On the heels of a disappointing 45-24 loss to Florida State, LSU football is at a crossroads. This type of humiliating loss, in which FSU at one point scored 38 unanswered points, is the type that defines a season.
LSU must now decide what exactly that will mean for them. This outcome can be the beginning of a backslide and the exposé of a team that was never really that good to begin with, or it can rally the team to take its preparation more seriously and salvage a successful season.
The loss came as a result in part because of some predictable issues. The pass-rush was inconsistent with a crop of edge rushers new to the program, star defensive lineman Maason Smith sitting out and Harold Perkins relegated to more of an off-ball role.
The secondary, which was always in question as it featured many new faces, was ripped apart and struggled to communicate, leaving gaping holes for FSU’s receivers.
Those struggles were relatively unsurprising. However, the offensive line’s inability to get a push up front, the receiving group’s drop struggles and LSU’s inability to convert several key fourth downs were issues that most observers felt confident about coming into the game.
Once ranked No. 5 and considered a leading contender for the College Football Playoff, LSU is now at a middling No. 14 in the AP Poll. Many people believe the loss is the end of the Tigers’ hopes for making the CFP. While the loss is cause for concern, that take may be overly pessimistic.
When the CFP committee makes its selections for the four playoff teams at the end of the year, it claims to take in a number of objective factors, including strength of schedule, record against common opponents and whether or not the team makes a conference championship.
The truth of the matter is the committee often makes its decisions on a more nuanced and subjective basis. Most of the time, it’s apples to oranges when you’re comparing an SEC team to a Big 10 team. There aren’t very many points of comparison when the teams play entirely different schedules.
The philosophy of the committee when it comes to losses has always seemed to be that an early loss is the least backbreaking that a loss can be. A team has plenty of time to bounce back from that loss and show steady improvement. At the end of the year, an early loss is often dismissed because “they’re a completely different team now.”
That thinking isn’t exactly an objective standard–after all, a loss is a loss at any point of the year. However, a loss towards the end of the year leaves a bad taste in the mouth of the committee, and they tend to be less forgiving of those.
That bodes well for LSU. If you’re going to drop a game, it’s good that it’s at the beginning of the season. There’s plenty of time for LSU to perform well in its conference schedule and make the CFP.
LSU’s loss was also against a top-10 opponent, and if Florida State continues to have a successful season, the loss will be looked on more favorably than if the Seminoles return to earth as a middling team, although it is concerning that LSU didn’t look very competitive.
However, history isn’t in LSU’s favor. There has been only one team ever that has lost an early season non-conference matchup and still went on to make the CFP: 2014 Ohio State, who went on to win the championship in the CFP’s inaugural year.
Several other teams have come close to doing that. In 2017, Ohio State lost a marquee September matchup with Oklahoma but still finished the season ranked No. 5. If not for a midseason loss to unranked Iowa, the conference champion Buckeyes likely would’ve made the CFP over Alabama, who failed to make its conference championship that year.
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Also in 2017, Auburn lost to Clemson in non-conference play but nearly made the CFP despite a midseason loss to LSU because of two wins over teams ranked No. 1 in the nation in Georgia and Alabama. Auburn entered the SEC championship ranked No. 2 despite two losses, but the Tigers failed to seal the deal as they lost the rematch to Georgia in Atlanta.
In 2021, Ohio State dropped its second game to Oregon but entered its rivalry week matchup ranked No. 2 in the country with a great chance of making the CFP. The team then lost to Michigan, who would go on to win the conference and make the playoff in its place.
Even 2022 LSU had an outside chance of making the playoff despite its season-opening loss to Florida State and a midseason loss to Tennessee. Last year, had LSU won games against Texas A&M and Georgia in the SEC championship, the Tigers would surely have been represented in the CFP.
Each of these scenarios show that it’s possible to overcome an early season non-conference loss, but they also demonstrate that it’s extremely difficult. All these teams had a clear path, but they couldn’t seal the deal, which points to a larger idea: they weren’t good enough.
More often than not, a highly ranked team that loses an early game spends the rest of the season in mediocrity and fades into the background of the CFP landscape. Florida State’s 2017 team, ranked No. 3 at the time, lost its opener to No. 1 Alabama and never recovered, finishing 7-6 and parting ways with head coach Jimbo Fisher.
There’s a long list of teams that started their seasons with high expectations, dropped an early game and never returned to national relevance for the rest of the year.
The teams above were fortunate to even challenge for a CFP spot into November after early losses. Most are not that lucky.
The reason these teams fade out and the reason even the ones that stay relevant fail to finish the job is, plain and simple, because the teams weren’t good enough.
It’s perfectly within the realm of possibility for a team to make the CFP despite an early loss. It’s unlikely, though, because early losses are often not flukes, as much as the fans and the teams would like to think otherwise. They’re usually indicative of larger issues with the team that aren’t likely to just go away. One loss doesn’t end a season, but the problems that led to that loss do.
LSU faces an uphill battle to make the CFP or even to remain relevant in the conversation. The team needs to address and solve its issues, and, most likely, it needs to win out or at least win the SEC championship if it wants to make the playoff.
The path to the CFP, which demands perfection, becomes impossibly narrow after an early loss. The margin for error completely disappears. The course of action becomes to win out, or else.
As Brian Kelly alluded to in his press conference following the loss, LSU just might not be good enough.
