburn, not to Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma or Clemson.
For the most part, an LSU-Auburn game is destined to be absurd and unpredictable. And the 2022 rendition may be up there with some of the greats.
Despite low expectations, Auburn came out of the gate firing and seemed to catch LSU by surprise. Robby Ashford, who wasn’t seen as a great passer heading into the game, moved the ball down the field with ease against the Bayou Bengal defense, one that had previously been effective against the pass, most notably against the air raid of Mississippi State.
Ashford almost doubled the pass yardage he had garnered in Auburn’s game against Missouri after just the first half against LSU. While that was partially due to struggles in communication within the secondary, according to Head Coach Brian Kelly, that didn’t make LSU fans feel much better. Just over five minutes into the second quarter, the Auburn Tigers had a 17-point lead and a win-probability of 80%.
That number creeped up for the next few minutes, peaking at 82.3% after LSU punted to Auburn. But when a team starts to feel secure in this matchup, that’s usually when the game flips upside down.
On the first play of the possession, Ashford attempted to avoid the rush of BJ Ojulari and failed in the worst way possible, having the ball stripped as he tried to throw it away. Jay Ward picked it up and before you could blink, LSU was on the scoreboard. It would then add another touchdown just before the half ended.
Just as each fanbase had processed the onslaught Auburn had put on, its results had been all but nullified.
The third quarter was relatively normal, featuring some questionable decisions by Auburn Head Coach, Bryan Harsin, that screwed his team and a great drive running the ball for the LSU Tigers. Harsin’s lack of situational awareness would reach its peak when a decision to have Koy Moore throw the ball on a trick play within ten yards of the end zone led to a Harold Perkins interception. While the game wasn’t over, the few LSU fans present in the stands were relieved to have the ball with the lead.
A few punts later and that relief had grown, reaching its peak when Auburn muffed one of those punts, giving LSU the ball in Auburn territory with less than five minutes remaining and increasing its win probability to 92%. If you ended it here, fans would have considered this an average LSU-Auburn game, looking ahead to a more predictable matchup against Tennessee.
Fans turning to their families and friends to react to what just happened likely felt dread when the crowd went wild again just two plays later. Within enemy territory approaching the end of the game, John Emery Jr. fumbled the ball, giving it back to the War Eagles with plenty of time left.
Like Bo Nix in their previous matchup, Auburn would not go down. A few big runs later and LSU’s win probability had decreased to 68% and its opponents had made it into its territory. Auburn was effectively running the clock down as well, so this was it.
It was Bryan Harsin’s moment to shine.
After getting stuffed on first down, a short pass to decrease the distance between them and the line-to-gain wasn’t a bad move. The pass from Ashford wasn’t bad either but if you’re an Auburn fan, this was probably the last time you felt any hope during this game.
Greg Brooks Jr. ripped the ball out of Moore’s hands, forming a ‘U’ on the game’s win-probability chart with the fourth quarter’s fourth turnover, and the third in the last eight plays.
A perfect end to a woefully imperfect game, and a solid rendition to add to the list of absurd matchups between the two teams. Here’s to many more.
