Nov. 7 is quickly approaching, and Democrats and Republicans are vying for leadership in both chambers. As midterm elections begin to heat up across the nation, the stakes are higher than in recent history for Republicans. The GOP currently holds the majority in both chambers of Congress and its leadership could be lost if it can not hold on. Public sentiment against President George W. Bush and his administration has swept the nation, and the Foley scandal has not helped their cause. As public attention remains focused on the war in Iraq, congressional scandals and North Korea, the Republicans could lose 20 to 30 seats between the two chambers. “The issue with North Korea is more important, but you can’t educate the U.S. voters about it in 20 days,” Louisiana Democratic Party Chairman Christopher Whittington said. “It takes a lot to educate the public and to get out the message.” According to the Cook Report, an electoral analysis, 25 GOP seats are up for grabs – eight that are open and 17 that incumbents are trying to maintain. In the Senate, the range of possible outcomes is much narrower. The Senate has just seven seats in the Cook Report’s toss up column. This year, voters will also elect 36 governors, 33 senators and all 435 members of the House. “The elections are critical nationwide because momentum is moving from a possibility to probability that Democrats will take control of the Capitol House,” Whittington said. “The Senate is a different story.” With seven congressional districts up for grabs, Louisiana would have a lot to lose according to District 6 incumbent Rep. Richard Baker, R-Baton Rouge. The veteran congressman said a new leadership decision would be made if the Republicans lost control over the house and senate. Baker is the chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises, and Rep. Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport, is a member of the Ways and Means Committee. If the Republicans hold onto the majority in the house, Baker said he will be up for leadership of the Financial Services Committee and McCrery could win leadership in Ways and Means. “The two chairs would be beneficial to the state,” Baker said. “I think we can stay in majority.” Midterm elections often indicate how the public feels about the president’s performance. Before 1994, people talked about the permanent Democratic majority in both chambers. But the same year Republicans took control of the House during President Clinton’s first term. Because of the new balance in the chamber, Clinton struggled to produce a budget on time the following year, resulting in a shut down of the Federal Government, and his healthcare reform plan was tossed out. Almost 12 years later, the same momentum is sweeping through Congress, this time from opposite sides of the aisle. “This is 1994 in reverse,” Whittington said. “It’s a reverse, which is typical of the political landscape.” Public opinion polls of Bush dropped to the lowest of his presidency this year, and due to his low ratings, some Republicans running for office are distancing themselves from Bush. “We are going to have some very close races,” Louisiana Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere Jr. said. “We are going to squeak by in both houses.” Robert Hogan, political science associate professor, said this year’s election is more important than in 1998 and 2002 largely because what is at stake. He said 60 percent of U.S. residents want change in Iraq and said Bush’s failures in reforming social security and border issues does not help. “The president is unpopular,” said Hogan, who teaches American politics. “This election will be a referendum on his policy.” Hogan said he thinks the reason for Bush’s decline is because both party’s have polarized on issues, leaving little progress for legislation. “If the Democrats take over, there will be a clash of ideas in Congress and the president’s agenda will be stopped in its tracks,” Hogan said. “The president will have no option but to adjust if the Democrats take over a chamber.” Rep. Charlie Melancon, D-Houma, District 3, will likely be involved in the state’s closest congressional race. His opposition, state Sen. Craig Romero, R-Houma, has heavy backing from Republicans and the endorsement of popular Rep. Bobby Jindal, R-Metarie and Sen. David Vitter, R-Metarie. Melancon said he thinks a change from one-party control to split-party control would make it harder for any one-party to push its agenda through Congress. He said a split in Congress would force people to work together and said the 1994 elections are the best example. Democrats lost control of the House and Senate because the American people were dissatisfied with the job of Congress and the president in Clinton’s first two years in office according to Melancon. After that, Clinton and the Republican leadership were forced to work together. “Since we’ve had one party control all branches of government for essentially the last six years, we’ve seen spending increase and the surpluses disappear into deficits,” Melancon said. “Our government works best when we work together.”
—–Contact Brennan David at bdavid@lsureveille.com