College football’s conferences will never be the same after this offseason, and it probably won’t change a thing.
Oregon and Washington are leaving the Pac-12 to join UCLA and USC as the newest members of the Big Ten. Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado will be joining the Big 12 while Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 for the SEC.
The Pac-12 now only has four members: Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington.
But what does all this mean, besides the fact that it’s not a good idea to name your conference after the number of teams in it?
Well, the impact the realignments will have on historic rivalries, fans’ enjoyment and school finances is all still up in the air. The impact it will have on the national championship isn’t. That’s because it won’t impact the national championship.
The SEC will still send one or two teams to the college football playoff. The SEC team(s) will be joined by Ohio State and/or Clemson and then maybe there will be a new, exciting school to root for that sneaks in.
The new, exciting team will get stomped in the first round or somehow pull off a miracle and make it to the national championship. In the case where the little guy makes it to the championship, everyone will be excited and hopeful that a new team will finally break through and win it all.
Then, the little guy will get beaten so bad on the biggest stage people will start wishing they never even pulled off that upset in the first round.
I know what you’re thinking, “TCU competed for the national championship! They made it to the national championship game and could’ve won it all!” Making it to a championship is not the same thing as competing for one.
TCU had a great season, but it was a one in a million shot that it even made it to the playoffs. Then it had to have even more things fall its way to make it out of the semifinal game. Then it was an even longer shot to beat Georgia. That’s like needing to win the lottery three times in a row. Sure, it could happen, but don’t hold your breath.
The national championship game has been won by an SEC school, Ohio State or Clemson every year since the playoffs started.
Conference realignment won’t change this.
There’s already a secret conference that many fans don’t even realize their favorite team isn’t in: the conference of teams that actually have a shot at a championship.
There are only around 18 or 20 schools that actually compete for the national championship every year. Then, there are around 10 to 15 teams that think they compete, but they don’t really, such as TCU.
Conference realignment is an attempt by those 20 or so schools to put themselves with the other teams that have a shot and for the 10 or so schools that think they have a shot to try and join them.
Of course, big schools know that if they want to make it to the playoffs, they must have a good resume at the end of the season. Part of that resume is playing against the other big schools. What better way to guarantee you have a shot at the playoffs then beating your competition head-to-head?
Top recruits know if they want to win a national championship, they have to sign with one of these big schools. So, the big schools compete with the other big schools for the top recruits.
It’s not hard to imagine all the schools that actually compete, eventually forming a super conference of around 30 teams and excluding the other smaller schools. But that would just be a formality. The biggest schools already exclude the smaller schools, they just haven’t told them yet.