When “lipstick on a pig” and “sexism” appear in the same presidential campaign advertisement, it’s safe to conclude the silly season of the presidential race has begun — assuming, of course, you don’t believe all politics are rather silly. And if you thought the financial crisis would force the race to turn to policies — you know, important stuff — think again. In a Monday afternoon conference call with reporters, top John McCain strategist Steve Schmidt called The New York Times a “pro-Obama advocacy organization” that is “150 percent in the tank” with the Obama campaign. Schmidt went on to rail about the Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, and his past lobbying activities for credit card companies — a false claim.With the media wrapped up in this tit-for-tat, determining what the state of the race actually is can be difficult.Well, pay no mind to the inane back and forth between the campaigns. And forget about the daily tracking polls, pundits and political ads.If you really want to know where the race stands during this asinine time — look at cookie recipes.For the fifth-consecutive presidential election, Family Circle Magazine has asked the presidential candidates’ spouses — and potential first ladies — for their favorite cookie recipe, and then readers are asked to vote for their favorite first lady’s recipe.Why is this important, you may ask?Because for the last four presidential elections — since the contest began — the winner’s spouse has gone on to win the presidential election.That’s right, 100 percent accuracy.Despite the contest’s impeccable precision, though, I have one problem with their methodology — beyond, of course, the obvious. The contest places too much emphasis on the selection of a specific cookie rather than the actual recipe or baking expertise.In 2004, for example, first lady Laura Bush’s recipe for oatmeal-chocolate chunk cookies edged out Teresa Heinz Kerry’s recipe for pumpkin-spice cookies, and, well, we know who won that election. But who would actually pick pumpkin-spice over oatmeal-chocolate chunk? In what parallel universe would a majority of respondents turn down an oatmeal-chocolate chunk cookie for, what, pumpkin-spice?Kerry had an inherent disadvantage by selecting a riskier cookie.Why not do an Iron Chef-style bake-off where both spouses are given a key ingredient — chocolate, squid ink, whatever — to use in their recipe? That would ensure that strength of recipe usurped the strength of the cookie chosen.Of course, if the contest is about judgment — something we’ve all heard a lot about this election season — then maybe Family Circle Magazine has got it right. This time, Cindy McCain’s recipe for oatmeal-butterscotch cookies is up against Michelle Obama’s recipe for shortbread cookies. Though the official results for the contest won’t be released until Nov. 1 — three days before the general election — the unofficial counter has McCain leading with 4,123 votes to Obama’s 3,440 votes. The magazine carefully notes those numbers may not reflect the mail-in ballots, though.Of course, even an innocent baking contest is not without controversy. Some partisans have noticed striking similarities between McCain’s recipe for oatmeal-butterscotch cookies and Hershey’s recipe for the same cookie — the magazine said McCain got the recipe from an old friend.Some have even openly accused McCain of plagiarism.Unfortunately, what keeps this story from becoming a really juicy bit of gossip is that the contest simply asks for their favorite recipe — regardless of where it came from. And besides, if I were a rich heiress, I probably wouldn’t do anything for myself either. This contest may seem trivial — and in its façade it certainly is — but it helps place into perspective much of what we hear about this election from the media.We live in the age of the insta-pundit, where lengthy speeches, debates, political advertisements, financial crises and global conflicts are reduced to a discussion of which candidate stands to receive the most political benefit.Did Obama’s speech play well with independents? What about his race? Is McCain too old for voters?We are just more likely to hear about this horse-race coverage than we are about, say, policy proposals.But here’s a secret — no one really knows why any of those things are happening. No one really knows what appeals to independent voters, and definitely no one knows who will win this presidential election. The cookie recipes have a higher rate of accuracy than most pundits and analysts. This highlights exactly what these people ought to be saying more often.”I don’t know.”  —-Contact Nate Monroe at [email protected]